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Next They'll Pull the Girls' Hair
// The price of the question
Relations between countries are established with the same principles as between little boys in the playground or prisoners in a cellblock. Of course, diplomatic protocol and the official style of documents, with their “expressions of concern” and “respect for the position of the other side,” try to hide that fact. But it is not hard for the serious and level-headed observer to see that it is often not the strongest who wins in the international arena but the most decisive, who acts without regard for consequences, in other words the renegade. The Iranian nuclear crisis proves this point.
The last American position is very decent. They have expressed their willingness to withdraw their military threat and allow Russia and China to use other forms of pressure on Iran. Thus the United States has shown that it understands the danger of a serious war and has even compromised its prestige for the sake of maintaining peace. Now, if Iran continues its nuclear program and Russia and China do nothing about it, it will be clear to all who the enemy of humanity is and who condones it.
In reality, it's a good bluff with a bad hand. What the Americans are passing off as noblesse is actually powerlessness. Probably even U.S. President George W. Bush, despite his disinclination to intricate reasoning, has realized that there is no military or political victory over Iran in his cards. Iran would turn out like Iraq, only much, much worse. Therefore, it is necessary to backpaddle with flare. Thus, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has begun to speak of taking part in negotiations with Iran and not including a clause on the use of military force in the UN Security Council resolution on Iran and America's hopes for Russian and Chinese collaboration in its peace efforts.
The only problem is that none of that is likely to happen. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will understand the situation, and not take American weakness for goodwill, but command that Iranian scientists work on the “peaceful atomic” even harder. Russia's independent policy is helpless because of the country's interest in Bushehr and similar mercantile interests and will shortsightedly help its neighbor make an atomic bomb. China will follow suit. It has made serious investments in Iran and has a powerful partner in it, an agreeable and promising one that even the U.S. is afraid of.
It's just like a street fight. The big guy thinks he can push the little guy around. But then he sees a knife in his hand and says, “well, I won't beat you up this time. I feel too sorry for you.” And then he can be sure that his reputation in the neighborhood is shot and the next time the little guy sees him, he may even strike first.
Alexander Kabakov
All the Article in Russian as of June 02, 2006
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