Tehran Ready for a Fight over the Atom
// The Iranian Nuclear Crisis
Iranian authorities answered the world community's suggestions on the Iranian nuclear problem yesterday. Iran has chosen to ignore the UN Security Council resolution demanding that it cease its enrichment of uranium by the end of August. Tehran is counting on Moscow and Beijing to prevent sanctions against it. Furthermore, the successes of the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, which it supports, open up new possibilities for maneuvering for it. Iran for a victory is hoping as it goes into conflict with the world community and eventually to become a world power and the leader of the Islamic world.
Faith in Allah, Not in the “Six”
Tehran's official response to the package of proposals from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany was received yesterday at 4:30 p.m. Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran and chief negotiator on nuclear issues, handed the ambassadors of the Six a written response to the proposals to regulate the Iranian nuclear crisis. Along with the ambassadors from Russia, Great Britain, Germany, France and China, the Swiss ambassador, who represents the interests of the United States in Tehran, was invited. The U.S. does not have diplomatic relations with Iran. The text of the response has not been made public. Iranian media quoted Larijani as saying that Iran is ready to “begin serious negotiations on August 23.” There is no evidence that Iran has agreed to meet the key demand of the world community, that it stop enriching uranium.
The Iranian made its decision on its response to the Six long before yesterday. Spiritual leader was Ali Khamenei was the latest Iranian to say that giving up uranium enrichment was impossible. “The Islamic Republic of Iran with Allah's help will continue its research in the nuclear sphere,” he said, going on to criticize the U.S. and other countries for pressuring Iran and promising not to turn from the path that will bring Iran “sweet fruit.”
Khamenei's announcement was the final reaction from Tehran to the Six's proposals. Another indication of Tehran's intentions was Iran's refusal to allow UN inspectors into underground nuclear facility at Natanz, where gas centrifuges for uranium enrichment have been installed. Diplomats and official UN representatives announced the Iranian decision on Monday.
A Russo-Chinese Monkey Wrench in the American Works
Tehran's refusal to accept the world community's proposals means that diplomatic and economic sanctions should be imposed against it as an extreme measure, as established by the above-mentioned UN Security Council resolution of July 31. U.S. President George W. Bush called for the council the resolve the issue faster on Monday. “I will continue to remind our friends and allies about the danger of Iran armed with nuclear weapons,” Bush promised, adding that Washington intends to increase its pressure on the other Security Council members to take action against Tehran as a “united front.” Now the Security Council has to pass one more resolution. The next council session will be on August 31. Recent statements by official representatives of the five permanent member states on the council show that a united front will remain an unrealized dream. The sanctions will once again be impeded by Russia and China.
The Washington Post explained the American approach to sanctions against Iran yesterday. The newspaper said that, since it cannot overthrow the Iran regime in a wide-scale military operation, the U.S. will have to continue making maximum efforts to isolate the regime and undermine it from within, adding broad diplomatic and economic sanctions to the formula. The newspaper says that sanctions against Tehran should create the same upheaval in Iran as led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Observers say that it is in Washington's interests to impose the strictest possible sanctions that will not only impose travel limitations on Iranian leaders but also impose numerous other limitations on trade and investment in the country.
Moscow and Beijing take another position. Chinese Foreign Ministry special envoy in the Middle East Sun Bigan stated yesterday that the Chinese still consider harsh measures against Iran – force or sanctions – counterproductive. Russian representatives, while formally acknowledging the possibility of imposing sanctions, pepper their statements with a multitude of provisos about what kind of sanctions should not be imposed. Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, says that Russia not only excludes the possibility of Russia approving military action by the Security Council, but it also “must oppose those sanctions that will directly led to a deterioration in conditions for Iranian citizens.” Thus Moscow holds that sanctions against Iran should not undermine the regime.
Just before Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Bush met at the G8 summit in St. Petersburg, observers were suggesting that Moscow could give Iran up to Washington in exchange for American agreement on Russia's accession to the WTO. But unfolding events showed that so such deal took place. Now the Russians are annoyed by Washington's unwillingness to remove the barriers to Russia's accession to the WTO and has no intention of showing understanding for the American position. Iran's refusal of the Six's proposals symbolically coincided with the visit of a high-ranking delegation of Iranian nuclear representatives. Iranians held working meetings with the Russian company Atomstroiexport and the Iranian delegation will visit the Kalininskaya atomic energy plant, the third block of which, completed in 2004, is comparable to the one Russia is building in Iran.
Thus both Moscow and Beijing are unwilling to approve any sanctions that could create real pressure on Iran. In the U.S., they understand that they are unlikely to get their way in the UN Security Council and Washington is considering the possibility of independent action. Daniel Pipes, a leading U.S. expert on Iran and the Middle East, said that “the UN Security Council will be unable to find a way out of the current situation because Iran has never reacted to UN decisions.” Confirmation of U.S. intentions to act forcibly against Iran can be seen in recent talks between Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. According to a Kommersant source close to the White House, Olmert, on his visit to Washington just before the Lebanon war, “reported all information available to him on the military capabilities of Iran, but the U.S. administration considered the information incomplete at the time.”
On to New Victories with Hezbollah
Apparently, Tehran is not the least concerned about the UN resolution. By showing its apathy toward sanctions, the Iranian regime has strengthened its position not only in the eyes of its own people, which have been engulfed in a wave of patriotism, but have earned big points in the part of the Islamic world that is anti-American and anti-Israeli.
The lack of unity in the world community is not the only factor in Iran's favor in the face of threats of international sanctions. Tehran also has the threat of leaving the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in its arsenal, as well as economic measures such as shutting off the flow of its oil to the West, which would destabilize the world oil market.
Hezbollah may also play a positive role in Tehran's standoff with its opponents. After an entire month of military operations in Lebanon, the Israeli army was unable to achieve victory over the radical Shiite organization, which is supported by Iran and Syria. Meanwhile Hezbollah's popularity has grown immensely not only in bomb-shocked Lebanon, but far beyond it as well. Hezbollah was presented to millions in the Middle East as the main power in the region, which held off American-backed “Zionist aggression.” Iran's tradition support for Hezbollah takes on new meaning in this light. Standing behind Hezbollah, Iran has a new chance to claim leadership in the Islamic world. If forcible action is taken against it, Tehran could take advantage of the political weight and military potential of Hezbollah in the region to strike back against its enemies.
The Arabic-language newspaper Al-Shark al-Awsat, citing a “high-placed commander of a corps of guardians of the Islamic revolution,” reports that Iran has delivered a large quantity of weapons and ammunition, including various types of rocket, to Syria in recent weeks. That newspaper says that the weapons are now being rapidly transferred to Hezbollah divisions in various parts of Lebanon. The operation is being coordinated by an office of the guardians of the Iranian Islamic revolution that recently opened in Damascus. According to media reports, Iran has provided about $150 million in support to Hezbollah.
Iran continued yesterday to show its readiness for war against the West. In the provinces of Kermanshah and Hamadam, armored divisions began maneuvers as part of general military exercises that began last Saturday. The Iranian news agency IRNA reports that the maneuvers began in the southeast of the country are have expanded to a national scale. Twelve infantry divisions are involved, as well as the Iranian Air Force and Navy. Observers note that the exercises are unprecedented in the country. Tehran is showing its preparedness to meet its enemies on all fronts. Moreover, Tehran has come to the conclusion that it will come out of the unfolding confrontation with the world community stronger and in a better position in the world, on its way to joining the club of great powers as undisputed leader of the Islamic world.
Sergey Strokan; Dmitry Sidorov, Washington
All the Article in Russian as of Aug. 23, 2006
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