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Finding Your Way Forward
// The price of the question
Mikhail Saakashvili's speech in New York is a sign of the beginning of the decisive diplomatic offensive against Russia's position not only in Georgia and the Transcaucasus, but in the CIS as a whole. That all-fronts offensive may be the most massive in the decade and a half since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It would be naïve to assume that Tbilisi, Moscow's main accuser, will play the central role in it. No. Tbilisi has only to internationalize the problem by shouting SOS to the world. After that, others should step in to solve the problem – those who first reacted to Tbilisi's call, the West and NATO.
Their strategic geopolitical goal is to deprive Russia of its remaining role as the main and in fact only peacekeeper in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Then they will start to squeeze Moscow out of Transdniestria the same way. It is symbolic that Saakashvili's speech at the 61st session of the UN General Assembly in New York was made the day after the NATO Council made the decision to begin an “intensive dialog” with Georgia, jumpstarting the process of accepting the Transcaucasian republic into its ranks. The order of events explains much. Now it can be understood where Saakashvili's moral force comes from to go from the defensive to the attack in his dispute with Moscow in sight of the whole world.
But for a better understanding of the situation, it is important not to forget recent events that took place in Brussels. The NATO Council's decision to begin “intensive dialog” with Georgia as international pressure on Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia increases was made just days after Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko spoke at NATO headquarters and explained to alliance leaders that Ukraine's accession in the organization would not take place in the foreseeable future.
It is impossible to imagine that Kiev's decision did not have some influence on NATO relations with Tbilisi. International relations are a series of interfitting parts. An unexpected setback in the process of Ukraine's integration into NATO would force the organization's leadership to speed up a different integration. Little Georgia is not such a valuable strategic goal for Brussels. But good things come in small packages. All the CIS, especially its neighbors Armenia and Azerbaijan, will be watching Georgia closely. They will draw their own conclusions from Georgia's “intensive dialog.”
Winning back Moscow's important geopolitical gains in Ukraine is not just a matter of honor or prestige for NATO. NATO does not intend to give up to Russia the strategic initiative it won in Eastern Europe in the 1990s and held by it firmly since then to the last few moments.
The struggle for influence in the former Soviet Union is heating up sharply. The stakes are growing proportionally.
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 25, 2006
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