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A Nuclear Obstacle Course
// America Faces Stumbling Blocks on the Road to Iran
World politics today is reminiscent of a race on an obstacle course. Who's running is obvious: the United States of America. Where it's running to is also pretty clear: in the direction of Iran. The US came up with its basic goal a long time ago: to bring down the regime of the ayatollahs. And Washington is moving towards its target. It's true, though, that the US has had to deal with many petty irritations strewn along its path. And these petty irritations have a way of turning out to be traps thrown out by Iran or its allies.
The classic trap was the war in Lebanon. At the beginning of the summer, Washington was convincing its partners to impose sanctions on Iran. But then the Iranian regime's bosom buddy in both spirit and financing, Hezbollah, provoked a large-scale military campaign in the Near East. As everyone raced to rake over the Near-Eastern mess, Iran was temporarily forgotten.
Then Washington's attention was diverted to Georgia. It is difficult to suggest that the crisis in relations between Moscow and Tbilisi was organized by some third party, but the appearance of problems in the Caucasus was fraught with new hindrances for the US in its campaign against Iran. By controlling Georgia, the Americans would get open access to northern Iran.
The Korean demarche is a new and acute blow to the Americans' plans. It's no secret that the US has no designs at the moment on North Korea. America had no intention of dealing with this problem right now. No one was planning to start a war against Pyongyang – otherwise South Korean minister Ban Ki-moon would not have received a majority in the voting for UN general secretary.
The North Korean dossier had been filed away, and all that was required of Kim Jong-il was that he didn't stick his head up and didn't mess with Washington's preparations for the Iranian operation. But he suddenly, for some reason, called down a firestorm upon himself. How can Washington now blame Teheran for any infractions when it is faced with a real violator? How can Iran be blamed for anything on the basis of no proof and only indirect evidence, when the North Korean regime has so openly provided proof of its guilt and is so obviously inviting punishment?
Of course, Pyongyang will not be seriously punished. It's not likely that there will be military action or strikes on North Korean nuclear installations. But serious diplomatic attacks on Iran will also have to be shelved, at least while the North Korean problem is still taking center stage and while there is no progress on the continuation of the six-sided talks.
It can be argued that Pyongyang carried out its nuclear test with some prompting from Iran. It is difficult to judge how close the relations are between the two outcast countries and whether someone – say, Beijing – might have helped them to find a common language.
What is impossible to doubt is that China has no use for the US machinations against Iran and that it would gladly throw a wrench in the works to whatever degree it can. Beijing thus has little to complain about with regard to the North Korean tests.
The Bush administration still has two years left to realize the plans of the current master of the White House. But Iran no doubt has many more ideas up its sleeve of obstacles that it can throw in the path as the US rushes towards its dearest goal.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 10, 2006
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