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An Invitation
// Kim Jong Il Called to Beijing
The Chinese government invited North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to visit Beijing in the near future in order to "resolve current problems." Among these is North Korea's refusal to return to the table for six-sided talks and its recent missile launches, all of which undermine China's prestige as a power that is capable of favorably influencing the North Korean leader. To these problems has now been added Beijing's displeasure over rumors that North Korea is preparing to carry out an underground test of its nuclear bomb. Beijing is worried that these rumors will be used by the Japanese government to justify drastic strengthening of Japan's military might.
Until now, there has been only one other instance in which the North Korean leader was expressly invited to visit a foreign country – during a visit in 2000 to the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, Kim Dae Jung, then the president of South Korea, invited Kim Jong Il to visit Seoul in a reciprocal visit at his convenience. Kim Jong Il has not taken up the offer, though he has traveled several times to China and Russia. Every one of his visits has been unexpected: they were announced only after Kim Jong Il had already crossed the North Korean border, a strategy explained by the North Korean leader's security requirements.
But this time this important aspect was relegated to the background by China's concerns about losing face, to which North Korea recently struck a severe blow. By not heeding Chinese entreaties to return to the six-sided talks and to refrain from launching long- and mid-range missiles, the North Koreans gave the world a reason to doubt Beijing's rightful assumption of the role of chief intermediary in talks between North Korea and the rest of the world, and well as its pretensions to the role of the only power capable of influencing North Korea's practically ironclad leadership. And although China's response was muted to North Korea's missile tests on July 4, the opinion of foreign experts is that the tests acutely irritated Beijing.
With its current behavior, Pyongyang is threatening not only China's prestige but also its security. Citing sources in the US State Department, the American media reported on August 18 that North Korea is preparing for an underground test of its nuclear facilities. The announcements cited as evidence American intelligence findings of increased activity at a training ground in northeastern North Korea, where numerous transports were observed unloading cables that are usually used to link blast sites with distant command points.
American president George Bush warned North Korea against possible nuclear tests, though he declined to state whether he had any information supporting the truth of the reports concerning the country's preparations for an atomic blast. According to State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos, "a nuclear test by North Korea would be an extremely provocative action, against which the international community will react with unanimous condemnation." Gallegos promised that Washington would consult on the matter with its "friends and allies."
These "friends and allies," however, are reacting skeptically to reports of North Korea's nuclear test preparations. The Russian Foreign Ministry declared that it does not have at its disposal information supporting reports of test preparations and called the dissemination of such information "counterproductive." Seoul also did not take the news seriously. In a conversation yesterday with a correspondent from Kommersant, a senior South Korean expert said that North Korea may be faking test preparations in another attempt to gain bargaining power with the United States, but that, fearing international isolation and sanctions, it will not decide to actually go through with the tests.
But in China the rumors of North Korea's nuclear test preparations and, more importantly, Pyongyang's refusal to deny the accusations are being taken very seriously indeed. As Chinese and South Korean experts told Kommersant's correspondent, Beijing and Seoul are certain that Japan will use the threat posed by North Korean missile and nuclear tests as justification for strengthening its military alliance with the United States, particularly in terms of the creation of a ballistic missile defense system and a beefing-up of its defenses. Beijing believes that Japan is seeking chiefly to rein in the growth of Chinese influence in the region. The Chinese, as well as the South Koreans, fear that the already ongoing transformation of Japan's self-defensive strength into full-fledged military might will pick up speed this autumn after Prime Minster Junichiro Koizumi, who shocked the Asian world with his visits to the Yasikuni war memorial, retires on September 20 and is replaced by others reputed to be more nationalistic than the outgoing prime minister. As such, Beijing is counting on receiving Kim Jong Il as a guest before the end of August, in order to show the world that China is still capable of influencing North Korea and containing any threats, thus giving Japan no grounds to speed up its rearmament.
Andrei Ivanov
All the Article in Russian as of Aug. 25, 2006
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