President of Russia Vladimir Putin (center), president of Kazakhstan Noursultan Nazarbaev (left) and Tajikistan Emomali Rakhmonov (right) at the Summit of the Shanghai Organization of Cooperation
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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Rights Shakeup
// Russia pushes Asia toward an ultimatum to America
Third force
A meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organization member state leaders took place on Tuesday in Astana, capital of Kazakhstan. With observers from India, Iran and Mongolia taking part, the heads of state passed a declaration whose point unexpected turned out to be a message to the United States that it and its allies in the antiterrorist coalition have finished their business in Afghanistan under Operation Enduring Freedom and should now leave Central Asia, where they still have bases and their airplanes still fly. Kommersant special correspondent Andrey Kolesnikov thinks that this was an ultimatum. Shanghai Organization leaders say that it would not have been possible without Mother Russia.
At the opening of the expanded meeting, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbaev congratulated Enkhbayar Nambaryn on his election as president of Mongolia. No one was surprised. Obviously, everyone knew (or pretended to know) that there had been an election in Mongolia. Enkhbayar Nambaryn enthusiastically thanked those present and it was notable that the Mongolian president speaks Russian better than any of the other leaders (leaving aside Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz and Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref).
Furthermore, with his perfect Russian, if the Mongolian president suddenly found himself in a session of the Russian Federation Council, he would sound much more commanding than many, many of the actual members. Nazarbaev was obviously happy to congratulate the Mongolian president (and speak to him in general). In his short opening speech, Nazarbaev said that the Shanghai Organization has been “called to be a shield that will protect us from the terrorist threat.” The Kazakh negotiators present looked back and forth at each other, clearly unsure of how to assess the importance of their president's words, while FSB head Nikolay Patrushev and Russian Minister of Culture Alexander Sokolov, seated behind Russian President Vladimir Putin, nodded their heads in a frenzy, as if guaranteeing his words. Nazarbaev repeated that representatives from India, Iran and Pakistan were present as observers for the first time. That fact was so strongly emphasized in the next several minutes that it was understood that the organizers intended to make their presence the main intrigue of the whole affair. It did not work out that way, however, as another intrigue supplanted it.
The representative of the People's Republic of China, who spoke after Nazarbaev, was amazing specific. His public appearances are usually notable for their lack of content – in the opinion of independent observers, of course. But it had always been clear that he was able to speak differently.
Hu Jintao said that an interbank association must be promptly set up within the framework of the Shanghai Organization. He suggested doing that in order to unite the authorities and business (not for the first time). He stated that he had decided to set credit conditions, terms and interest rates, about which he first spoke in Tashkent last year, even more advantageously to improve relationships and development of trade between the Shanghai Organization countries. (The total sum of credit available had shrunk from $1 billion in Tashkent to $900 million, however. Along the road from Tashkent to Astana, $100 million got lost somewhere.)
Then he said something that should have set someone on guard.
“In our opinion,” he said, “the lord of the fates of the Central Asian countries are those countries themselves. They are calm and wise enough to take care of their own affairs at home.”
Just whom did he have in mind when he implied that some power wanted to be the lord of the fates of the Central Asian countries? That became known when the final text of the declaration of the heads of state of the Shanghai Organization was unveiled.
Putin used very pretty words in his speech. The new threats bear a transnational character, he said.
“But they are not faceless in their specific manifestations. They have contractors and executors and our task is not only to find and disarm them, but mainly to prevent them,” he said.
He gave an exhaustive answer to the unavoidable question of what to do further.
“Without delay, we must define in what way and in what forms we must unite our forces. Modern mass media and mass communications should allow us to find an economical and nonstandard possibility.”
Did I understand correctly that journalists will now finally be good for something?
Uzbek President Islam Karimov, a man with a penetrating glance, was studying the journalists present as the other leaders spoke. (There were not so many of them, since there was a strict quota on the parties from the member countries, not more than 70-80 persons total.) Then he glared at the journalists whom he thought deserved it. I counted two such victims. Holding a pen and notebook in hand is far from proof of the jornalistc profession, however.
Karimov's speech was predictable. He mention destabilization in the Central Asian countries “that cannot but cause strategic uncertainty and tangles of contradictions. Only part, a small part, of the strategic plan has been uncovered as a result of recent events!”
He went on to reveal the content of the plan with great openness (for him).
“The goal is to create manageable destabilization, to impose a system of behavior from without!”
Of course, having fired on hi own citizens at Andijan, it was preferable for him to think that he was battling outside influences and not his own people.
And who are those powers, finally? No one named even one name. Karimov continued:
“I am alarmed by the situation in Afghanistan. Opium poppies are growing at an extraordinarily fast rate. And the contingent from the antiterrorist forces clearly has no influence over that process.”
Karimov did not mean that the soldiers of the coalition could not do anything to slow down the increase in opium poppies. Finally he named one specific guilty party for the hardships taking place in Central Asia. That was a little later.
