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Nuclear Crisis
// Iran is put to discussion
Five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany began talks concerning Iran nuclear problem in Vienna yesterday. New set of proposals aims at making Tehran end its uranium enrichment activities and return to the negotiating table. The U.S. caused a sensation on the eve of talks in Vienna by declaring its readiness to hold direct talks with Iran despite having no diplomatic relations with it for a long time. The reason why the U.S. softened its position and put aside the military intervention scenario might be that it hopes to agree with world powers, including Russia, upon sanctions against Iran, should the latter refuse to cooperate again.
“Six of Vienna” and American Ace
Several hours before her flight to Vienna to attend six-sided talks on Iran between the U.S., Russia, China, France, Great Britain, and Germany, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made a declaration which experts regard as a drastic shift of Washington’s policy on Iran. “To underscore our commitment to a diplomatic solution and to enhance the prospects for success, as soon as Iran fully and verifiably suspends its enrichment and reprocessing activities, the United States will come to the table with our EU colleagues and meet with Iran's representatives,” said Condoleezza Rice.
US Department of State summoned Swiss ambassador in Washington on Wednesday. It was decided that he would deliver Rice’s announcement to Tehran officials. This intricate diplomatic procedure is needed because Washington broke off diplomatic ties with Iran 26 years ago, after the 1979 seizure of US Embassy in Tehran by Iranian students. As a result, the officials of the two countries have not had any contacts for almost three decades. This is why Rice’s announcement about the readiness of the U.S. to begin talks with Iran without resuming diplomatic relations caused a sensation.
Meanwhile, two more points of Rice’s announcement attracted attention. First, she made it clear that the U.S. agreed upon “key elements” of the package of proposals, which is being discussed in Vienna, with other members of six-sided talks (another unnamed representative of US Department of State spoke of the possible support for the proposals from Russia and China on that day). Second, Condoleezza Rice pointed out that US administration’s softening its policy on Iran does not mean Washington will resort only to carrot, and not stick, approach. According to Rice, “if the Iranian regime maintains its current course, it will incur only great costs.” However, Rice did not specify what precisely is meant by this statement. “We hope the Iranian government deliberately considers our proposal in the nearest future,” said Rice. Thus, US diplomats took the lead on the eve of meeting in Vienna, throwing out their trump ace, which had been hidden in the sleeve, on the negotiating table.
Washington Sets the Tone
US initiative received active support yesterday not only from Euro-Atlantic partners, the EU and Japan, but also from Russia and China who had been distancing from Washington more and more lately. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs made a statement that reminded of the long-forgotten “honeymoon” in US-Russia relations. “Moscow welcomes the US declaration of its readiness to join direct talks with Tehran to settle the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. It has been necessary to expand the framework of the negotiating process long ago. Moscow hopes that the US participation in the talks leads to improvement in US-Iran relations,” is said in the statement.
Telephone talks between presidents Putin and Bush (Bush was their initiator, said the Kremlin’s press service), and between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, right before the summit in Vienna, testify to the recent increase of cooperation between US and Russian top officials.
Similar revival of diplomatic contacts concerning Iran could be observed in US-China relations as well. “China supports all actions which can settle Iran nuclear problem by negotiations, and it welcomes US participation in the process,” said China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Liu Jianchao. According to Liu Jianchao, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhao Xing talked to Condoleezza Rice over the phone on Wednesday night, expressing hope that “the parties find a mutually acceptable solution to the problem.”
Taking into account that the proposals discussed in Vienna will become a package of “carrot and stick” measures, experts believe that “carrot” measures include offers to build light-water reactors for Iran, and to secure the import of nuclear fuel to Iran, but only on the condition Iran stops its own nuclear programs and uranium enrichment activities. Speaking about the “stick” measures, final agreement has not been reached yet. Observers regard the readiness of the U.S. to abandon its former demand for UN Security Council resolution allowing to use military force against Iran (the notorious 42nd article of the 7th chapter of UN Charter) as a sign of accomplished or potential compromise with the “party of peace” represented by Russia and China. Washington hopes to receive a concession from Moscow and Beijing in return for its own concession. The scheme of Bush administration is that Russia and China would agree to include a mention of the 41st article of the 7th chapter of UN Charter into the renewed draft of the resolution. This article provides for the possibility to impose economic and political sanctions on Iran in case it keeps refusing to settle its nuclear issues. Thus, such scenario will allow all parties to act honorably, showing they have made mutual concessions without sacrificing their principles.
However, according to Kommersant’s sources in Washington, Bush administration still is not 100 percent sure that Russia and China will agree to any mention of sanctions in the UN Security Council draft resolution. This might explain Rice’s stipulation that “if the Iranian regime maintains its current course, it will incur only great costs.” The U.S. makes it clear that it will not have Iran try its patience forever. Apparently, Washington did not abandon the military intervention scenario but only postponed it, trying to solve the problem by diplomatic methods.
Dialogue of the Deaf Again
Obviously, the success of US initiative and that of the package of proposals from the Vienna Six will strongly depend on Iran’s actions. Meanwhile, Iran has not changed its position in the course of yesterday: it became the only country to openly express its disappointment in US offer. Commenting on Condoleezza Rice’s initiative, leading Iranian mass media called it “American propaganda”.
“We shall never discuss our nuclear program with the U.S., the program which we managed to carry out owing to the efforts of our scientists,” said Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh yesterday. However, Rice received the most full-scale rebuff from her Iranian counterpart Manuchehr Mottaki. He allowed that Tehran could begin direct talks with Washington, but only on the condition if the U.S. does not demand Iran to stop its uranium enrichment activities. And since this demand was made, Tehran rejects to hold any talks whatsoever. “We shall not give up our inherent right to enrich uranium, and we do not intend to discuss it. We do not regard US Secretary of State’s announcement as a new way to solve the problem,” snapped Iranian minister. Besides, seizing upon the chance, he again plunged into loud exposures of American policy, claiming that “those who took part in torturing Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo detainees, do not have the right to judge such democratic countries as Iran.” Iranian minister believes that “the main goal of Condoleezza Rice’s statements is to come out of the isolation in which the U.S. has found itself.”
Meanwhile, the rapprochement of world powers limits Tehran’s possibility to play on antagonisms between the “party of peace” and the “party of war”. Thus, the “isolation” in which the U.S. found itself, according to Mottaki, threatens Iran rather than the U.S. Yet, Iran has no fear of US sanctions, since it has been living under this threat for many years. Besides, Iran does not think Russia and China will seriously oppose its activities.
Sergei Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of June 02, 2006
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