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Stabilization Fund to Go Through Unstable Stage
The export duties on crude will sink to $180.7 a ton from the record $237 a ton starting from December 1, and the world crude prices are going down, as OPEC stepped up crude shipment instead of curtailing it in November. Though the government’s ability to finance budget spending is under no threat yet, the Stabilization Fund will probably gain less than expected next year.
Russia’s export duties on crude are due to shed from $237.6 a ton to $180.7 a ton December 1. The decision to trim duties by $56.9 a ton roots in decline in reference prices of Platts and Argus Media monitoring of September 1 to October 31, explained Alexander Sakovich, deputy chief of the customs payment department at the RF Finance Ministry.
So far, the government has no causes for agitation both in respect of the current and next year’s budgets. 2006 budget was elaborated in view of the $40/bbl average annual price of Urals. The affected party will be the Stabilization Fund, which December receipts will shed by a fourth vs. November on reduced export duties.
But 2007 budget is the budget of pre-election year and its spending predictably widened by more than 1 trillion rubles vs. 2006. So, if the crude prices continue going down in 2007, the plan of Finance Minister Alexey Kudrin to step up Stabilization Fund to 4 trillion rubles will be under the threat of disruption. For its success, the crude should cost at least $61/bbl on average next year.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 20, 2006
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