For some reason or other, Russians like doing geopolitical charity more than getting down to mundane and dreary problems at home, says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Politics.
Photo: Vasily Shaposhnikov
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Keeping Our Fingers Crossed for America
// A historic chance to pass up…
How can one withdraw from Iraq without throwing it into chaos? This is the question that will fill the remaining two years of George Bush’s presidency and will probably mean a lot for the policy of his successor. Most problems that Washington faces are home-made, and no surprisingly that America’s enemies do no hide their gloat. However, consequences of a possible American failure will take their toll not only on Iraq but on the whole Middle East as well.
The moment the central government in Baghdad loses its overseas support, it will virtually disappear, and the country will split into three parts. Actually, there already exist the Kurdish state, Shiite territories and Sunni territories which have chances to become an Afghanistan under the Taliban. A civil war is unavoidable because of the want to take revenge and share the natural resources fortune.
Dragging its neighbors close to this abyss – not only Iran but also Turkey – is also unavoidable. A Kurdish state would create an acute problem for Ankara. At the same time, Iran is gradually turning into a local super power, which is changing the geopolitical situation in the region. Thus, another angle appears to the problem of nuclear containment. At least Saudi Arabia will be feeling a real imminent threat from Teheran, all the more with the active Shiites in the whole Middle East. The prestige of the United States is undermined in this part of the world, therefore, opportunities for Washington to influence the developments are getting increasingly scarce.
The chaos in Iraq and the emerging Iran will influence the Central Asia as well, sparking instability and uncertainty. A surge of any kind of extremists is also quite possible. Guarantees of security which have so far been a purely hypothetical matter are becoming vital. Is there anyone apart from the weakening United States that can provide this kind of guarantees? There is Russia.
As the situation is exacerbating in Iraq, the Taliban are becoming more active in Afghanistan, which clearly reminds one of the pre-09/11 situation. We should also add the factor here. Any tip in the balance in Iran will put the problem of the population of South Azerbaijan into the forefront, which is fraught with serious consequences for the independent Azerbaijan.
Dramatic developments in Iraq can get Moscow involved in big geopolitics again, not as an energy power but as a participant of global military balance. Temptation of playing the role of a patron for the countries which have recently tried to get away from Russia and were clinging to its rivals will be high.
So, perhaps this is the time for a new historic chance, and the revival of the truly great power will start with the comeback to the Central Asia. In this case, the whole post-Soviet political map may change.
Actually, Russia is not ready for expansion despite its growing confidence. If the expansion will start under external factors, it will be damaging Russia’s internal development as it has been the case for several times before. The temptation of being involved in geopolitical charity is enormous. For some reason or other, Russians feel like it more than getting down to mundane and dreary problems at home. So, let’s keep our fingers crossed for the Americans in Iraq. Perhaps, we’ll have some time to change something to the better in our country before another Historic Chance will come along.
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Politics
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 21, 2006
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