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The Price of Withdrawal
// And the price of remaining
The thesis that withdrawal takes a lot of money and time is the major one in a long lasting dispute between Russia and Georgia. So, in Moscow they say that the troops can leave Georgia not earlier than in seven or eight years.
However, the problem of withdrawal is more serious as it may seem. Russia will either preserve or lose its presence in Transcaucasia.
The main strategic partner of Moscow in this region is Moscow. There is a great Russian military base. However, the way to the Russian base in Armenia goes through the Georgian territory and the presence of the Russian soldiers there is a sort of guarantee that the way won’t be blocked.
If Russia loses its influence on Georgia it will weaken its positions on the whole territory of Transcaucasia. In its turn it will put an end to the attempts to gain influence on the Central Asia.
That’s why Russia is struggling for the right to be present in Georgia. Kremlin doesn’t want just to normalize relations with Georgia. It wants to radically change relations with Georgia. They want to preserve influence. So in Moscow they put it like all or nothing.
However, Moscow’s behavior may make politicians of the former Soviet republics wonder and makes positions of Russia on their territories quite shaky.
Gennady Sysoev
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 11, 2005
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