South Korean soldiers patrol along the barbed-wire fence in Paju, north of Seoul, near the demilitarized zone (DMZ) of Panmunjom, South Korea, on Monday, October 9, 2006.
Photo: AP
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North Korea Conducts Its First Nuclear Test
Yesterday, October 9, North Korea announced that it had successfully conducted a nuclear weapons test. Two hours before the blast, Pyongyang warned Moscow that the test would take place. As a result, Defense Ministry Sergey Ivanov possessed more or less accurate information concerning the character of the tests carried out, and he reported on them to President Putin. The Russian president and other world leaders condemned the tests, but Pyongyang called them "the people's happiness."
"Happiness to Our Military and People"
"Our research subdivision safely and successfully carried out an underground nuclear test on October 9," read a statement released by the Central Telegraph Agency of Korea (KNCA). "This nuclear test will go down in history as an event that brought happiness to our military and people. This nuclear test is an investment in the maintenance of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and in the surrounding region. The test was carried out one hundred percent on the basis of indigenous wisdom and technology."
The first North Korean nuclear explosion in history was carried out in Gilju at 10:35:26 AM local time (01.35 AM GMT). It triggered a magnitude-3.58 earthquake that was recorded in South Korea, Japan, the United States, Australia, and Russia. Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov reported to Putin yesterday that the force of the underground blast was equal to between 5 and 15 kilotons.
The time of the test and the power of the device were determined by technology in the 12th administrative region of the Defense Ministry that is capable of detecting nuclear blasts. This was reported yesterday by the region's commander, Lieutenant General Vladimir Verkhovtsev. The Russian detection of the blast was chiefly aided, according to information obtained by Kommersant, by the fact that Pyongyang informed Moscow about the imminent test via diplomatic channels two hours before it occurred. Kommersant's source in the military sees that move as a sign of trust from the North Korean side: in July of this year, conversely, Pyongyang did not warn Moscow that it was planning to test ballistic missiles, though the rockets fell into the Russian economic zone, close to the territorial waters of the Russian Federation.
Pyongyang also warned China about the upcoming test, but did so only 20 minutes before the blast. Beijing immediately informed the United States, Japan, and South Korea.
There was no information available yesterday concerning whether Moscow shared its prior knowledge of the tests with any of its partners abroad.
According to a source in the 12th administrative region of the Defense Ministry, an analysis carried out by specialists in the wake of the blast using seismic data gathered by technology capable of detecting nuclear explosions confirmed that the blast was indeed an underground nuclear explosion (this interpretation was especially corroborated by the character and direction of the dispersion of waves from the blast).
In the opinion of experts, North Korea used a plutonium device in which a sphere of plutonium-239 is compressed by blasts of equal strength on all sides. The bomb was of the same design as the one exploded by the United States in the world's first atomic test in 1945. The blast requires 5 kg of plutonium (an amount approximately equal in size to an egg yolk). North Korea, according to its media, has as much as 40 kg of weapons-grade plutonium. In the opinion of Western experts, the device exploded by North Korea cannot be mounted on any of the missiles Pyongyang currently possesses – it is too large – but it would be possible to deploy such a device in a bomber plane.
The North Korean media reported that the test was carried out with full safety precautions and that there were no radiation leaks. Immediately after the explosion, two SU-24MR reconnaissance planes were dispatched on Moscow's orders from the Alekseevka airfield in Primorsky Krai. The planes, which were equipped with detectors to measure changes in the radiation background, flew for several hours over Russian territorial waters and the western part of the Sea of Japan. No changes in the radiation background were detected, upon which Mr. Ivanov reported to President Putin that "the ecological situation is within normal limits, including in Primorsky Krai."
Towards evening on October 9 the South Korean media, referring to South Korean intelligence services, reported that North Korea is preparing for another nuclear test. At a hearing in a parliamentary commission, intelligence services chief Kim Seong-kyu reported that intense activity involving military automobiles was noted in the region where the test was carried out, which may mean that another test is likely to take place.
"Human Bullets and Bombs"
The world has long awaited a nuclear test by North Korea, although many did not believe that it would happen so soon. According to the American media, as recently as the end of last summer the CIA noticed an increased level of activity at Gilju in Hamgyong province in the northeast region of North Korea, but there was still the possibility that all of this activity was no more than a hoax concocted by Pyongyang to force Washington to agree to direct two-sided talks.
