Vladimir Putin’s energy initiatives and calls of the French-German council for Russia to keep to the EU Energy Charter have made analysts to reconsider the energy industry of the European Union. Russian President Vladimir Putin (3d left) and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (3d right) attend a press conference at the Green Arch museum in Dresden.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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Experts Predict Black-Out Winters in Europe
Russian gas exports to Europe will grow no more than 25 percent and will not surpass 200 billion cu. before 2016, a report of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies says. Russian is unable to cover a growing energy demand of Europe, and as soon as in 2010 the European Union will face a gas shortage. As early as in winter 2006 it will take its toll on the European energy industry, sparkling power shortfalls, analysts from Cap Gemini says.
Vladimir Putin’s new energy initiatives and calls of the French-German council for Russia to keep to the EU Energy Charter have made analysts to reconsider the energy industry of the European Union. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES) released a report on Friday examining the short-term outlook of the European energy market. The researchers say that Gazprom will be unable to keep on increasing gas exports to Europe in 2010. As soon as in 2016, Europe will be unable to cover the growing energy demand. As early as in 2010, Europe may experience first breaks in supplies.
The OIES base its calculation on the dynamics of Gazprom’s domestic supplies. British experts say that Russian gas exports to Europe will plateau at around 200 billion cu. meters in 2016 and will not rise thereafter.
Predictions of Oxford scholars echo a review of the Cap Gemini consulting company on the EU power energy market. Cap Gemini forecasts that stable gas supplies to Europe will have a negative effect on the power energy sector. The average power capacity reserve in the EU fell to 4.8 percent from 5.4 percent in 2005 as gas prices in Europe went up 38 percent. The consulting firm predicts a crisis in the industry in 2010. What is more, EU energy systems may see hikes on power energy prices as well as energy shortfalls in 2006-2007.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 14, 2006
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