Hamas Point-Blank
// Russia will have to prove that contacts with extremists can bring results
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni arrived to Moscow yesterday evening. Recent event of taking Israeli soldier hostage brought serious changes into the visit’s agenda. Now Livni’s main objective is to persuade Russia to influence Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, who visited Moscow in March, and who, as Israel believes, personally ordered to take a hostage. Real help to release him gives Russia a chance to overcome cooldown in Russia-Israel relations. However, Tzipi Livni denied, with diplomatic tact, the very fact of such cooldown during her talk to Kommersant correspondent.
Israeli Inspector
Israel could not state for sure whether Tzipi Livni was coming to Moscow until the last minute. The kidnapping of lance-corporal Gilad Shalit confused all plans of Israeli government. Finally, Tel Aviv decided that it is now that Israeli Foreign Minister’s visit to Russia is especially important. The matter is, Moscow has direct access to the man who, according to Israeli intelligence data, personally gave orders to attack Israel’s blockpost, and who commands the kidnappers of Gilad Shalit. It is Hamas leader Khaled Mashal.
It was his visit to Moscow in March 2006 heading the representative delegation of Palestine’s radical movement Hamas that led to noticeable cooldown in Russia-Israel relations. Russian President Vladimir Putin personally invited the winners of parliamentary elections in Palestine. Israel was absolutely against the visit. Tel Aviv said that by its actions, Moscow undermined the united position of Middle East Quartet (Russia, the U.S., European Union, and United Nations): until Hamas publicly gives up terror, and acknowledges Palestine-Israel agreements signed before, and Israel’s right to exist, the government formed by Hamas should remain in isolation.
Moscow at first supported this position, but then changed its mind, saying that isolation of Hamas government will not bring positive results. Russia tried to persuade the Quartet and Israel of the necessity of dialogue with Palestinian radicals. Moscow claimed that at least someone from the Quartet should have permanent contacts with Hamas top officials. After all, assured Moscow, it will do good even to Israel. Consequently, Khaled Mashal was invited to Moscow in early March, where he was received by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Thus, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni will ask Moscow today to prove that its exclusive contacts with Hamas, extremist leader Khaled Mashal, and Syria who gave refuge to him, are indeed useful and can help in establishing peace in Middle East. So, Russia needs to persuade its Hamas partners to release lance-corporal Gilad Shalit, after which Israel promised to stop Summer Rain operation, aimed at saving the soldier. “I expect that each country which wants to put an end to terror, prevent the escalation of violence, and resume peace process in Middle East, should put pressure on Syria. I do not mean negotiations, since Israel will not engage in any talks concerning this subject [releasing the soldier.—Kommersant],--said Livni before coming to Moscow.
So, Russia received a chance to distinguish itself. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs believes the present level of relations with Hamas allows Russia to address the leaders of Hamas movement with a strong request for assistance in releasing Israeli hostage. According to Kommersant’s information, Russia has already talked to Khaled Mashal on the issue, and Mashal said that although he has no connection to the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit, he can help release him. However, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs believes Israel should make some concessions to Palestine, and fulfil at least some of Palestine’s demands, to help release the soldier. Kidnappers demand that Israel stop their military operation in Gaza sector, and release from prisons Palestinian women and children under 18. In this case, Moscow is ready to cooperate.
Go Mediators!
Yet, it is not only Russia who wants to assist the process. Israeli authorities have already asked the U.S. for cooperation. President Bush personally demanded to immediately release Gilad Shalit, which will right away lead to solving the crisis. UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Alvaro de Soto should have arrived to Gaza yesterday. He scheduled meetings with Palestine’s top officials, including Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas.
