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Authority's Publicity Rating
Vlast presents another publicity rating of the Russian politicians, officials and businessmen. They are ranked by the frequency of mention by the Russian central mass media. In this issue we sum up the results of the fourth quarter and the whole of 2004. You will learn about the connection between the law of gravity and the officials' careers, you will find out who is more influential – Aleksey Kudrin or Mikhail Fradkov and whether one can predict the political future through “tablemancy”.
The rating of the most frequently mentioned politicians, officials and businessmen (table 1) reveals that in the past quarter the political situation in Russia was very close to the state of stability. According to the definition in encyclopedias, stability is a steady condition of the system, which allows preserving its structure and key qualitative parameters when subject to external and internal actions.
In the recent three months neither the structure nor the qualitative parameters of the balance of forces at the political Olympus has changed. At least nine most frequently mentioned newsmakers of the previous quarter are on the top-10 in October-December 2004 (Alexander Zhukov has made it to the top-10 instead of Mikhail Zurabov). On average Putin's name can still be encountered four times more frequently than the name of Fradkov and five times more often than the name of Luzhkov. In his turn the mayor of the capital is mentioned by journalists four times more often than the governor of St.Petersburg, Valentina Matvienko. Five of the top-10 newsmakers for the past quarter are working in the government (four of them - in the economic block and one - in the power block). The top-10 includes two Russia's presidents (one acting president and one ex-president), one representative of the legislative power, one regional leader and one disgraced oligarch.
However, it would be wrong to say that the past quarter witnessed any serious external and internal action. The main events took place outside the state (not counting the auction on the sale of Yuganskneftegaz). First of all, these were the elections in the USA and the Ukraine. Both events were covered by the Russian mass media so widely that had their key characters participated in our rating George Bush - with his 14,59% - would have found himself in the table of frequency of mention between Boris Yeltsin and German Gref. As for Victor Yanukovich (36,08%) and Victor Yushchenko (38,49%), they would have outstripped Mikhail Fradkov and ranked directly after Vladimir Putin. However, even if they summed up their popularity Bush, Yanukovich and Yushchenko would be unable to compete against the Russian president.
We should mention that since the beginning of 2002 (the time when our rating was first issued) Yuri Luzhkov has been the most public newsmaker after the president and the prime minister. The fourth quarter of 2003 was the only exception: back then it was Mikhail Khodorkovsky that ranked second having pushed Mikhail Kasyanov and Yuri Luzhkov to the third and fourth places accordingly. As for the one that is the No3 person in the state, according to the Constitution, – the speaker of the Federation Council, Sergey Mironov, - he ranks at number 13.
However, one should not be serious about the attempt to associate the publicity of an official with their position in the state hierarchy. For example, the chairman of the supervisory board of the Renaissance Capital company, Alexander Shokhin, called Igor Sechin (deputy head of the presidential administration and chairman of Rosneft's board) the “No2 man” of the state. Whereas according to our publicity rating, Sechin ranked 82 (compare with Shokhin who ranked 76). The analysis of the mass media materials for the last quarter shows that in 75% of cases Igor Sechin was mentioned as a staff of the Kremlin administration and in 63% - as Rosneft's staff. However, it seems as though his activity in the oil company is more productive than in the presidential administration: Sechin's name is mentioned in every 13-th material about Rosneft and only in every 25-th material about the presidential administration.
Speaking of shifts in the top-10 of the quarter's most frequently mentioned newsmakers, it is the ascension of the State Duma's speaker, Boris Gryzlov, that is most noticeable. It is connected with the adoption of the laws on the abolition of governor elections, on the replacement of social benefits with cash and the reform of the official holidays. The change in the rank of the former head of YUKOS, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, also stands out: he shifted from the fourth to the ninth place. This is explained by the fact that the public's interest in the trial of the oligarch is gradually fading away. If in October-December of the last year the words “YUKOS” and “Yuganskneftegaz” were mentioned practically as often as in July-September, the name of Khodorkovsky was mentioned by the central Russian mass media 1,5 times less frequently.
Speaking of other shifts in the frequency of mention table, there is a curious detail. Our rating visually demonstrates the correctness of the law of gravity and rules of career growth: the higher the position an object holds the more difficult it is for the object to mount even higher and the easier it is to fall. We will consider here the newsmakers that were on the top-30 of the most frequently mentioned figures in the third quarter of 2004. Twelve of them managed to rank higher, the position of four has not changed and the position of 16 newsmakers has deteriorated. If the maximum climb demonstrated by Dmitry Kozak was 12 ranks, Gennady Zyuganov for example has moved down 13 ranks (from 12 to 25), Igor Levitin –17 (from 19 to 36), Alu Alkhanov - 18 (from 14 to 32), Vladimir Ustinov – 30 (from 16 to 46), Alexander Dzasokhov – 37 (from 18 to 55).
