Operation Runaway Stork
On Sunday, March 6, parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in Moldavia. For the first time Russia openly stakes upon the opposition - not the present authorities as it was in Georgia and in the Ukraine. However, it seems as though the result won't be any different.
A Communist
Moldavia is the only CIS country in which the president is elected not by direct open vote of the population but by the parliament. Four years ago the communist party gained a sweeping victory in the parliamentary elections and its leader, Vladimir Voronin, became the president.
At first everything seemed to be working in favor of Russia: it was clear that the communists had won because of the support on the part of the pro-Russian voters; there emerged hope that the drawn-out Pridnestrovye conflict would be settled; Moldavia practically ceased participating in the work of GUUAM (an association of the CIS countries alternative to the pro-Russian Eurasian Economic Community) and of all the CIS leaders president Voronin became one of the most frequent guests in Moscow.
Things collapsed in November 2003. After lengthy negotiations and apparatus work Moscow, Kishinev and Tiraspol reached an agreement on the draft memorandum on the settlement in Pridnestrovye. The document envisaged the set-up of the so-called asymmetric federation in Moldavia, which was to be joined by Pridnestrovye and Gagauzia as autonomies. Everything had been negotiated, Russia's president Vladimir Putin was to arrive in Kishinev. However, literally on the eve of the signing Vladimir Voronin announced that he had changed his mind. There was a big scandal, the visit of the Russian president had to be cancelled urgently.
There were several reasons for this sudden attack on the part of the Moldavian president. Firstly, in the course of the work on the memorandum pro-Romanian politicians directly accused Voronin of betrayal. Taking into account the fact that the communists had failed to cope with the economic problems (Moldavia is the poorest country in Europe and one of the poorest in the CIS) and their popularity was drastically decreasing the president did not want to provide the opposition with another trump. Secondly, it was at that time that the Revolution of Roses took place in Georgia. It demonstrated that Russia lacked the sufficient tools to protect the ruling authorities in the CIS countries. Apparently the president had no intention of provoking the “Revolution of the Vine” and he hurried to change his tactics by staking upon Europe. The authorities began accusing Moscow of supporting separatism and transferred the game onto the field of their most irreconcilable opponents inside the country, the pro-Romanian Christian Democratic People's Party being their mouthpiece.
A Democrat
In its turn Moscow hurried to look for a new stooge. Kishinev's mayor Serafim Urechean was an ideal candidature for this role. Urechean had had no special liking for the president since 2002 when Vladimir Voronin had tried to push his man to the office of Kishinev's mayor.
Urechean's popularity with the citizens of the capital as well as the fact that he was viewed as a moderate politician able to unite heterogeneous political forces - ranging from the leftist who were growing dissatisfied with Voronin's decision to walk away from Moscow to the rightist-centrist - spoke in his favor. It did not trouble Moscow that in the autumn of 2003 Urechean was among those who openly stood against the signing of the memorandum on the settlement. The fact that in the past Urechean and his advocates had created the Democratic Moldova united anti-communist block of opposition forces with an apparent support of the West did not trouble them either.
At first it seemed that Moscow's support of Urechean was actually meant to demonstrate to president Voronin that there were no irreplaceable people and was called to make the latter change his mind. Voronin didn't. He continued with the policy chosen in November 2003 promising the population that the country would join the European Union almost in the course of his next term in office. Meanwhile there occurred the events in the Ukraine, which provided president Voronin with another argument against a rapprochement with Moscow.
As a result Russia had to get down to real work on promoting its new stooge. From a dark horse Urechean evolved into Moscow's apparent favorite. He drastically moderated the tone of his statements on the relations between Moldavia and Russia. Moreover, he began criticizing the country's leadership for the destructive foreign policy in the Eastern direction.
Tiraspol's authorities took a quite loyal stand in relation to Moscow's new stooge. In January, the leader of Pridnestrovye, Igor Smirnov, had consultations in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. After that they began talking on the left bank of the Dniester River about the need of active participation in the Moldavian elections – although prior to that they unambiguously said that they had nothing to do with those elections. The authorities, the mass media and the public organizations of Pridnestrovye called upon the citizens of the region who had Moldavian citizenship to support the democratic forces of Moldavia.
Having sensed real threat the authorities decided to resort to a tested expedient – to discredit the leader of the opposition. At first the president did not allow Urechean to visit Moscow saying that he was wasting the state means. In the December of the last year, they brought criminal action against the mayor of the capital. He was accused of exceeding his authority and of doing damage to the city economy in the amount of 4 million Lei (around $ 320 thousand).
