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Playing Their Cards Right
// The price of the question
The current referendum in Transdniestria, in its organizers' intentions, is meant to be a deciding step on the road to the independence for the unrecognized republic. However, the referendum is unlikely to bring the republic any closer to that longtime goal.
It doesn't take an especially gifted analyst to predict that Chisinau will not recognize the result of the referendum for anything. The West is also skeptical, to say the least, of the undertaking, and doesn't want to hear anything about Transdniestrian independence. But the most interesting thing is that Russia, which supports Tiraspol, probably won't recognize the independence of Transdniestria. Take the expression of the will of Transdniestria's voters into consideration – sure. Send an ambassador to Tiraspol – no.
Then why did Transdniestrian authorities suddenly decide to hold the referendum? And why did Moscow not even bother to hide its sympathies? The answer is obvious. The referendum in Transdniestria will give Russia a big boost in its larger games in the former Soviet Union.
That game has a principle meaning for Russia, for the Kremlin considers the CIS a zone of its special interest. The game is going, to say the least, with varying success for Russia. Every success in advancing the Russian position is balanced by two failures.
The Transdniestrian referendum may serve Russia well in its game with Chisinau. In Moscow, it seems that they are planning to throw it on the table from time to time to make the Moldovan leadership more agreeable in bilateral relations and within the CIS. And it may be helpful in relations with the West on occasion as well, especially if it starts to doubt the capabilities of Russian peacekeepers to settle conflicts in the CIS.
The referendum has taken place at a convenient time for Moscow. The West is engrossed in the advancement of the independence of Kosovo and is insistently telling Moscow not to interfere. Moscow, at least on the official level, does not support Kosovan independence. Russia President Vladimir Putin has even threatened to use Russia's veto in the UN Security Council if the status of Kosovo isn't what they think it should be in Moscow.
Moscow is not likely to use its veto, but that talk will also strengthen its position in the former Soviet Union. The logic is simple. If Kosovo can be independent, then so can the unrecognized republics in the CIS. So South Ossetia and Abkhazia also may also be put to service.
So the game may go well in these conditions. And after that, they'll come in handy for other things.
Gennady Sysoev
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 18, 2006
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