The Unconstitutional Majority
// Most Russians are in favor of a third term for Vladimir Putin
The portion of Russians who are in favor of a third term for Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased from 41 to 59 percent in the last nine months, according to poll conducted by the Levada Center in 46 subjects of the federation between May 19 and 22. The center also determined that First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has the best chances of succeeding Putin, who has surpassed not only opposition figures such as Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Gennady Zyuganov, but Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov as well.
Putin has stated steadfastly that he will not change the Constitution for the sake of remaining in office for a third term. The Levada Center poll shows that support for such a move is growing, however. In August 2005, 41 percent of respondents were in favor of changing the Constitution for that purpose and 42 percent were opposed to the idea. Today 59 percent favor the change, and only 29 percent are opposed. Only 32 percent of Russians expect Putin to keep his word and not take measures to retain power.
If Putin does leave office, 43 percent of Russians are willing to vote for the candidate he proposes. Fourteen percent will vote against whomever Putin proposes and 30 percent will vote “according to the conditions,” that is, possibly for the successor to Putin chosen by the Kremlin.
Another significant finding of the poll is the growth of trust in Dmitry Medvedev, who is considered a potential successor to the president. In a list of possible candidates that did not include Putin, Medvedev took first place with 10.3 percent, followed by LDPR leader Zhirinovsky (7.3%), Ivanov (7.2%) and Communist leader Zyuganov (6.8%). The most popular answer, with 18 percent, was “against all.”
Yury Levada explained to Kommersant that his participation in the national projects, which are continually covered on national television, has boosted Medvedev's popularity. He is especially popular with Russians who may be affected by the national project on demography. Levada warned, however, that the survey was taken among those who had already decided whom they would vote for in 2008, and those decisions may change drastically. He attributed the increasing support for a third term for Putin to the fact that Russians “simply don't see any worthy alternative candidates.”
“The most important thing for the Kremlin,” commented Andrey Ryabov, member of the scientific council of the Moscow Carnegie Center, “is not to do anything until 2008. Then Operation Successor will be a success. All they have to do is to give people a little money periodically through the national projects.” He added that price growth should be kept under control as well. He noted that the opposition had no way to resist the authorities, since it has “no institutions, no procedures, no recognizable figures who could inspire trust in people” left. All that it can do is try to maintain its current position until the authorities make a mistake, he opined.
Dmitry Kamyshev, Viktor Khamraev
All the Article in Russian as of June 08, 2006
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