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Cause of Airplane Crash Yet to Be Determined
The search operation has ended for the Pulkovo Tu-154 that crashed outside Donetsk. The bodies of parts of the bodies of 171 people (not 169 as previously stated) have been found, as have both black boxes. The plane was flying from Anapa to St. Petersburg and had been warned three times that there was a storm front along its path. Rules forbade the pilot to fly into a storm front. In this case, the captain decided to fly over the front instead of around it and the plane began to climb. At an altitude of 11,500 m., practically the maximum altitude for that type of plane, the crew issued three distress signals.
It has been suggested that the plane was hit by lightning at that point and that the lightning disturbed the functioning of the planes electronic equipment. Although the plane had defenses against lightning, a strong enough bolt of lightning could knock out several systems on board. Geophysicists suggest that the greatest threat to the plane at that altitude was not lightning but whirlwinds that could have unbalanced the plane. The convective field where whirlwinds can exist might be larger than the cloud mass by several kilometers and undetectable by the human eye or airplane locator.
Scientists say that downdrafts capable of “throwing” the plane several kilometers downward threatened the plane at that altitude as well. That could have caused an overload that the crew was unable to cope with. The final SOS was received from the plane when it was at an altitude of 3000 m., at which point, investigators say, it was in a spin that no passenger liner could come out of.
Experts also say that errors on the part of the crew could have resulted in the plane falling into a spin. If the plane mounted at a certain angle, the engines could have lost speed, creating a situation that would be difficult to correct. It is also possible that the plane was hit by lightning and turbulence and faced engine difficulties all at the same time. The question arises why the experience crew did not fly around the storm front or return to Anapa. One reason for that may be that they would have faced a fine for wasting fuel, although Pulkovo denies that.
Although the Russian Interior Ministry and the FSB are investigating the possibility of a terrorist act on the plane, it is unlikely that an explosion took place on it. An explosion would have scattered wreckage over a wide area. The compactness of the wreckage suggests that the plane hit the ground whole. The possibility remains that flammable liquid were involved. Several eyewitnesses said that the plane was burning as it hit the ground. Descriptions of the bodies of passengers as “like wax” also suggest that they suffocated before the plane hit the ground. No autopsies of the passengers have been conducted yet.
The plane's black boxes, which were not badly damaged, will be taken to Moscow for decipherment. They should determine the actual cause of the crash.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Aug. 24, 2006
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