The Importance of Being Fast
Timing is becoming increasingly important as the Israeli-Lebanese conflict is aggravated and the parties are waging propaganda wars. The outcome of the conflict will be determined by the actual length of the hostilities, which have already reached central Beirut, rather than by the number of Israel’s bombs of Hezbollah’s rockets.
The Israelis are in a hurry, aware of the fact that time is now precious as ever. They have very little time left to win a clear-cut victory, the one that the world community would have no doubts about. They may have a week or two. Opinions voiced by U.S. President George W. Bush show that the States justify actions of Israel which hopes to crack down on terrorists. Just look how harsh George Bush sounds when he talks about Hezbollah and the supporting Syria and Iran. His speeches can be turned into a couple of words: “squash ‘em”.
So, the only world leader who could have influenced Israel and asked it for restraint is on their side. He’s still on its side. The anti-terrorist operation in Lebanon, however, entails considerable costs. Civilians are dying there every day, and the toll is skyrocketing. Apparently, the world’s pressure on Israel to end hostilities and cease fire will be growing. In this case, George Bush, who seemingly takes no part in the battle, will be unable to keep on justifying Israel’s action. He won’t be able to go on overlooking the casualties in Lebanon, where the toll is times more than in Israel. Acting in this way, the U.S. president, already unpopular in the Middle East, will have to give up his much-cherished dream of the Big Middle East. Aversion to America and American ways will expand beyond proportions in the regions. Yet, Bush can’t afford it despite his deep sympathy to Israel and hatred to terrorists of Hezbollah.
Consequently, if Israel fails to meet the aims over the shortest possible time, its actions in Lebanon will get a different evaluation. As time will be passing after Hezbollah struck Israel on the back, provoking the conflict, Israel’s actions in Lebanon will be increasingly viewed as an aggressive war to build up the influence under the cover of fight on terrorism, but not as an operation to ensure security.
Israel can’t stop halfway, having started destroying Hezbollah’s infrastructure. It needs to finish the task for the sake of its own security. However, Israel does not simply need a victory. It needs a quick victory with the minimum of bloodshed. If Israel gets stuck in the Lebanese dirt, it won’t be a victory. It will be a defeat.
Sergey Strokan, columnist
All the Article in Russian as of July 20, 2006
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