Meanwhile the process of preparation for the elections was gaining pace. The leading political forces began competing for the status of the most revolutionary force. The opposition parties fought for the orange color in their symbolism. Christian Democrats turned out to be the first ones. Urechean's Democratic Moldova block had no choice but to take the color that was the closest to orange – yellow.
The power party keeps up with them in its revolutionary fit. Komsomol members protesting against the anti-democratic city authorities headed by mayor Urechean come out into the streets. They wave banners with Che Guevara's portraits and with the word “Revolution” written on them. President Voronin has aired his offer to the Ukrainian revolutionary singer, Ruslana, to accept Moldavian citizenship.
For the time being, according to all polls, it is the ruling party that wins: it collects 50-60% of the votes. No wonder - practically all media resources are in the hands of the communists.
However, the opposition (both Democratic Moldova and Christian Democrats) will not give in. The Christian Democratic People's Party has already announced that the results of the elections will be falsified. Beginning with March 7 it intends to hold a continuous protest in the central square.
An Immigrant
Foreign observers often compare events in Moldavia with the events in Georgia and in the Ukraine. There is no doubt that similarities do exist however there are certain differences too. Most importantly - this time Moscow has openly staked upon the opposition.
On February 18, the State Duma adopted the enactment, according to which, economic sanctions and a visa regime could be introduced against Moldavia. However, this measure makes absolutely no sense and can only backlash by causing irritation with Moscow's interference, which is something that president Voronin is taking advantage of.
Migrants are Moscow's main resource. According to some data, of Moldavia's total population (around 4,5 million people) almost one million lives outside the country, of them 700 thousand are in Russia. This is a great force taking into account the rightless position of the Moldavian migrants in Russia. Many of them live illegally and they can be easily pushed in the direction of the “right” choice. Besides many “Russian” Moldavians do not support Voronin thinking that his course at the aggravation of the relations with Russia can seriously complicate their lives.
On February 19, a meeting took place in DK Gorbunova, Moscow. It was officially called the congress of Patria Moldova (public organization of assistance to Moldavian citizens abroad). Mass media called the event the “gastarbeiter congress”. At the congress Moldavian migrants announced about their support of Serafim Urechean. The event received wide coverage in the Russian mass media and quite naturally generated irritation with the Moldavian authorities.
According to the organizers, more than 1000 people participated in the congress. The Moldavian authorities name a different figure - according to the BASA-press agency, “they managed to huddle a little more than 300 people”. Moreover, a fierce discrediting campaign against the participants of the meeting was launched in Moldavia. BASA-press reported: “In the lobby the participants actually did not conceal either their criminal affiliation or their bias” and “the statements made in the course of this event visually confirmed the connection of the Democratic Moldova block and its leader Serafim Urechean with odious figures that are close to the special services of the Russian Federation, the authorities of Pridnestrovye and consequently to the international criminal groups”.
According to the head of Patria Moldova, Andrei Tserne, the “gastarbeiter congress” was not an election move hurriedly invented by the opposition but had been prepared beforehand.
It is hard to say if the attempts to draw Moldavian migrants to the voting on March 6 will be successful. There are more than 200 thousand officially registered Moldavians in Moscow alone, but there will be only one polling place – in the Embassy of Moldavia. So not everybody will be able to vote.
It is obvious that the latest events have made Moldavian authorities nervous. Control over the entrance of foreign citizens to the country has been toughened. In the recent two weeks the republican Interior Ministry has deported 26 people twenty of whom are Russian. Officially they were deported for illegal participation in the election struggle on the side of the Democratic Moldova block. It is of interest that the Moldavian power structures have received a secret instruction: they should leave alone the foreigners who are working for other candidates that are not dangerous for the authorities.
In just one week (February 15–22) the law-enforcement bodies drew up 208 reports on the foreigners who had violated the regime of visiting the country. Eighty-two of them were Russian citizens.
However, for the time being the fate of the “Revolution of the Vine” in Moldavia is unclear. The thing is that the key player of the Revolution of Roses in Georgia and the Revolution of Oranges in the Ukraine – the West – has been quiet. Despite the apparent attempts of president Voronin to draw closer together with Europe he has failed to cease being “a stranger” for the Europeans. As for the candidate supported by Russia, it is unlikely that the West will stake upon him either. The support of the Christian Democrats by the voters yields significantly to the support presently enjoyed by Mikhail Saakashvili in Georgia or Victor Yushchenko in the Ukraine. Thus apparently in the coming elections both Russia and the West will try to shake the positions of the present authorities and the main combat will take place at the time of the next elections.
Vladimir Solovyev, Kishinev; Boris Volkhonsky, Yulia Taratuta
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 28, 2005
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