Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a session of the High State Council of Russia and Belarus on January 25, 2006 in St. Petersburg.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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CIS Presidents Drawn to Moscow for Gas
// Presidents Lukashenko, Aliyev to talk with Putin
On November 10, after a visit to Iran to discuss energy cooperation, Belorussian President Alexander Lukashenko is slated discuss the fuel-energy balance between Belarus and Russia with his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin. The personal participation of the two presidents in the matter is necessitated by the serious disagreement between the governments of the two countries concerning the price of gas for Belarus in 2007. It is expected that the Belorussian president will suggest that Russia sell him fuel for $140 per thousand cubic meters. Gazprom, however, is insisting on $200.
Before President Putin's meeting with President Lukashenko, the Kremlin expects a visit from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, whose recent negotiations regarding gas exports with Belarus and Georgia are making it into a competitor in Moscow's eyes. President Aliyev recently visited Minsk, where he and President Lukashenko discussed the supply of gas to Belarus by Azerbaijan via Ukraine, which would cut Russia out of the deal altogether. A source in the Ukrainian government confirmed that Beltransgaz has approached Ukraine with the request to supply Belarus with gas in 2007 if Russia raises prices for the country from $46.68 per thousand cubic meters to $200, as Gazprom is threatening to do.
In what may turn out to be a replay of last winter's row over gas between Russia and Georgia, Vladimir Putin is expected to discuss the price of gas for Azerbaijan itself with Ilham Aliyev. According to Kommersant's sources, Gazprom will raise the price for gas delivered to Azerbaijan from $110 to $230 per thousand cubic meters if Baku and Moscow cannot agree on terms favorable to Russia for Azerbaijan's export of gas. However, the strength of the Kremlin's influence over Baku is uncertain, since Russian gas accounts for only 1.5 billion cubic meters out of the 10.5 billion cubic meters consumed by Azerbaijan.
With regard to Belarus, Russian ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov has said that the cost of keeping the price of Russian gas low for Belarus may be the sale of a 50% stake in Beltransgaz to Gazprom. The Dutch bank AVN Amro will finish assessing the shares of the Belorussian energy company by November 20. Besides saying that "the variant in which the price for Belarus stays at $46 [per thousand cubic meters] is not being considered," Mr. Surikov has also warned that Russia is preparing to raise Belorussian customs tariffs from $57 to $180 and to secure the transfer of 85% of the duties collected in Belarus to the Russian budget, as was the case until 1999.
In response, a source in the Belorussian government has said that, if the price of gas is raised to $200, Belarus will have to take adequate retaliatory measures, which may include raising the cost of transit for oil and gas, auto transport, and rent for Russian military bases in the country.
Natalia Grib
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 07, 2006
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