We publish the list of the 50 most frequently mentioned newsmakers.
| Absolute Indices of the President (the Sum for the Quarter) |
| Frequency of Mention |
Headlines |
Frequency of Citation |
Money |
Next to P |
| 9539 |
4208 |
1787 |
933 |
9539 |
Total Number of Materials in Mass Media 93 830 |
| Leaders of Growth |
| Category |
Figure |
Progress* |
| Frequency of Mention |
Gryzlov Boris (4) |
5,90 |
| Headlines |
Gryzlov Boris (4) |
3,37 |
| Frequency of Citation |
Fetisov Vyacheslav (19) |
4,95 |
| Money |
Zhukov Alexander (8) |
11,23 |
| Next to P |
Gryzlov Boris (4) |
1,74 |
*The change of indicator as compared to the previous quarter (% points). In parentheses after the name – rank by frequency of mention.
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| Leaders of Failure |
| Category |
Figure |
Regress* |
| Frequency of Mention |
Khodorkovsky Mikhail (9) |
-5,46 |
| Headlines |
Khodorkovsky Mikhail (9) |
-7,85 |
| Frequency of Citation |
Fradkov Mikhail (2) |
-15,18 |
| Money |
Khodorkovsky Mikhail (9) |
-16,83 |
| Next to P |
Fradkov Mikhail (2) |
-2,11 |
*The change of indicator as compared to the previous quarter (% points). In parentheses after the name – rank by frequency of mention. |
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The Headlines People
It is to his son-in-law that the president of Karachaevo-Cherkessia, Mustafa Batdyev, owes his rank in the Headlines People rating (4).
Summing up the results of the previous quarter we were surprised to register a relatively poor showing demonstrated by the FSS director, Nikolay Patrushev. The tragic events in Beslan should have made super-popular the head of the country's main department in charge of security. However, Nikolay Patrushev remained in the shadow. On the results of July-September 2004 he ranked at No 45 in the Frequency of Mention Table and failed to move higher than the 40-th line in the Headlines People (table 2), Authorities (table 3) and Tycoons (table 4).
Last quarter the FSS director finally “shone”. On October 29, he addressed the State Duma deputies and on December 16 reported on his success at the meeting with the heads of the leading mass media. He just said that more than 500 terrorist acts (200 of them were major ones) had been prevented in 2004 and that the FSS staff had confiscated almost 11 tons of explosives and his name began appearing in newspaper headlines and first lines of radio and TV information reports 2,5 times more often. As a result right away in the Headlines People table Nikolay Patrushev went up by 37 lines and demonstrated a record climb in this category in the quarter. Patrushev's statements had an even greater effect upon the category of Frequency of Citation: in the past three months this indicator increased by 7 times with him. As a result in the category Authorities the FSS director also demonstrated a record growth by moving from rank 46 to 5.
As for the president of Karachaevo-Cherkessia - Mustafa Batdyev, he did not have to say anything to get into the mass media headlines. Last quarter Batdyev was almost toppled because the relatives of the seven people who had been murdered in October at the summer cottage of the president's son-in-law seized the government building and required that the head of the republic should resign. As the results of our rating show, Mustafa Batdyev who remained silent the whole quarter ranked last in the category of Authorities. At the same time he ranked at No 4 in the Headlines People category having left behind his colleagues Yuri Luzhkov, Valentina Matvienko and Boris Gromov.
Speaking of shifts in the Headlines People table, we will emphasize the progress made by Vyacheslav Fetisov (from 45 to 11), Gennady Fadeev (from 36 to 14), Roman Abramovich (from 34 to 16) and Sergey Mironov (from 20 to 6). The fall of Gennady Zyuganov and Mikhail Khodorkovsky also stands out (from 11 to 36 and from 5 to 26, accordingly).
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Authorities
The information on the prevented 500 terrorist acts, which the FSS director Nikolay Patrushev shared, has added significant authority to him.
Nikolay Patrushev has demonstrated a record growth in this category on the results of the quarter: he has shifted from line 46 to line 5. However, he is not the only individual that has fallen into talk. In the past three months Vaycheslav Fetisov, Dmitry Kozak, Rashid Nurgaliev and Victor Khristenko were actively quoted. In the table of Authorities Fetisov moved 15 lines up, Kozak, Nurgaliev and Khristenko – 14 lines.
So what was it that these newsmakers shared? Rashid Nurgaliev and Nikolai Patrushev reported on the results of 2004. The head of the Home Ministry spoke of 200 terrorist acts that had been prevented whereas the FSS director mentioned the figure of 500. It is of interest that in the course of three months Nurgaliev's frequency of citation increased by 1,4 times and Patrushev's index – by 7 times. However, it would be wrong to say that a newsmaker's growth of authority is proportional to the announced by him number of prevented terrorist acts. For example, on December 9, the Commander of the Interior Troops, Nikolay Rogozhkin, who so far does not participate in our rating, spoke of 780 terrorist acts prevented in Russia. However, Rogozhkin's frequency of citation has not increased in the fourth quarter compared to the third one - on the contrary it has gone down almost by 2 times.
