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The World Dances under Threat of North Korean Bomb
// North Korea Toys with the Bomb
International Community Attempts to Avert a Catastrophe
International headlines at the end of last week were full of news concerning North Korea's planned nuclear test, which was expected to happen today. The North Korean nuclear threat provoked a surge of diplomatic activity around the world. On Friday, the UN Security Council backed a resolution put forth by Tokyo that calls on North Korea to cancel the test, andJapanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Saturday flew to Beijing and Seoul to discuss the "Korean problem." Despite the fact that the test has yet to happen, observers consider the threat to be real as never before.
United By a Single Threat
The joining of forces by Pyongyang's closest neighbors in an attempt to avert the threat of a North Korean nuclear test was the main topic of Shinzo Abe's first official trip abroad, which began yesterday with visits by the new Japanese prime minister to China and South Korea. An unexpected outcome of the possibility of North Korea's first nuclear test has been the necessity of Beijing and Tokyo taking tentative steps towards each other in the face of a common danger. Official contacts at the highest levels, which were interrupted five years ago following former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's first controversial visit to the Yasukuni Temple outside of Tokyo, have been restored. "We must send North Korea a clear signal that if it does not cancel its plans to test nuclear weapons, it will face further international isolation, and its position will deteriorate even more," said Mr. Abe, laying out the main objective of his talks with Chinese Premier Hu Jintao yesterday. In turn Hu Jintao, greeting Mr. Abe in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, declared that the Chinese leadership is prepared to cooperate constructively with Tokyo on all questions, including the Korean crisis. "This visit will be a turning point in our relations," promised the Chinese leader. At the same time, he made it clear that Beijing is ready to put aside its earlier differences of opinion with Tokyo regarding the Korean problem, differences which Pyongyang skillfully exploited during the now-suspended six-sided talks between Russia, China, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, and the United States.
Today Mr. Abe will continue to discuss the question of Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions in Seoul, where he is to meet with South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun.
It is Tokyo that has recently taken the initiative in working out a common stance for the world powers in the face of the North Korean threat. Last Tuesday, North Korea's leadership delivered a shock to the international community by announcing its intentions to carry out a nuclear test in the immediate future. Claiming that its actions are in response to a threat from the United States, Pyongyang resorted to its traditional tactics of portentous but vague hints: the exact date of the test was not specified, throwing diplomats into consternation as they raced to guess when the test would take place. The consensus was that the nuclear "zero hour" would be Sunday, October 8, when Pyongyang celebrates the ninth anniversary of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's elevation to the head of the Korean Workers' Party. Throughout the course of last week, the world saw a surge of international diplomacy aimed at using the few days remaining before Sunday to coerce North Korea into canceling its bomb test.
The Security Council's Warning
An attempt to formulate a general approach for the international community in tackling the Korean threat was undertaken last Friday during an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council in New York, at which the Security Council discussed a proposal from Tokyo. The document, which was approved with few changes, was disseminated by the current chairman of the Security Council, Japanese Ambassador to the UN Kenzo Oshima, and demands that Pyongyang discard its plans for nuclear tests and immediately return to the table for the six-sided talks suspended in November of last year. An accompanying statement issued by the Security Council states that Pyongyang's nuclear tests "threaten the peace, stability, and security of the region and beyond" and "bring universal condemnation from the international community." The statement also notes that a refusal to comply with the given recommendations will be cause for further action from the Security Council "in accordance with North Korea's responsibilities under the charter of the United Nations."
Despite the severe tone of the statement approved in New York, the world's leading powers have still not managed to reach unanimity on the question of how to deal with North Korea. When agreement was being reached on the content of the statement, participants in the discussion turned down a proposal from the United States to include a reference to the 7th article of the United Nations charter, which stipulates the possible introduction of sanctions, including military strikes if approved by a separate resolution from the Security Council. Commenting on the situation, US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton noted that the absence of references to the 7th article in the text of the statement adopted by the Security Council should not be "incorrectly interpreted by North Korea." "We think the main point is that North Korea should understand how strongly the United States and other council members feel that they should not test this nuclear device," said Mr. Bolton. He also indicated that if Pyongyang decides to risk carrying out nuclear tests, "it will be a very different world a day after the test."
Notably, the question of who at the moment occupies a more consistent and principle position in relations with Pyongyang was the cause of a offstage spat between John Bolton and his Chinese counterpart, Ambassador Wang Guangya. On the eve of the discussion of the statement in the Security Council, John Bolton lobbed stones in the direction of China and Russia, saying that he could not "imagine how North Korea's defenders in the Security Council will behave." "I do not know what he had in mind, but I believe that not a single country in the world will defend [North Korea's] bad behavior," said Wang Guangya.
With a Feeling of Nuclear Patriotism
Meanwhile, Beijing's undisguised displeasure with North Korea's nuclear disobedience did not go unnoticed in Pyongyang. Yesterday comments referencing North Korean diplomatic sources claimed that recent statements made by Chinese representatives had angered North Korean generals, who intended to teach Beijing a lesson: to show that North Korea no longer needs Chinese patronage, since, so to speak, North Korea has matured to the point that it can protect itself independently. It is also suggested that the carrying-out of nuclear tests in the near future would be, for North Korean "hawks," a fulfillment of the desire to show their strength and patriotism.
Demonstrations of such patriotism were on display yesterday in Pyongyang as the country celebrated an especially significant date: the ninth anniversary of the elevation of Kim Jong Il to the leadership of the country's ruling Korean Workers' Party. And although the nuclear test that was forecast for that day did not take place, that morning the country's leading media outlets released fresh panegyrics addressed to the Supreme Leader praising, among his many other virtues, his readiness to strengthen the country's defense capabilities and his refusal to yield in the nuclear question. This means that in the next week North Korea will continue to keep the world on its toes, begging the question of when the "nuclear zero hour" will toll.
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 09, 2006
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