Yet, the most active mediator is Egypt. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak joined the process. Hamas received the list of solutions for the crisis, offered by Egypt, on Friday. Israeli newspaper Haaretz, referring to high-placed Palestinian sources, said Egypt suggested that Hamas militants should immediately release the captive soldier, and Israel should release Palestinian prisoners from its jails in exchange. “Egyptian offer does not specify either the number of prisoners to be released, or the deadline for their release,” noted the newspaper’s sources. Palestine was given 48 hours to consider the offer. Yet, this deadline expired yesterday, and there was no reply. “Our efforts to save Israeli soldier reached a stalemate,” one of Egyptian mediators told France Press news agency. “We can do nothing to release him [Gilad Shalit.—Kommersant], because too many conditions hinder our efforts.”
Meanwhile, Israel’s patience is running out. On Saturday night, Israeli helicopters bombarded Gaza headquarters of Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Hania of Hamas. Around 2 a.m. local time, two missiles hit the southern wing of the building, in which there was no one at that moment. Three guards received light injuries. “Israeli army will continue to use all means it has against Palestinian terrorist network in Gaza sector, to secure a non-conditional release of lance-corporal Gilad Shalit,” said official spokesman for Israeli armed forces. Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert yesterday ordered to the army and special services to “boost their activities”.
Nevertheless, Palestine is keeping its positions. “Israeli government should understand that once it releases our prisoners, the crisis will be successfully solved. Otherwise, the situation will aggravate for Israel and for us. It might eventually lead to large escalation of violence, and many people will die,” said official spokesman for Hamas government Gazi Hamad.
It is in this difficult moment of settling the crisis that Moscow might join the talks. If Kremlin succeeds, it will not only emerge as an important player on Middle-East arena, but will significantly improve its recently spoiled relations with Israel.
To be friends or not to be friends
The history of Russia-Israel relations over last 18 months is, first of all, the crisis history. The first aggravation was caused by Russia’s decision to sell weapons to Syria in early 2005. The last one—by Israel’s shock over Moscow’s invitation of Hamas leaders. Ehud Olmert, who occupies his post for more than three months already, has visited three world capitals—Washington, London, and Paris. Yet, he has not included Moscow into his schedule so far. It is only Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni who will visit Moscow. Observers believe this fact is the evidence of the cooldown in Russia-Israel relations. However, Livni herself denies it. “Prime Minister’s visit is also scheduled,” Livni told Kommersant.
According to Israeli sources, Israel cannot decide how to treat Russia. After the crisis caused by Russia’s selling weapons to Syria, former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon commissioned the then Head of National Security Council Giyora Island to prepare a report on possible ways of developing Russia-Israel relations. Sharon did not live long enough to see the report. The report was shown to interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, several days after Hamas leaders had been invited to Moscow. Members of National Security Council underlined the strategic importance of cooperation with Russia, and slightly hinted that Israeli government simply misunderstands Russian colleagues, choosing emotional reactions to what Moscow does, instead of clear analysis of the situation.
However, not everyone was ready to agree with such conclusions. Differences between National Security Council and Israeli security structures with a tougher stance have leaked into the press. Several months ago, the newspaper Haaretz published a report, according to which Israeli officials argue whether to support Russian initiative concerning Iran nuclear crisis, and Russia’s offer to create Russia-Iran joint enterprises for uranium enrichment, or whether any compromise on Iran should not be trusted. Israel, in fact, is wavering between the promising economic and important political cooperation with Russia, on the one hand, and the fact that Moscow openly supports main enemies of Israel—Iran and Syria, and pushes for reconciliatory policy to Palestinian islamists, on the other hand.
Now Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs hopes that Tzipi Livni’s visit will give a positive stimulus for Russia-Israel relations which have only been aggravating since Hamas visit to Moscow.
Kremlin is also eager to improve the relations. According to Kommersant’s sources in Israel, Livni might be received by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Israeli foreign ministers were not always granted such attention. For instance, previous Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom could not be received by Putin, despite all his attempts, when he visited Moscow in June 2003.
Grigory Asmolov, Jerusalem; Alexander Reutov
All the Article in Russian as of July 03, 2006
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