Islam Karimov Hit by Boycott
The European Union announced yesterday the embargo for the sale of weapons to Uzbekistan and said it will prohibit high ranking Uzbek officials from enter EU countries. The sanctions were imposed for "indiscriminate use of force" during the suppression of the uprising in Andijan and prevention of independent investigation of the events. In fact, it is a beginning of international process to isolate Islam Karimov regime. Russia intends to use this situation to its advantage and turn Uzbekistan in Moscow's main geopolitical partner in the region.
Regime Non Grata
Yesterday the countries of European Union lost the right to supply Uzbekistan weapons, military equipment and everything that can be used by local armed forces. The decision was made during the session in Luxemburg by the heads of the foreign ministries of EU countries. The European countries decided that Uzbek special services and army "indiscriminately used excessive force" against the demonstrations in Andijan. Because EU did not supply weapons to Tashkent anyway, the European countries attempted to make a step further. It was decided to create a list of Uzbek officials, who would not get entry visas to the EU countries. Moreover, the European Union decided to suspend the Agreement of partnership and cooperation with Uzbekistan. Brussels does not exclude a possibility to freeze later on bank accounts of those, who, according to European authorities, were participating in the shooting, if Karimov will continue to prevent an independent investigation.
It is interesting that the sanctions were imposed on Uzbekistan right after the visit in Tashkent by Daniel Freed, deputy of the US Secretary of State for Eurasia. On Friday, he was discussing with Uzbek authorities the issue of American military base Karshi-Khanabad. Uzbekistan insists on immediate withdrawal of the base. There were no agreements reached. In the same moment the US Congress received the project resolution, which demands from President George Bush " to use the voice and influence of United States" to make the UN Security Council send the Islam Karimov's case, "who is guilty in the massacre on May 13, 2005, in Andijan," to International Court. One of the document authors, Congressman William Delahunt, Democrat, said the no actions policy of the American administration toward theregime of Islam Karimov "feeds up the feeling of mistrust to America around the world" and "gives a reason to accuse the United States in double standards." If the resolution would be adopted, it will become a law. In the same time the Department of State completely froze financial aid to Tashkent (about $21 million per year).
The First Step towards Isolation
The news about the introduction of the sanctions by European Union against Uzbekistan caught Uzbek president while he was outside of the country. Right before, he made an official visit to Malaysia, which government holds harsh anti-Western positions. Nobody from the Uzbek officials had the courage to comment on the Brussels decision without the boss. Those who spoke up on the condition of anonymity, said that Uzbekistan will not suffer from the sanction. According to Kommersant source from the Uzbek Defense Ministry, the absence of the European weapons will not lower the Uzbek army combat readiness: "The weapons that are left after USSR would be enough to the end of the century. And if we have to buy new ones, than we have contracts with Russia."
Tashkent understood that sooner or later the confrontation with the West would end up with full break up. For that reason, Karimov made a earlier bet for Moscow and Beijing. The Uzbek army equipped mostly with Soviet arms and equipment. The parts and new weapons are being supplied from Russia. Moreover, within the framework of Shanghai Organization of Cooperation Tashkent can buy light arms and ammunition in China. The U.S. was also helping to supply Uzbek army before the Andijan events. Washington was delivering light weapons, uniforms and non-combat equipment. The shipment stopped when Washington started to demand from Tashkent the independent investigation of Andijan tragedy. In the same time, Uzbekistan asks to withdraw American military base in Karshi-Khanabad. Condoleezza Rice, US Secretary of State clearly warned Uzbek authorities that their actions could lead to full international isolation of Uzbekistan.
The decisions of the EU are the fist step to such isolation. The West, in a sense, brought up a guilty verdict to the regime of Islam Karimov for mass murder of civilians in Andijan.
Starting from yesterday, Uzbekistan became the only country in post-Soviet space that is facing such serious international sanctions. And the Uzbek authorities are not doing better than, let say, their Byelorussian colleagues. The Minsk leadership was just announced as "persona non grata" in Europe, but nobody demands to sue Alexander Lukashenko in International Criminal Court. Now, Karimov can just follow the example of Turkmenia's ruler and totally isolate itself from the outside world. It is clear the EU and United States will not limit themselves to these actions.
