Viktor Yanukovich Is Not Ready for NATO
// Ukrainian prime minister shows himself in the West
Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich traveled to Brussels yesterday for a one-day visit to negotiate with European Union and NATO leaders. During those negotiations, he called for an end to “Euro-romanticism” in relations between Ukraine and the EU and declared Ukraine unready to accede to NATO. Two years after the Orange Revolution, Ukraine is returning to the balancing act between Moscow and the West that it performed in the times of Leonid Kuchma.
Who Are You, Mr. Yanukovich?
Viktor Yanukovich's visit to Brussels formally looked completely like a working visit by the head of the Ukrainian cabinet, who was to take part in the tenth session of the council on cooperation between Ukraine and the EU and in the latest session of the Ukraine-NATO Commission. Both in Kiev and Brussels they understood that this, Yanukovich's coming out party in the West, which, almost two years ago, had placed its hopes in his opponent at the time Viktor Yushchenko, would determine the pace of Ukraine's further integration into Euro-Atlantic organizations and Europe as a whole. In spite of the fact that, under the Ukrainian Constitution, foreign policy remains the province of President Yushchenko, the expanding authority of the new head of the Ukrainian cabinet resulting from the beginning of the transition to a presidential-parliamentary republic gave Yanukovich an additional measure of confidence in Brussels. “The new Ukrainian government sees its task as to stop playing the role of supplicant, which it was playing in negotiations with the EU until now, and become a strong, self-assured and, therefore, interesting partner for Brussels,” he said before leaving Kiev.
The new role of the Yanukovich, whose return to power in Kiev was unexpected in the West has forced European and NATP officials to look at him as a politician who may soon set Ukraine's foreign policy. At the same time, he is a mystery. Therefore, his visit was structured as many high-placed representatives of the EU and NATO as possible were able to meet him and try to understand his inclinations.
The visit began with a working breakfast with European Commission Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy Benita Ferrero-Waldner, after which Yanukovich met in the course of the day with High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana, EC Vice President Gunter Verheugen, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer and Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt. In addition to the personal meetings, Yanukovich took part in a session of the Ukraine-NATO Commission, had a working lunch with EU leaders and took part in the tenth session of the council on cooperation between Ukraine and the EU and the Ukraine-EU Conference.
Yanukovich was accompanied to Brussels and to the meetings and negotiations by Ukrainian Minister of Economics Vladimir Makukha, Minister of Justice Roman Zvarich, Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Khandogy, Deputy Minister of Defense Leonid Polyakov and Deputy Minister of Fuel and Energy Sergey Titenko.
Europeans Meter Ukraine
It was important for the representatives of Euro-Atlantic organizations to understand to what extent they could do business with Yanukovich, and it was equally important for Yanukovich to shed the reputation of pro-Russian, Moscow-controlled politician who could be used by Russia as a counterweight to the West.
Therefore, Yanukovich was interested in receiving guarantees from the EU on the financing of the Transcaspian Gas Pipeline from Azerbaijan through Georgia, Turkey and Ukraine to Western Europe, bypassing Russia. A week ago, Yushchenko expressed support for the idea during a visit to Baku. Thus, receiving quick approval from Brussels would be a good illustration of Yanukovich's independence from outside powers.
European officials, however, are concerned about isolating Russia, since it is Gazprom, not Naftogaz Ukrainy, that supplies a quarter of the EU's gas imports. Before committing itself to the financing of the Transcaspian Gas Pipeline, the EC wants to find out who told the truth last winter, when Russia accused Ukraine of unauthorized siphoning off of gas, and Ukraine claimed that Gazprom fell significantly short of supply norms to the country because of its technical problems with production and high domestic consumption. The EU has agreed to finance the purchase and installation of meters on gas and oil lines in that connection. EU representatives have said that the European Investment Bank and EBRD will finance the meters with grants and loans.
Ferrero-Waldner stated yesterday that the memorandum on mutual understanding signed with Ukraine “is a very concrete step for raising the transparency, dependability and security of energy supplies and their transit to the EU.” Supplies of Russian gas to Western Europe through Ukraine were cut off for a day in January after Moscow was unable to convince Kiev to raise the price for the gas from $50 to $160 per 1000 cubic meters. Russian blamed Ukraine for the incident.
In addition, Ukraine received guarantees on negotiations at the beginning of next year on expanding ties with the EU, which may include the signing of a free trade agreement, which Ukraine's accession to the WTO depends on. The negotiations will touch on energy as well. Yanukovich said that the project would encourage improved relations between Ukraine and the EU in the field of energy. “With time, we will have the opportunity to diversify gas and oil supplies,” he said, hinting at projects without Russian participation. Thus, it seems that Yanukovich was able at least to draw into question the image of him as a politician controlled by Moscow in the field of energy.
Anything but NATO
The most difficult question facing Yanukovich in Brussels was relations between Ukraine and NATO. As the leader of the Party of the Regions, which made aggressive anti-NATO rhetoric a key part of its parliamentary election campaign this spring, Yanukovich could not avoid expressing his skeptical attitude toward Ukraine's accession to the organization somehow. At the same time, Yanukovich tried to do everything possible in Brussels so that his predictable anti-NATO attitude did not turn the already leery Westerners against him.
“The idea of membership in NATO is supported by few Ukrainian citizens,” he said in Brussels, this making it clear that his aversion to NATO is not personal, but the will of the Ukrainian voters, whom he cannot ignore. To avoid looking anti-NATO, he said that the new Ukrainian government “intends to expand cooperation with NATO,” without accepting any responsibility for the implementation of the so-called “membership action plan” for Ukraine's gradual; integration into NATO. The last Ukrainian government set a goal of acceding to NATO by 2008.
Thus, Yanukovich effectively buried Yushchenko's idea of NATO membership for Ukraine. It is not surprising that the pro-presidential Our Ukraine Party yesterday harshly criticized Yanukovich's performance in Brussels.
Yanukovich tirelessly repeated in Brussels that Ukraine intended to become a bridge between Russia and the West. But his attempt to combine the contradictory interests of Europe and Moscow are a sign of the beginning of the effective return of Ukraine to the policies of former president Leonid Kuchma, who reach a balance between Russia and the West and ended up alienated on both sides.
Sergey Strokan, Natalia Grib, Evgeny Khvostik
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 15, 2006
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