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Eyes, launch!
// North Korea put old Soviet rocket on a new rocket stage
North Korea held the whole world on tenterhooks yesterday. Launch of newest ballistic rocket Tepkhodon-2 was expected any minute. It is believed this rocket can reach the United States. Although it was not launched yesterday, experts think it will be launched soon. Washington and its allies have already threatened Pyongyang with sanctions, though they have excluded possibility of force measures for now. ITAR-TASS correspondent in Tokyo Vasily Golovnin gives the details, specially for Kommersant.
It has been too cloudy so far
Information that fuel had already been loaded into the rocket at Musudan base in north-east of North Korea appeared as early as Friday. American and Japanese spy satellites photographed several tens of fuel tanks around the rocket. If the fuel is really loaded, the rocket must be launched no later than Tuesday, informed sorces of national intelligence service in Seoul. Same sources later confirmed that the rocket will not be launched on Sunday due to bad weather conditions. The sky over Musudan base is too cloudy.
Meanwhile, leading South Korean TV company KBS announced it possesses the photographs of the two-stage rocket 35 meters long and 2.2 meters in diameter in its widest parts. It is painted in white color, and is placed on a square launching site. It is believed to be Tepkhodon-2 rocket, which is a result of using old Soviet developments, just like other North Korean technological achievements. Its second stage is a modernised version of a 1950s rocket that were massively produced in USSR and were called Skad in the West. Nowadays, North Korea uses their base to produce intermediate range missiles Nodon, which can strike South Korea and largest part of Japan. Experts estimate that North Korea has no less than 200 of them.
In order to produce Tepkhodon-2, the rocket was reinforced by a second stage, which is believed to have raised the rocket’s flight range up to 3,500-6,000 kilometers, depending on the weight of warhead. Thus, it can reach some regions of Alaska, though experts think it is not very accurate. in fact, a third stage can be attached to Tepkhodon, extending its range up to 15,000 kilometers. Yet, the rocket does not seem ready to test this kind of modification.
The rocket’s flight path will sure be above Japan after its launch, and then it will go in the direction of the Pacific ocean open waters. Experts predict North Korea will try to make Tepkhodon’s second stage fall as far as possible—somewhere between Alaska and Hawaii. No one knows what is inside the rocket’s head, but Japan’s Defense Ministry believes that North Korea announce after the rocket takes off that it has launched a satellite and give the data for its orbit. Sources in Beijing say the major part of North Korean rocket scientists is now busy making the estimations, trying to make them most probable.
A song about dear leader
North Korea already announced the launch of its first satellite in August 1998, when it tested a rocket of previous modification—Tepkhodon-1, range over 1,500 kilometers. That satellite allegedly flew above the Earth, transmitting a song about dear leader Kim Jong-il. Space tracking stations all over the world did not manage to find that satellite on the orbit. Yet, North Korea is quite likely to launch a real satellite now, so as to demonstrate its rocket achievements. This arrangement will allow to make Tepkhodon’s launch look peaceful, at least officially, and prevent Washington’s and Tokyo’s attempts to impose international sanctions on North Korea.
Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Taro Aso consulted US Ambassador Thomas Shiffer on Saturday. They agreed upon joint actions should North Korea launch the rocket. Japanese minister spoke on a Tokyo TV channel on Sunday, saying that Japan will immediately demand an emergency session of UN Security Council in this case. It should discuss sanctions against North Korea, he said. Yet, sources at Japanese Foreign Affairs Ministry admit that it will be nearly impossible to achieve: China, being North Korea’s ally, will block any attempts like that.
Thus, Tokyo believes it more realistic if the Security council adopts a declaration on behalf of its chairman, which will express general denunciation of North Korea. In 1998, for instance, after the test of Tepkhodon-1, a document was adopted which rebuked North Korea for not announcing the launch beforehand, and thus creating a threat to fishing and navigation. It should also be taken into account that international law does not prohibit testing rockets and launching satellites.
However, Foreign Affairs Minister Aso reminded Sunday that Japan has already passed a law allowing to impose unilateral sanctions on North Korea. These measures include complete ban on North Korean vessels entering Japan’s harbors, and, what is more important, complete ban on money transfers from Koreans living in Japan to their ethnic homeland. North Korea receives nearly half of hard currency it has through this channel.
There is information that Seoul is also ready to impose sanctions. Last week it notified North Korea that the launch of the rocket will cause the closure of many inter-Korean cooperation projects. The U.S. has already taken nearly all possible measures of economic pressure on North Korea beforehand.
Resentment as the engine for military technical progress
Pentagon sources have made it clear, however, that American armed forces do not intend to shoot down Tepkhodon-2, unless its flight path becomes too dangerous. Japanese are more nervous, they are afraid the rocket will fall on their territory due to some mistake during the flight. Foreign Affairs Minister Aso has even said at first that the fall of the rocket “will be taken as armed attack.” The Tokyo suddenly recollected to explain it will not begin military actions against North Korea even in this case. “It is a different matter if two or three rockets more fall on Japan’s territory,” he added. Anyway, Tokyo has now sent two warships into the Japanese sea. The warships have Idjis systems of tracking and aiming, which can locate practically any targets in space and atmosphere. Two Japanese and one US satellites constantly watch Musudan base.
North Korea has undoubtedly achieved its purpose—it is now in the limelight of the world’s attention. “I think that Mr. Kim Jong-il is following the advice of Soviet leader Kruschev--he is persuading the world that he can show Americans the mother of Kuzma,” said an expert close to Japanese Foreign Ministry in good Russian. Tokyo thinks that North Korea is angered by Americans’ painfully hitting Korea’s financial transactions abroad by blocking its accounts in Delta Asia bank in Macao, where top North Korean officials kept their money, according to some information. Bitter resentment was also caused by Washington’s arrogantly ignoring North Korea’s call to settle peacefully all controversial issues, including the crisis with its nuclear program. Beginning from late March, Seoul, first unofficially, then openly, asked to send Christopher Hill, Secretary of State’s Assistant for Eastern Asia and the Pacific, to North Korea. This offer was rejected, and active preparations for Tepkhodon-2 launch began right after that.
Vasily Golovnin
All the Article in Russian as of June 19, 2006
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