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Seven Don’t Wait for One
// G7 casts doubts of Moscow’s chairmanship in G8
In the end of last week, the international conference “Chairmanship of Russia in ‘Big Eight: What’s next?” completed its work in Wilton Park (UK). The completion of the conference coincided with finishing on Friday of the meeting of finance ministers of G7 countries. In its final communiqué the ministers announced their intention to hold a meeting in Washington. It means that there will be no Moscow “meeting” of finance ministers, which was planned in February of next year. The chairmanship of Russia in G8 that is scheduled for next months could be under the question. Kommersant correspondent SERGEY STROKAN’ reports from Wilton Park.
“Authoritarians of all countries, unite!”
The first sensation of the conference, which opened last Tuesday, happened before the opening. The majority of Russian participants reserved in the program did not come to Wilton Park. Among those who didn’t show up for the conversation about Russia’s chairmanship were Igor Shuvalov, Presidential Advisor and Russian sherpa in G8; Arkady Dvorkovich, head of the Expertise Department of Russian Presidential Administration; Yuri Fedotov, Russian Ambassador in United Kingdom; Mikhail Lesin, Presidential Advisor; Mikhail MArgelov, Chairman of Foreign Relation Committee of Federation Council; Konstantin Kosachev, Chairman of Foreign Relation Committee of State Duma; as well as few high ranking officials of Foreign Ministry and Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. As a result, beside the experts from several academic institutions, the Russian side in Wilton Park was represented Vladimir Pozner, famous TV anchor; Vsevolod Chaplin, Deputy Chairman of External Church Relations Department of Moscow Patriarchate; and Yuri Isakov, Special Envoy and special representative of Sergey Lavrov for preparation of G8 summit.
British foundation Wilton Park, which was created after the initiative of Winston Churchill in 1946, was designed as one of the instruments of democratic changes in post-war Germany. Later on, it was decided to spread the foundation’s experience for all the rest of the world. As a result, for 60 years of its existence, Wilton Park became a unique place for brainstorming sessions, which are arranged by leading politicians, diplomats and experts for solution of the most difficult international problems. The participants of Wilton Park conferences are gathered in a remote medieval castle in one of the most picturesque corners of England. There, for several days they discuss behind the closed doors problems that could be as easily discussed in any other open international forums. Before the conference begins, every one of the participants is warned about the strict rules. The participants can freely use received information, but not one of the speakers can be quoted by the name without specific permission.
Everybody was waiting to hear the reason why the forum was so unanimously ignored by Russian VIPs. The answer was found in the first speech of Andrew Kuchins, Moscow Director of Carnegie Foundation. His report “2008 and further: Eastern wind in Russia replaces western one?” exposed the idea that instead of a strategic alliance between Russia and the West, there is an alliance between Moscow and Beijing being formed. According to the author of the report, there are several economic, military and political reasons that make Russia and China embrace each other. Both countries have direct interests to explore natural resources of Siberia and Far East. Moscow and Beijing want to prevent a spread of American influence in the world and they share similar views for democracy. “Changing the classic phrase of Marx ‘Proletarians of all countries, unite!’ the today slogan should be ‘Authoritarians of all countries, unite!’” Andrew Kuchins concluded.
It is interesting that nobody from 80 conference participants argued with Kuchins. There was only one remark said that if classical proletarians did not have anything to lose except their own chains -- according to Marx, the authoritarians have to lose a lot. The tensed audience finally broke up with laughter. These people, sitting around a huge oval table, surrounded by mirrors and golden lions, would not find a common language with VIPs from Moscow. It looks like after taking a look at the participant’s roster and forum’s agenda, which had a lot of emphasis on democracy, civil society and freedom of press, the Kremlin decided not to engaged in useless polemics before St. Petersburg’s G8 summit.
The law is tough, but this is not a law
The speeches of other forum participants were even tougher than the report of Moscow Carnegie Center. A high-ranking British diplomat, who asked not to name him, spoke in non-diplomatic terms. He said right away that “we desire to see Russia like us.” Then, the Foreign Office official named several reasons why this desire is practically impossible to achieve. Among the reasons, he named “corruption, increase of the special services powers, overly centralized power, state control over the media, and rise of nationalism.” While speaking about the infamous project of the law about non-commercial organizations (NCO), which was adopted by the State Duma in first reading right before the conference, the diplomat stated: “We would still have to realize the scale of the damage, if this law would be finally adopted.” “If 10 years ago nobody had doubts that Russia goes to the West, it is not clear now where it goes,” he said.
The words “non-commercial organizations” had the same effect on the audience as a red flag for the bull. And this was understandable. There was nothing new for the audience in the statements about corruption, reinforcement of the vertical powers, Chechnya, YUKOS, or increased power of law enforcement organizations. All these issues were purely Russian and didn’t affect directly any of the participants. However, the problem with NCO had direct connection with not only Russian, but also with foreign non-government organizations working in Russian territory. A lot of these organizations have serious influence for parliaments, governments and public opinion on the West. Diplomats in the audience, a lot of who are accredited in Moscow, did not like to face a perspective that Russian authorities might shut down foreign organizations considered as “unfriendly.” The reason for shutting them down is re-registration. “This project of the law is bad because it makes all non-government organizations (foreign of Russian) to re-register no matter of their origins and source of financing. Because of that, the authorities get the ability to look at the activities of these organizations under the microscope from the “friendliness” point of view. It is also scary that the law was adopted in the first reading. The fact that 370 parliamentarians voted for the law shows one more time the power of the Kremlin over the parliament. Whatever the Kremlin decides the parliament will support,” a representative of European Council told Kommersant correspondent A leading expert of Centre of Strategic Research in Ottawa (Canada) said that if Moscow will adopt this law it would have to pay a high price for it. “Draconian measures against NCO, which are considered in the West as one of the key mechanism of any civil society, will cast the doubts not only Russia’s chairmanship in ‘Big Eight,’ but also endanger Russia’s long-term prospective with leading liberal democracies in the world,” the expert thinks.
In the mean time, the speakers developed the diplomat’s thesis and asked the same question: “If we want that they should be like us, then what should we think about this law?” When the tension reached its critical point, Yuri Isakov, Special Russian Envoy, got involved into the discussion. It looks like Kremlin sent him especially for such difficult cases. Despite the overwhelming numbers of opponents, he was able to settle the issue in a fast and efficient way. He did not take defense position saying that “you should not teach us a democracy. We are not kids and we can live in Russia without your lessons.” He just made a remark that the law was not finally adopted yet. “So, what are you arguing about if the law is not adopted yet?” Isakov asked. This simple argument had a great effect. The hostile audience, full of democratic spirit, became a placid right away and started to believe that everything is going to be OK with the law about NCO. In the meantime, the Special Envoy of Russian Foreign Minister for G8 took control over the conference and started to talk about the Russian agenda in the coming G8 meeting in St. Petersburg. He talked about issues of energy security, fighting with dangerous diseases, and development of education, all of which would decrease the gap in these fields between developed and developing countries.
“He got out pretty good from the situation,” one of the conference participants told Kommersant correspondent. “However, the problems are still remaining. I am not sure that this time Moscow will be able to get out with a joke.”
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 05, 2005
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