The president of Mongolia gave a short and exceptionally sensible speech. (Therefore there is nothing to quote from it.) Then it was time for the leaders to sign the declaration and agreements.
The serious events here had occurred already. They were in the restricted session. After a heated discussion of the text of the joint declaration, two new paragraphs appeared in it. They were telling of much. They made all of the veiled hints in the speeches crystal clear.
Here are the two paragraphs:
“We support and will support in the future the efforts of the international coalition carrying out the antiterrorist operation in Afghanistan. Today we note positive dynamics and stabilization of the internal political situation in Afghanistan. A number of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries provided infrastructure for the temporary dislocation of forces from the member states of the antiterrorist coalition and provided territory and airspace for military transit in the interests of the antiterrorist operation.
“Considering the completion of the active military phase of the antiterrorist operation in Afghanistan, the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization consider it essential that participants in the antiterrorist operation define a final time limit for the temporary use of the infrastructural objects mentioned and for the presence of military forces on the territory of Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states.”
Sources in the delegations say that it was Acting President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiev who suddenly insisted those formulations. He suggested them right in the session and was enthusiastically supported by Uzbekistan's Karimov.
The leaders seemed to think that any delay would be fatal. As a result, the coalition members received something like an ultimatum. An answer is demanded from them about when they will leave the territory of the Central Asian republics (Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan). The US and its allies have not heard anything like it before. Where did it come from?
The Kazakh president partly answered that question at the press conference.
“Here, around this table, are leaders of countries who represent half of humanity,” he said, puffing up slightly as he spoke.
“I hope our friends the correspondents will support our initiative,” said Hu Jintao said with less self-assurance. Putin devoted a lot of time to the text of the declaration in selected spots. He said that it was impermissible and impractical to impose patterns and standards on the countries of Central Asia through the threat of force, and much more so its use. The resolution, he thought, reflects world diversity.
Putin thus showed his agreement at least with the most interesting points of the declaration.
Incidentally, he was the one who did the most after September 11 [2001] so that the military bases of the Americans and their allies appeared in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and flew threw Central Asian airspace. He could not have but been pleased then at having closed the Russian-Tajikistani border off from the ambitious Taliban with the help of the American fighters and without additional efforts or funds.
After his statement, Putin did not lose interest in what was going on there, but continually glanced over the shoulder of President Rakhmonov of Tajikistan to read ahead in his speech. The only interesting thought in his speech came at the end. He forcefully supported the ultimatum buried in the declaration.
“The word community will soon feel the presence on the world arena of such organizations as the Shanghai Organization,” he said.
After the press conference, a source in the Russian delegation, who did everything possible to remain unnamed, said that “it was really the Russian leadership that had to know how long the antiterrorist coalition will use the infrastructure of some of the Shanghai Organization states for its operation in Afghanistan.”
There was no word of anyone forcing anyone else to leave, neither from Afghanistan, nor from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Just that the airports had been provided for the duration of the active military phase – nothing personal. Just that the world will hear of the Shanghai Organization, as Rakhmonov said. Things were calm in Astana after the press conference. The presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan met separately.
“Sergey,” Nazabaev addressed Putin's aide Prokhodko with an offended tone, “how many papers do you set in front of your own, and you give me nothing?” It is true that Prokhodko had just set a sheaf of papers before his boss.
The desk in front f Nazarbaev was indeed empty, but Prokhodko did not think it necessary to react to that need. Instead Putin did so himself.
“You, Nursultan Abishevich, have only a chatfest,” Vladimir Vladimirovich said.
“Oh well,” Nazabaev said, cheering up and apparently not understanding Putin's words or thought. “Let's go. We have met many times. Tomorrow they will sign in our presence…what?”
He cynically checked his colleague's knowledge.
He looked at Minister of Industry Viktor Khristenko, who absentmindedly said “We are preparing.”
“What should it be?” Nazarbaev repeated.
“It will be, will be…” Khristenko tried to satisfy Putin.
“Will it be Kurmangazy?” asked Nazabaev. (That is the name of a Kazakh composer and an oil and gas field.)
Here everyone understood that Nazarbaev was unsure what was to go on tomorrow and was checking for his own benefit.
“Four documents,” Khristenko replied. “Two concern Rosneft and joint activities with Kurmangaz, product sharing, and they will be signed by Rosneft, Kurmangaz and the Kazakh government. Then there are two agreements…”
“That's great!” the Kazakh president whispered.
“Excellent!” repeated Putin.
“There's something left on it,” Khristenko added. “I think we can correct it…”
“Overnight,” Nazarbaev said quickly.
“Tonight we'll fix it, I think,” Khristenko agreed.
Just before the journalists left, Nazarbaev told Putin about his negotiations with Hu Jintao.
“The Chinese are preparing to work on the Irtysh [River]. That will effects the ecosystems of Kazakhstan and Russia. We have to think about what to do…,” he said.
It was clear from the glance Putin gave him in return that he would have preferred to wait until the journalists left the room.
All the Article in Russian as of July 06, 2005
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