Facing China
// Russians can’t stop looking down on their neighbor
Two thirds of Russia’s territory are located in Asia, but Russians consider themselves Europeans even by the Pacific ocean and near the border with China. In fact, Russians are Europeans who were carried to and left in Asia by history and fate. So, conclusions should be made – but not the conclusions after exotic Eurasian theories about the Asian essence of Russians. It is necessary to understand that Russia’s future depends a lot on the relations with Asian neighbors and on Russia’s approach to them. The most important of these neighbors is China.
Neither Trade, Nor Investment
Russia-China economic and trade cooperation is forming rather unfavorably for Russia. Yet, Russia-China trade is quickly developing: its annual growth in recent years is about 30 percent. This year it will reach $35 billion, according to some estimations. It is quite a lot in comparison to China’s trade with other countries (the U.S., Japan, major EU states), to the level of trade between countries with borders similar in length to China’s (the U.S. and Mexico, the U.S. and Canada), and to the potential possibilities of Russia and China. According to the recent research carried out by Russia’s Center of Strategic Developments, the chief obstacle here is the under-development of Russia’s infrastructure which does not allow to profitably deliver goods both ways. From year to year, the surplus of Russia’s trade balance with China is shrinking. Taking into account the supplies of “gray” and “black” Chinese consumer goods to Russia, there will be no positive balance soon. Russian export is decreasing: Russia produces less and less machines and equipment which might get Chinese businessmen interested. Moreover, Russian factories cannot manage to deal with orders they have already received. Besides, China is gradually replacing traditional goods of Russian export by Chinese-produced goods.
Mutual investment between Russia and China is very insignificant as well. The major obstacle here is the unfavorable investment climate in Russia. Chinese businessmen are very interested in investing in Russia. China has adopted the plan for increasing investment in Russia up to $12 billion by 2020. There already are several large projects: a consortium of Shanghai companies plans to build Baltic Pearl residential neighborhood in St. Petersburg; Park Huamin business center is to be constructed in Moscow; there are some large-scale projects in other regions of Russia as well. However, all these projects became possible owing to the support from local authorities, without which Chinese businessmen do not dare coming to Russia.
Outdated Arrogance
Chinese businessmen’s fear is due both to general problems (corruption, unclear and contradictory laws), and to the attitude particularly to Chinese people. Russian people, as well as Russian officials, do not know modern China. Meanwhile, there still are poor regions in China, but they are not as poor as before. Larger part of China consists of regions with highly developed modern economy. Besides, many rich people appeared in China, and they are surprised to see the poverty in many Russian regions, especially those bordering China. They are also surprised that Russian officials are not interested in Chinese offers. The most surprising fact for them is that Russian officials treat Chinese businessmen very differently from their Western counterparts. I witnessed how a high-placed official in Moscow region, responsible for foreign investment, received an offer from a major Chinese company, fifth in the world for TV set production, to create an assembly factory, investing $30 million. They only asked to find a suitable premise. Any local government in any European country would be happy to accept the offer. But Russian officials said: go look for the premise yourself, if you find it – come to us, and we will think whether to approve of the project or not. The Chinese company built the factory in a different country.
Such arrogance is due to the fact that Russians cannot get used to the idea that Chinese, who were poorer than Russians only 2 or 3 decades ago, are now becoming richer and are looking on Russians not as “older brothers”, but as strange people, European in appearance, but somehow unable to better their life. Russians are already used to the fact that Koreans (South Koreans, naturally) and Japanese are serious people with money, but refuse to look on Chinese even as their equals.
Such historic turn causes various fears, like fear of Chinese “demographic expansion” which might lead to annexing Russian territories, or the fear that China will buy Russian weapons and use them against Russia, forcing it out of Central Asia, etc. These fears are skillfully heated by some regional politicians in Siberia and Far East, who are unable to improve the life of their voters and who found a convenient scapegoat, by ignorant or unprincipled “experts” and nationalistic politicians who earn their points by cheap xenophobia. Moreover, it is being recommended to strengthen armed forces in Far East, and to nearly close the border with China.
It Is Our Own Fault
Russia needs good relations with China both for political and for economic reasons. Bilaterally, there are no problems between Russia and China to prevent Russia’s cooperation with other countries of the region: there are neither territorial problems (like with Japan), nor political (like with North Korea). Internationally, cooperation with China is very important for Russia. China shares Russia’s view of the future world, which is expressed by the notion of multipolarity. Both Russia and China, due to domestic policy reasons, do not like outside advice concerning their inner political affairs, calling such advice the “intervention into domestic affairs”. Russia and China support each other in the struggle against separatism. That is why both countries in recent years stand for preserving the principles of international law and the UN’s status, coordinate UN voting on major world issues, share the same stand on negotiations around Iran, North Korea, and many other burning issues of world politics.
China-related fears are groundless: China never, even in hardest years, set official territorial claims for Russia, and there is no proof of the state encouragement of Chinese migration to Russia. Certainly, it does not mean there are no problems with population outflow, economy, crime, corruption in borderline regions of Russia. Sometimes, Chinese citizens are involved in illegal activities. Yet, these are Russia’s problems, but not China’s. It is not Chinese people, but it is Russians who sell their woods for a song, who do not give birth to children, do not work in building and agriculture, take bribes at the customs and allow the undeclared goods pass, turn the blind eye to passport regime violations, inviting Chinese contract workers, who cannot create favorable conditions for keeping the population in the regions bordering China.
Alexander Lukin, director of the Research Center for East Asia and the SCO of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations (MGIMO) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 09, 2006
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