The inauguration ceremony of Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin in Chisinau on April 7, 2005.
Photo: www.photo.md
|
 |
Together with Europe, Russia Turns on Moldova
// Attracts Germany and France to Stabilization of Transdneistr Region
Talks were held yesterday in Odessa concerning a settlement for the Transdneistr conflict. The discussion was revived after a long interruption thanks to Moscow's diplomatic interference. It seems that Russia, having breathed life back into the much talked about "Kozak memorandum," has decided to secure for itself a monopoly on the right to decide the problem of Transdneistr. This time, however, the Kremlin is enlisting the support of its friends in Europe to sell its plan for resolving the conflict.
They Reconciled
Yesterday's talks in Odessa were the first in eight months concerning the problem of Transdneistr. They were held at Moscow's insistence and followed the visit earlier this month of Russian deputy foreign minister Grigory Karasin to Chisinau and Tiraspol. Mr. Karasin's round of shuttle diplomacy successfully convinced the two sides to revive their suspended discussions.
However, the representatives of Chisinau and Tiraspol are so far refusing to meet with each other in private. The meeting yesterday took place in the 5+2 format: besides Moldova, Transdneistr, Russia, Ukraine, and the OSCE, observers from the United States and the European Union also participated, although Tiraspol's obstinacy obliged the mediators to meet with the Moldovan and Transdneistran negotiators separately. The authorities in Transdneistr agreed to revive the process of full negotiations only if Moldova and Ukraine rescinded the special customs regime that they have been enforcing at the borders of the separatist region.
The regime in question is the product of a Moldovan-Ukrainian agreement that has been in place since March of this year and that allows the export of goods from Transdneistr to Ukraine only after Moldovan customs gives its permission. Tiraspol calls Chisinau and Kiev's actions an "economic blockade," an opinion that is shared by Moscow. Russia is making every effort to unblock the region, which is friendly to Moscow, and it appears that pressure from Russia has convinced Ukraine to abrogate its agreement with Moldova and to accept cargo from Transdneistr without Moldova's approval. So that Kiev's move is not taken as a unilateral rupture of its agreement with Chisinau, a special formula was devised. "The Ukrainians were in Moscow not long ago. And there appeared a variant of the transit protocol that can solve our problem," Transdneistr Foreign Affairs Minister Valery Litskaj told Kommersant. "This is an international, multilateral document that concerns our republic's external economic activities and that will be presented for signature to all participants in the negotiations."
Meanwhile, those in Chisinau do not want to hear about the transit protocol. There the document is seen as an attempt to establish Transdneistr's legal right to independently conduct foreign trade, and the Chisinau authorities are categorically refusing to sign it. During yesterday's talks in Odessa, Russian diplomats tried persistently to convince their Moldovan colleagues to accept Tiraspol's conditions. According to Valery Nesterushkin, the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry's ambassador for special missions, it is possible to hope for a revival of the dialogue only if "the two sides agree on some reasonable compromises concerning the transit protocol."
They Convinced
In reviving negotiations yesterday between Chisinau and Tiraspol, Moscow scored a tactical victory in the Moldovan matter and assumed the role of chief conciliator of the warring sides. Russia also thus demonstrated to the rest of the negotiators, especially the OSCE, the United States, and the European Union, who wields influence in the region.
Another of the Russian diplomats' achievements was an agreement from the Moldovan side to return to a three-year-old plan for settling the Transdneistr conflict. This plan, known as the "Kozak memorandum," was prepared in 2003 by then-deputy chief of the Putin administration Dmitry Kozak but rejected at the last minute by Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin. Now, however, following Grigory Karasin's visit to Moldova, the authorities in Chisinau have returned to the memorandum and are starting to talk about the possibility of reviving it and using it in the negotiation process. Giving an account of the results of his trip, Mr. Karasin said that the Moldovan leadership had responded positively to the entire list of points in the Kozak plan.
The benefits that Moscow stands to receive if the Russian plan is incorporated as the basis of the settlement of the Transdneistr conflict are obvious. "Russia is pushing the memorandum in order to have the resolution of a heated conflict to boast of," said State Duma deputy Viktor Alsknis, a long-standing lobbyist for Transdneistr's interests in Moscow. "And at the same time it can get a spot in the region for a Russian military base. That is an undoubted plus, but there's a problem: according to its constitution, Moldova is a neutral state, and Voronin is not likely to agree to change the constitution in order to legalize the arrival of Russian soldiers in his country."
Incidentally, the arrival of Russian troops in Transdneistr was one of the reasons that Chisinau rejected the Kozak memorandum three years ago. The West, which is dissatisfied with the conditions of the Russian plan, put pressure on the Moldovan authorities that led President Voronin to refuse to sign the proffered document and to exchange words with Moscow.
They Worked It Out
Meanwhile, an additional and extremely weighty argument for forcing Moldova to be more amenable arose not long ago on the Russian side. In the middle of last month, a referendum on "independence with subsequent unification with Russia" was held in Transdneistr with the active support of Moscow. Fully 97% of the population of the breakaway republic voted in favor of that evolution of events, and it is being suggested to Chisinau that the results of the plebiscite are worthy of full recognition. "An important innovation has occurred in our position and in our diplomatic arguments – the recognition of the legitimacy of the recent expression of the people's will," a source in the Kremlin told Kommersant. "The democratic nature and the transparency of the referendum in Transdneistr are above reproach. In what manner and with what speed will the international community want to recognize and realize this legitimacy – that's another question."
Besides frightening Chisinau with the possibility of the recognition of the Transdneistr referendum's results, the Kremlin is also carrying out serious preparations for working with several Western partners. According to information obtained by Kommersant's sources, during Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Germany the Russian president discussed the topic of Transdneistr with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In particular, the discussion focused on a coordinated approach by Russia and Germany, with the later addition of France, to work on the resolution of the conflict along the lines of the Kozak memorandum. Moreover, according to Kommersant's sources, possible candidates for overseers of this peacekeeping work were discussed at the negotiations in Odessa. It is being suggested that the mission be entrusted to EU senior foreign affairs and security representative Javier Solana.
Russia's success in luring Germany and France to its side on the question of the resolution of the conflict in Transdneistr will significantly boost Russia's lobbying power in favor of its own plan. Russian proposals issuing from the troika of Moscow-Berlin-Paris will resound much more weightily than otherwise might be the case.
Vladimir Solovyov
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 19, 2006
|
|
|
