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Moscow's Trump Card
// The Question of Recognition for South Ossetia
South Ossetia is celebrating the results of the recently held referendum as nothing short of a welcome for this republic, which is currently not recognized by anyone, into the United Nations. Really, though, the elections on Sunday won't change much of anything when it comes to achieving South Ossetia's main goal – receiving international recognition of its independence. And even if no one is saying that out loud, everyone in the republic itself is figuring it out. After all, the referendum looked a lot like a performance, and one that was not very well thought out or executed.
There is more than enough confirmation of that. The decision to carry out a referendum was made two months ago. The question that was put to a vote was clearly formulated in a hurry, for it is strangely put: "Are you in agreement with South Ossetia preserving its current status as an independent state and being recognized by the international community?" If South Ossetia is an independent state, then it should be recognized already, and if it's not recognized, then its independence is only virtual. The question of international recognition should logically not be put to the population of South Ossetia but to the leadership of foreign countries.
The preparations for the referendum were accompanied by the standard trademarks: the discovery of secret plots against the government of South Ossetia and the nabbing of Georgian saboteurs. The results of the vote could have been guessed long before it took place (around 99% voted for independence). It was also not hard to predict the negative reaction of the West, which made it clear that South Ossetia could carry out dozens more referendums but that the practical effect will be as though no referendum had been held at all.
Why, then, did the government of South Ossetia suddenly decide to organize a referendum? And why is Moscow not even trying to hide its sympathy for the undertaking, even while it continues to announce its recognition of Georgia's territorial integrity?
The referendum in South Ossetia took place at a moment when the West was busy advancing the independence of yet another region – Kosovo – and emphatically trying to prevail upon Russia to not oppose it. Moscow, least on the level of official statements, is against independence for Kosovo, but it also is not demonstrating a desire to prevent Kosovo's independence at any price.
Russia would like to use Kosovo's status as a bargaining chip in the service of its own ends. The logic is simple: if Kosovo can be independent, other unrecognized republics in the CIS can hope for independence as well. As they say, the West can deal with its European patrimony, while Russia will look after its own post-Soviet flock.
However, that still doesn't mean that Moscow will recognize South Ossetia's independence (and Abkhazia's and Transdniestr's) immediately after the West recognizes Kosovo's independence. It will be much more beneficial, simpler, and safer for Russia to maintain the current situation, in which the unrecognized republics perfectly fill the role of trump card in Moscow's post-Soviet poker game.
Gennady Sysoyev
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 14, 2006
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