In September the British newspaper Sunday Telegraph reported that Kim Jong-il had purportedly informed Russia and China that a nuclear test would take place in the near future.
On October 3 the KNCA published a statement from the North Korean Foreign Ministry claiming that, under the threat of nuclear war from the United States and the attempts made by the US to strangle North Korea with economic sanctions, Pyongyang does not see any option other than to carry out a nuclear test. The statement also said that North Korea, as a responsible country in possession of nuclear weapons, will never use them first and will not give them to any other country.
The international community reacted furiously to this statement. The official representative of the United States in the United Nations, John Bolton, said that if North Korea gains an atomic bomb, the country will not have a future. Japan called on the UN Security Council to immediately impose sanctions on North Korea. China, South Korea, and Russia announced that they are categorically opposed to North Korea carrying out nuclear tests, but the three countries called on all sides involved in the process of defusing the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula to remain calm.
Indirect signs hinting that North Korea was preparing to carry out a nuclear test in the immediate future began to appear at the end of last week. On Friday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il appeared in public for the first time after a three-week absence. The last time he "disappeared" was in May and June of this year, immediately before the missile launches that occurred on July 4, America's Independence Day. The location that he chose for his public appearance on Friday only reinforced suspicions that North Korea was serious in its announcements concerning a nuclear test: he met in Pyongyang with commanders of the military. He thanked the battalion commanders and political workers "for strengthening the North Korean people's army into an unbeatable revolutionary force," and they in turn swore to give "their lives in battle for the respected commander-in-chief comrade Kim Jong-il" and to become "human bullets and bombs."
Yet another reason to suspect that North Korea was making serious preparations was communications problems suffered by representatives of foreign news agencies in Pyongyang. The last time such a problem was observed was in the period preceding and during July's missile launches.
The nuclear test was clearly planned by Pyongyang to coincide with the ninth anniversary of the elevation of Kim Jong-il to the leadership of the Korean Workers' Party (which was celebrated on Sunday). The test was also meant as a celebratory salute on the occasion of today's 61st anniversary of the founding of the ruling party.
"A Dangerous New Era"
The news of North Korea's nuclear test shocked the whole world. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was in Seoul at the time of the test, and US President George Bush discussed the event for fifteen minutes by telephone and agreed to take "decisive action." "We are entering a new and dangerous nuclear era," said Mr. Abe, who called the North Korean test "unforgivable."
South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun announced that North Korea's actions would seriously complicate relations between the two Koreas. Yesterday Seoul cancelled some scheduled humanitarian aid to North Korea and brought its armed forces to a heightened state of combat readiness.
A "firm protest" concerning North Korea's actions was lodged by China's Foreign Affairs Ministry, which noted that North Korea "has ignored the widespread opposition of the international community and has brazenly conducted a nuclear test." In a meeting with government officials, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced, "Russia unequivocally condemns the test in North Korea, and the matter concerns not only Korea itself but also the huge damage that has been done to the process of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction all over the world." Similar reactions were heard from NATO, the European Union, Asia, and Australia.
Nevertheless, it is not very likely that Kim Jong-il's decision to carry out a nuclear test was taken unilaterally. It is not impossible that Pyongyang consulted on the matter with Beijing: at the end of September, the South Korean media reported a supposed secret visit made by the North Korean leader to China. However, there were no official reports of any such visit. In the last week there has been no information concerning any contacts between North Korea and any other country – discounting, of course, the arrival of the new North Korean ambassador in Moscow and the attendance of the North Korean deputy foreign minister at the UN General Assembly session in New York.
By all accounts, Pyongyang did not decide by accident to carry out a nuclear test in the exact week when the UN Security Council is debating the Iranian nuclear problem. In opening a "second front," North Korea may not have to fear a quick and decisive response from the international community. Pyongyang is convinced that Washington will prefer a diplomatic resolution of the problem and might even open direct communication with North Korea, something that Washington has so far refused to do.
Ivan Safronov, Andrey Ivanov, Peter Yozh
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 10, 2006
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