The changes introduced by the CBR in the outlook relate mostly to evaluation of the macroeconomic situation in 2006 but omit the 2007 outlook.
Photo: Sergey Mikheev
| Other Photos |
 |
|
 |
Central Bank of Russia (CBR) Proceeds to Persuade the Market
Central Bank of Russia (CBR) submitted to the State Duma Friday the draft guidelines for the 2007 credit and monetary policy. Of interest is that the bank didn’t change the 2007 outlook. Instead, it adjusted the assessment of this year’s indicators.
Compared with the draft guidelines for the credit and monetary policy considered at the government’s sitting of August 17, the changes introduced by the CBR look no more than cosmetic. At least this conclusion could be made judging by the Friday speech of CBR 1st Deputy Chairman Alexey Ulyukayev dedicated to submitting the draft to the State Duma.
On August 17, the government lashed out at the CBR first of all because of the ruble appreciation in 2007. CBR estimated it at between 0 percent and 10 percent, which corresponds to the nominal rate fluctuation of plus/minus 5 percent. But the government doesn’t like the difference in the economic outlooks shaped by various departments, even if they are independent of the government (formally, CBR is not the government’s subordinate). Ulyukayev said he sees no difference though.
This way or another, the changes introduced by the CBR cover the assessment of 2006 economic situation, omitting 2007. The 2006 growth in money supply, for instance, was adjusted from 32 percent to 36 percent to 33 percent to 37 percent, never minding that July showed the 43.9 percent annual growth and Economic Development Ministry has estimated the August indicator at 45.6 percent.
CBR maintained the 2006 inflation outlook of 8.5 percent, making it the most optimistic of all economic departments. What’s more, CBR expects the 0.1 percent deflation in August, all growth in gasoline prices notwithstanding.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Aug. 28, 2006
|
|
|
