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Lebanese Crisis Heads for Moscow
// Fouad Siniora Invites Russia to Act as Mediator in Near-Eastern Conflict
For the first time in a long while, Russia is being presented with the opportunity to intervene as a mediator in the Near East. For the last several weeks, Lebanon has been in a state of crisis, with thousands of Hezbollah supporters and other pro-Syrian activists occupying the streets of Beirut and demanding the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's pro-Western government. Tomorrow Mr. Siniora, who refuses to step down, will fly to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Next week, the Kremlin will receive the current Lebanese government's main adversary, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Lebanon Seeks a Solution
On Tuesday the Lebanese parliament issued a challenge to Syria and the opposition Hezbollah movement by voting to approve a United Nations plan that created an international tribunal to investigate the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in Beirut on February 14, 2005. According to Lebanese Information Minister Marwan Hamad, the mid-November decision to put the UN plan before parliament for a vote was made unanimously by the members of Mr. Siniora's cabinet.
The question of the tribunal is one of the main reasons for the current political crisis in Lebanon. The UN investigation, which was first headed by German prosecutor Detlef Mehlis and is now under the direction of Belgian prosecutor Serge Brammertz, has directly accused the Syrian leadership of having a hand in organizing Mr. Hariri's murder. The pro-Syrian forces on the Lebanese political scene, including Syrian-backed President Emile Lahoud, remain adamantly opposed to the tribunal, while for their part the government's anti-Syrian factions are pushing to speed up the tribunal's work in hopes of settling accounts with their political opponents.
Syria's key allies in Lebanon are President Lahoud, the Shiite Amal movement (headed by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri), and Hezbollah, as well as the Christian Free Patriotic Movement of Michel Aoun. A month ago, the government's pro-Syrian ministers resigned en masse shortly before the cabinet was due to review the question of recognizing the international UN tribunal. With Fouad Siniora's cabinet missing 6 of its 28 ministers, President Emile Lahoud declared that the government was unconstitutional and should be replaced by a new cabinet with a popular mandate that would represent all of the country's political factions. Soon Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah joined the fray by leading hundreds of thousands of his supporters onto the streets of Beirut to demand the resignation of the "pro-American" government of Fouad Siniora.
The crisis has already lasted for several weeks, and the number of demonstrators continues to grow. According to the most recent poll, the country is split in two. Of the country's Shiite Muslims, 95% want the immediate resignation of Mr. Siniora and his cabinet, as do 50% of Lebanon's Christians. Supporting the prime minister's government are 87% of Sunni Muslims, 50% of Christians, and most of the Druze population.
The Kremlin Seeks Status
Despite the critical situation in Lebanon, Prime Minister Siniora nevertheless intends to leave Beirut and fly to Moscow today for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. A highly-placed source in the Kremlin told Kommersant that the most recent contact between the Lebanese government and the Russian president was at the end of last week, when Mr. Siniora confirmed that he would be coming to Moscow for a prearranged visit. Clearly, the Lebanese prime minister is counting on help from the Russian authorities in resolving the conflict in Lebanon.
Lately Moscow has repeatedly demonstrated that it has its own take on the Lebanese crisis. In Washington recently, Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Saltanov criticized the UN investigation into Mr. Hariri's murder. "The creation of the tribunal ought not to complicate the domestic political situation in Lebanon," he said. "Unfortunately, that is exactly what has happened." From Mr. Saltanov's comments, it is clear that Moscow is leaning towards the side of Syria, its traditional partner in the Near East.
By all accounts, Fouad Siniora is counting on the long-standing ties between Moscow and Damascus to help resolve the current conflict. It is no secret from the Lebanese prime minister that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is expected to arrive in Moscow for an official visit next Tuesday. Mr. Siniora's government is certain that the fingerprints of the Syrian authorities are all over the ongoing protests in Beirut; moreover, it suspects that among the protestors on the Lebanese capital's main square are a significant number of groups organized by Syrian intelligence services. According to Kommersant's sources in diplomatic circles, Fouad Siniora, with an eye on the sword hanging over his head, is prepared to offer Bashar al-Assad a deal: the anti-Syrian factions in Lebanon will refrain from lobbing accusations at Damascus if Syria agrees to stop trying to overthrow Mr. Siniora's government. The Lebanese prime minister is hoping that Vladimir Putin will intervene as a mediator, since it is widely believed that Syria, a heavy consumer of Russian weapons, cannot afford to flout Russia's authority.
Moscow is delighted at the opportunity to step into the role of mediator in resolving the conflict in Lebanon. Russia has long pushed the idea of Moscow playing host to a large international conference on the situation in the Near East that would bring representatives of Lebanon, Syria, and possibly even Iran, the Palestinian Authority, and Israel together to the table. Thus far, however, Moscow's attempts to assume the position of the leading mediator in the Near East have been unsuccessful: an international conference on the summer war between Lebanon and Israel took place in Rome, though Russia and Italy came up with the idea of holding the conference at roughly the same time. The current moment is a golden opportunity for the Kremlin to demonstrate its influence in the international arena.
That ambition will only be realized, however, if Moscow succeeds in convincing Syria to make some concessions to the Lebanese government. Similarly, according to a Kommersant source in the Kremlin, the talks with Fouad Siniora will be focused on encouraging him to come to a compromise with Syria. Many in Arab diplomatic circles maintain that finding such a compromise will be extremely tricky, since the anti-Syrian coalition in the Lebanese government considers the growing influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon to be the most serious threat facing the country. Thus, if it seems to Prime Minister Siniora that Vladimir Putin is attempting to lobby for Hezbollah's interests, the already delicate negotiations could collapse completely.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 14, 2006
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