Dangerous Friendship
Several years ago Islam Karimov was trying to establish a relationship with West and create the reputation as the most pro-Western leader in all Central Asia: he participated in anti-Russian bloc GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldavia); he actively cooperated with the USA and even allowed American base on Uzbek territory. Moscow, of course, did not like all these movements. Now, when the West turned away from Uzbekistan, Russia is ready to use it for its own advantage and take Tashkent under the Kremlin wing. In exchange, Moscow would ask Tashkent to take hard pro-Russian orientation. Karimov has no way out, because he needs any allies he can find, especially giving in consideration the fact that Uzbekistan did not have too good of relationship with its neighbors.
Recently Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov visited Uzbekistan, where he was present during the Russian-Uzbek maneuvers. He was the firs, who reacted on news about preparing sanctions. Ivanov said that Western embargo on weapons supply to Uzbekistan will not affect Moscow and Tashkent military-political cooperation. "This embargo does not bother us a bit. Our relationships with Uzbekistan are getting stronger in all spheres, including military technical cooperation. We will continue to develop friendly relationship with this country," the minister promised.
Moscow already is trying to make Uzbekistan, rejected by the West, as its satellite. Russia also expects to widen its economic presence in Uzbekistan. Moscow and Tashkent actively discuss new mutual trade, economic and energy projects. It is expected that some of these projects would be presented during the session of bilateral inter-government commission, which will be held on October 10-12.
Understanding that it has to earn the trust of Karimov, Moscow is actively helping to Uzbek justice to finish the process over the participants of Andijan events. For instance, Moscow holds in Ivanovo prison facility the group of citizens from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, who are accused in the preparation of the uprising. The Kremlin already expressed readiness to extradite them to Uzbekistan, where they most likely face a death penalty.
However, the friendship with Uzbekistan might cost Moscow a lot. First of all, it might completely kill all the diplomatic and specialists' efforts to improve Russian image abroad. Second, the partnership of Russia and Uzbekistan cannot be long and stable -- it will last as long as Karimov’s presidency. Even if the Karimov successor would be a person from his surrounding, most likely he will reconsider all the agreements with Moscow and would go to the West to ask for forgiveness.
However, it is not the worst way of development for Uzbekistan. Andijan events made almost impossible to transfer the power without shedding the blood. And if Uzbekistan will explode with civil war, Russia might get involve in as well.
&
Who was suffering from the Sanctions imposed by EU and the US
On April 18, 2002, the EU prohibited the entrance to Europe to the President of Zimbabwe Robert Mugabe and 19 members of his government. Their accounts were also frozen and the embargo for the weapons supply in this African country was also imposed. Four days after, the United States forbade Mugabe and his associates to visit the USA. The reasons for such measures were: an exile from Zimbabwe the head of the European observers in presidential elections; humanitarian crisis in the country; and failure to follow democratic principles. On July 22, 2002 the EU prohibited entrance for another 52 Zimbabwean officials. On Feb.19, 2003 Mugabe was allowed to participate in French -African summit, which was held in Paris. The rest of the sanctions are still being enforced. Moreover, on March 7, 2003, the American accounts of Mugabe and 76 of his associates were frozen.
On Feb 27, 2003, the EU and the US forbade the entrance to these countries to the leader of Pridnestrovie Igor Smirnov and 16 of his ministers. The reason was "exit of the republic's leaders from the process of political settlement of the conflict with Moldavia." On Aug.26 and 27, 2004, right after the closing of 10 Moldovan schools in Pridnestrovie, the EU and the US prohibited to issue an entry visa to 10 more officials.
On June 5, 2003, the EU limited inter-government and cultural contact with Cuba, because Havana lifted a moratorium for death penalty and arrested in April of 2003 75 Cuban dissidents. On Jan. 31, 2005, EU suspend the sanctions, after parts of the dissidents were released and Fidel Castro asked the EU to normalize the relationship.
On Oct.20, 2004, the United States announced the cancellation of any financial aid to the Byelorussian government, except for the humanitarian aid, because of the repressions of Minsk against the independent media, non-government organizations and opposition forces. On Nov.25, 2004 the US prohibit Alexander Lukashenko and other officials to enter the country. Earlier, on Nov.22, 2004, the EU forbade to issue the entry visa to the several Byelorussian representatives, including president, and announce the cancellation of the contacts between the ministries. The reason for the sanctions was alleged falsification of the result of the Oct.17 referendum for limitation of the presidential terms. On Sept. 29, 2005 the European Parliament asked the EU to freeze the accounts of Byelorussian officials and to add more people to the "no entry" list. The proposal is being discussed.
Yuri Chernogaev, Tashkent; Vladimir Soloviev, Mikhail Zygar'
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 05, 2005
|
