Perfidious Downfall
// North Korea shot missiles into Russia’s water area
North Korea practiced missile firing on Tuesday night. It launched one strategic and five tactical missiles. All of them flew towards Russia and fell into north-western part of the Sea of Japan, into 200-mile economic zone of Russia. Pyongyang did not notify Moscow about the launch, and Russia’s missile warning system apparently did not react, despite the assurances of Russian military officials. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the launch a provocation on Wednesday morning. However, it changed its attitude to the launch closer to yesterday’s evening. During the emergency session of the UN Security Council, Russia and China voted against imposing sanctions on North Korea, while the U.S. and Japan insisted on these measures.
North Korea carried out missile-firing exercise on Tuesday night without warning. The first missile was launched at 10:30 p.m. Moscow time. It was a Scud-C rocket with 300 kilometers firing range. By the way, it was launched 8 minutes before the space shuttle STS-121 in the United States. Koreans waited for half an hour, and fired Nodon medium-range missile (flight range 1,500 kilometers). At midnight, Taepodong-2 strategic missile with flight range of 6,000 kilometers was launched. Then North Koreans had a 2-hour break, and then fired 3 more rockets: 2 Scud-C missiles and 1 Nodon. The firing exercise ended at 3:20 a.m. on Wednesday. However, Joint Chiefs of Staff of Armed Forces of South Korea has information that North Korea launched the seventh rocket, which fell into the ocean to the south of Russia’s Primorsky region, 6 minutes after its launch on Wednesday’s afternoon. Japan’s defense department said all missiles fell in Russia’s 200-mile economic zone (near the cities of Nakhodka and Vladivostok).
Nocturnal missile-firing exercise was a bolt from the blue for Moscow. According to Kommersant, Russian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of Armed Forces gathered first information on the launches from the Internet. Russian military officials could neither locate the starts, nor specify the weapon impact point.
According to Kommersant, the space segment of Russia’s missile warning system can control only US territory. Russia does not have a geostationary satellite for round-the-clock monitoring of rocket situation in Asia-Pacific Region. Kosmos-2397 satellite, launched in April 2003, broke down several days after its launch. Dnepr radiolocation station from the ground segment of the missile warning system, situated in Irkutsk region, could not trace the launches because North Korean missiles did not go up high enough for Dnepr to notice them. Only radio-technical facilities of 23rd air defense corps of Vladivostok were able to watch North Korean missiles fly before they fell into the ocean.
Comments of Russian military officials sounded perplexed. Press Service of Pacific Fleet headquarters in Vladivostok redirected Kommersant to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “We will not take away the Ministry’s work. It is their prerogative to comment on such situations.”
Commandant of Irkutsk garrison Sergey Lysevsky told Kommersant that he had not heard about North Korean missiles at all. “I don’t know where and whatever fell, and whether it fell well, but our armed forces are the best in the world,” said Lysevsky. To the question whether Dnepr radio detection and ranging equipment located the missiles, Lysevsky answered with a counter-question: Perhaps you are from the secret service? How come you know where the tracking stations are situated? I won’t tell you anything.”
Head of Russian General Staff Yuri Baluevsky, who was in Chita for strategic exercise “Baikal-2006”, spoke on Korean incident only 9 hours after the launches. He said that “North Korea launched 9 missiles”, and could not specify what missiles they were. “According to some data , they were rockets of various classes, according to other information, all of them were intercontinental,” said Baluevsky. He said the class of the launched missiles should be discussed only when “technical control facilities of Russian armed forces provide the data.”
First news that North Korea prepares test launch of long-range rocket appeared in US newspapers as early as June 13. Washington warned Pyongyang then not to make any provocations. A couple of days later, the U.S. announced that North Korean rocket was already standing on the launching site and was filled with fuel. On June 18, North Korean mass media called the country’s people to wait for an important message. However, neither that day, nor the next one, brought any news. Pyongyang’s representative in UN Han Son Nel hinted on June 21 at why North Korea began this game. Nel said that if the U.S. is so very concerned about the matter, Pyongyang is ready to join Washington in two-sided talks. Since it was obvious that North Korea will try to exchange its promise not to launch missiles for the lift of economic sanctions, Americans did not agree to hold such meeting. Instead, US destroyers appeared near the Korean peninsula, equipped with Ballistic Missile Defense System which was right away successfully tested. North Korea called this action of the U.S. “escalation of aggressive steps of the U.S. and preparation for a new war”. Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned on July 4 that Pyongyang will reply by nuclear war, should the U.S. attempt to attack nuclear and other military buildings of North Korea. The US Department of State urged Pyongyang to refrain from “unwise steps”.
North Korean leaders ignored US warning. While the U.S. was celebrating the Independence Day, missiles were fired from cape Musudan. When President Bush discovered what kind of fireworks Kim Jong-il had for him, he held an urgent meeting with Defense Secretary Donald Ramsfield and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. According to White House sources, George Bush called North Korea’s test firing of missiles “a challenge for the world community”.
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also reacted sharply at first. The Ministry expressed “serious concern about the launch of missiles,” urging Pyongyang to “moderation and following the agreements in rocket sphere”. The Ministry also stressed that launch without warning breached the moratorium on missile firings, and presented a threat for international navigation in the water area of Pacific Ocean. The Ministry invited North Korean Ambassador in Moscow Pak Y Chun to tell him the stand of Russia. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the phone yesterday. According to the Ministry, Lavrov expressed perplexity of Russia once again.
China expressed its “deep concern about North Korea’s missile-firing exercise” as well. Yet, it is Japan who feels the deepest concern about North Korea’s actions. Tokyo suggested to carry this issue out to yesterday’s emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Japan suggested ratifying a resolution to impose international sanctions on North Korea. The U.S., Great Britain, and France supported Japan’s initiative, while China and Russia (actually the victim of Pyongyang’s missiles) voted against the resolution. Russian Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin said that Russia is against imposing sanctions on North Korea, and supports the idea to ratify the resolution on behalf of UN Security Council Chairman. Such resolutions are always regarded as a milder measure than a large-scale resolution.
The firing of North Korean missiles can affect the situation in the neighboring crisis region. Talks between EU high representative on foreign policy and security Xavier Solana and Iran’s Security Council Secretary Ali Laridjani were to be held in Brussels yesterday. Yet, having learned of North Korean rocket crisis, Iranian leader cancelled his visit, saying the trip to Europe is unsafe for delegation members. Apparently, Iran decided to watch how the West will punish Pyongyang for its demarche. If the reaction is weak, Tehran will have grounds for accusing the U.S. of double standards and biased attitude to Iran.
On the other hand, Korean factor can later be used by western diplomats in talks to Moscow. Warning Russia against supporting odious regimes, the U.S. and EU will be able to say that rockets of another unpredictable partner of Russia—Iran who develops its own nuclear program—may accidentally land on Russia’s territory as well.
by Ivan Safronov, Andrey Ivanov, Vladimir Solovyev, Mikhail Zygar; Alexandra Terentyeva, Irkutsk; Andrey Chernyshev, Vladivostok
All the Article in Russian as of July 06, 2006
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