Shinzo Abe bows as he acknowledges applause from Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers upon winning a landslide victory on September 20, 2006 in Japan's ruling party presidential vote at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo. Nationalist political blue-blood Abe won 464 of the 702 votes counted, a majority of 66 percent, a triumph that nearly guarantees his election as prime minister next week.
Photo: AP
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Japan's "Crown Prince"
// The Political Dynasty of Junichiro Koizumi's Successor
Yesterday the ruling Japanese Liberal Democratic Party chose its new leader. As was expected, Junichiro Koizumi's successor will be Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, who will assume the prime minister's seat next week. He has a firm reputation as a hawk, and analysts are already predicting an intensification of the hard line in Japanese diplomacy. A day before his election as the head of the ruling party, Mr. Abe threatened a full reassessment of the country's relations with Russia.
The Successor
The 64-year-old Junichiro Koizumi is retiring at the peak of his popularity: in several recent polls, more than 60% of respondents supported his performance as prime minister. However, the prime minister has decided not to challenge the bylaws of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which limit its leader to no more than two successive three-year terms.
Before his departure, Mr. Koizumi named a successor: at the beginning of September, he stated openly that he would prefer to see his deputy Shinzo Abe, who has long far surpassed the other candidates for the post in popularity, assume the party's top spot. The prime minister's advice did not go unheeded: in yesterday's elections, Mr. Abe received 464 out of 702 votes from the LDP's parliamentary deputies and representatives of the local party organizations. His closest rival, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso, received only 136 votes.
Mr. Koizumi's cabinet will depart for good on September 26, and on that day Mr. Abe will be officially elected by parliament to the post of prime minister. The outcome of this second vote is hardly in doubt, since the LDP and its smaller partners in the centrist ruling coalition enjoy absolute majorities in both houses of parliament.
The path of Shinzo Abe to the country's top position has been unusually short: he was first elected to parliament in 1993, and his single cabinet post has been his current job of chief secretary. The future prime minister, who turns 52 on September 21, will be the youngest Japanese prime minister in 65 years: he is the country's first government leader who was born after WWII.
However, the common nickname for the future prime minister – "The Prince" – does not so much recall his relative youth as the fact that he is the scion of one of Japan's most influential post-war political dynasties, a clan that has included both liberals and hawks. Those who know Mr. Abe say that he is closer to the latter.
The Crown Prince
The regional museum of Yamaguchi Prefecture, the hereditary stronghold of Mr. Abe's family, displays busts of two native sons who went on to become prime minister. They are both relatives of Mr. Abe. His grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, held the post of commerce and industry minister in Japan's wartime government. He was arrested by the American occupying forces in 1945 as a suspected war criminal but was never tried, and in 1952 he returned to politics to become one of the founders of the LDP and, within five years, prime minister as well. In May of 1960 Mr. Kishi pushed the ratification of the current version of the military and political accord between Japan and the United States through a hostile parliament on the verge of a takeover by opponents of the alliance with Washington.
The great-uncle of "The Prince," Eisaku Sato, also served as prime minister; he received the Nobel Peace Prize for his leading role in Tokyo's decision to renounce the pursuit of nuclear weapons. The new prime minister's father, Shintaro Abe, who headed the Japanese foreign ministry, was also considered one of the leading lights of the LDP. His dream to lead the country's government was cut short only by his untimely death from pancreatic cancer in 1991.
Shinzo Abe resembles his father, an acknowledged liberal, only in appearance. Unlike his father, the future prime minister is considered a strong nationalist. As people are saying in Japan, "he clearly inherited his grandfather's genes" – a reflection of the combination of his right-wing views and his firm stance on Japan's alliance with the United States.
He owes his popularity in politics to his demand for an investigation into the matter of the violent abduction of Japanese citizens by the North Korean intelligence service in the 1970s and 1980s. In the capacity of "defender" of the kidnapped citizens, he appeared regularly on television screens across Japan, and he recently caused a sensation by calling for consideration of the possibility of carrying out a preemptive military strike on North Korea if the country begins to prepare its ballistic missiles for launch.
Mr. Abe favors scrapping the country's pacifist constitution, which places severe restrictions on the development and deployment of military force by Japan. He proposes to create a strong intelligence service along the lines of the American CIA and to bring Japan's alliance with the US to a new level of mutual cooperation. In the opinion of the future prime minister, it is time for Japan to cease its constant shows of remorse for its wartime transgressions. Mr. Abe, like Mr. Koizumi, regularly visits Tokyo's Yakusuni shrine, which is dedicated to the 2.5 million Japanese who died serving the emperor in the Second World War. Beijing and Seoul see these visits as attempts at a revisionist version of history.
However, Mr. Abe has already announced that one of his foreign policy goals will be the "building of bridges" with China and South Korea. Japan's dialogue with these countries has stalled under Mr. Koizumi, mainly due to the prime minister's continuing visits to Yakusuni. In the opinion of experts, once Mr. Abe becomes prime minister he will be obliged to cease his pilgrimages to the shrine and to generally "hold his tongue" so as to not further complicate Japan's relations with its neighbors. In general, however, the course of the country's future leader remains a mystery: Mr. Abe has thus far preferred to play his cards close when it comes to the concrete directions that his policies will take.
Nevertheless, Mr. Abe has been forthright and severe on the subject of relations with a certain country, particularly in his remarks on the day before his election as the leader of the ruling party. That country is Russia.
The Exposer
On Tuesday, Japan's future prime minister reacted harshly to the decision of the Russian ministry of natural resources to withdraw its ecological stamp of approval for the "Sakhalin-2" project. The Japanese companies Mitsui (25%) and Mitsubishi (20%) both have stakes in the project. In response, Mr. Abe threatened Moscow with a full reassessment of the bilateral relations between the two countries. "Heavy delays in this project, which is a symbol of Japanese-Russian cooperation, will have unavoidable negative consequences for all of our relations with Russia," he said in a special press conference in Tokyo.
The severe tone of the incoming prime minister's address to Moscow took many by surprise, and not only in Japan. After all, until now Mr. Abe has spoken little about Russia and has never resorted to such hawkish rhetoric. During one of his recent appearances, he spoke evenly about the evolution of relations with Russia "in all directions" and about the resolution of a territorial dispute between the two countries. Mr. Abe also turned down an invitation to conduct a pointed inspection by boat of the South Kurils in support of Tokyo's claim on the islands. Several experts remember how the father of the new LDP leader took a positive stance on the development of contacts with Moscow. In addition, it should be taken into consideration that Mr. Abe is a member of an internal LDP faction headed by former prime minister Yoshiro Mori that actively supports cooperation with Russia.
The necessity of resolving Japan's pressing problems with China, South Korea, and North Korea will presumably not leave Mr. Abe much time or energy in the near future for serious initiatives concerning Russia. Tokyo looks likely to continue on its current course: demands for the "return of the northern territories" will periodically surface, alongside the continuing gradual evolution of contacts with Moscow in other areas. However, in the event that situations arise in which Japan's strategic interests appear threatened, it can be expected that the future prime minister will take a position with Russia that is harsh and uncompromising. As in the situation with "Sakhalin-2."
Vasily Golovnin, special to Kommersant in Tokyo
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 21, 2006
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