Conversations about a possible resignation of the head of the Russian Soccer Union, Vyacheslav Koloskov, boosted Vyacheslav Fetisov's frequency of citation by 3,3 times last quarter. The increase of Dmitry Kozak's index in this category (by 2,6 times) is determined by his discourse on the need to introduce order in the North Caucasus. Victor Khristenko's frequency of citation has gone up by 2,4 times at the expense of his statements on the reform of RAO UES and the sale of assets of the YUKOS oil company.
The majority of the members of the economic block in the government and the State Duma deputies who have made it into the top-50 of the most frequently mentioned participants of our rating preferred to make fewer public statements during the past quarter. We suppose that in the first quarter of 2005 they will have something to share about. Firstly, the economic results of the year will be summed up, secondly, already now the problems connected with the replacement of social benefits with cash are actively discussed.
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Tycoons
The head of the Federal Agency for Culture and Film, Mikhail Shvydkoy, became a tycoon thanks to the lack of money
The Tycoon nomination reveals the newsmakers whose names appear in mass media materials in the context of sums of money. Traditionally it is members of the government and oligarchs that rank the first in the rating of the most well-to-do officials and businessmen. In 2004, there was an obvious superiority of the representatives of the state. Thus, in the first quarter of 2004, there were two members of the government (Aleksey Kudrin and Alexander Pochinok) and four oligarchs (Roman Abramovich, Boris Berezovsky, Vladimir Potanin and Mikhail Khodorkovsky) in the top-10 of Tycoons. On the results of the latest quarter there is an inverse ratio – there are already 6 officials and 3 oligarchs in the top-10.
No wonder: one should not forget about the concept of consolidating the state power with the purpose of doubling the GDP. In the fourth quarter the frequency of mention of the phrase “power vertical” in the context of money increased as compared to the first one – by four times.
However, for the time being unlike the oligarchs the officials readily complain about the absence of money. Often it is this that explains their success in the Tycoons rating.
For example, in the past quarter the head of the Federal Agency for Culture and Film, Mikhail Shvydkoy, demonstrated a record climb in the Tycoons Table moving up 23 lines: from 36 to 13. In reality on December 17 summing up the results of the year and sharing the plans for the future Mikhail Shvydkoy simply complained about the cuts in the financing. Thanks to the phrase mentioned below that was widely cited by mass media Shvydkoy outstripped Anatoly Chubais, Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Aleksey Miller in this category: “During the years of empty pockets we learned to make normal cultural life even with that money”.
We will mention the progress in the Tycoons table made by Victor Khristenko (moved up from line 37 to line 16), Andrei Fursenko (from 26 to 9), Aleksey Miller (from 38 to 23) and Sergey Ivanov (from 29 to 17). The fall of Alu Alkhanov (from line 10 to line 28), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (from 19 to 35) and Dmitry Rogozin (from 23 to 38) deserves special attention.
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The Courtiers
When appointed the presidential representative in the Southern Federal District, Dmitry Kozak withdrew from the president and shifted from the third to the thirty-first place.
The rating of those who are in the circle of the head of the state (table 5) makes it possible to predict the political future of officials and businessmen. One should compare the Courtiers with the Headlines People for this purpose.
As one can tell from these tables the newsmakers that have already passed the peak of their career do not rank high in the Headlines People rating. Nevertheless they do rank in the first half of the Courtiers rating. The brightest examples of the kind are Boris Yeltsin (ranks 49 in the Headline People table and as No 5 in the Courtiers table), Mikhail Gorbachev (ranks as No 46 and No 10 accordingly), Evgeny Primakov (No 39 and No 11) and Victor Chernomyrdin (No 47 and No 7).
Mikhail Kasyanov (No 42 and No 8), Boris Berezovsky (No 43 and No 12), Gennady Zyuganov (No 36 and No 9) and Boris Nemtsov (No 50 and No 3) also prove this tendency. The showing of the staff of the presidential administration is an exception – traditionally they rank low in the Headlines People rating and high in the Courtiers rating.
At the same time the politicians that are on the rise at present withdraw from the president in the information context and become independent newsmakers. As a result in the Headlines People rating they hold stronger positions than in the Courtiers rating. Such are for example Mikhail Zurabov (ranks as No 15 in the Headlines People and as No 25 in the Courtiers), Sergey Ivanov (No 3 and No 16 accordingly), Dmitry Kozak (No 18 and No 31), Mikhail Fradkov (No 5 and No 36) and Vladimir Ustinov (No 12 and No 42). Those newsmakers whose positions in both tables are approximately equal (for example, Boris Gryzlov, Alexy II, Aleksey Miller) can be referred to the group of stability.
If one follows the rules of this peculiar political “tablemancy” we could say that our tables predict the coming career decline of Valentina Matvienko, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Andrei Illarionov, German Gref and Mintimer Shaimiev. They all rank lower in the Headlines People rating than in the Courtiers rating. Besides the showing of Vladimir Putin who can so far be referred to the stability group (ranks second in the Headlines People and first in the Courtiers) means that he has already passed the equator of his presidency. However, one should not forget that it is impossible to scientifically evaluate the error of the predictions based on tablemancy.
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Summing Up: Kudrin instead of Fradkov
Minister of Finance Aleksey Kudrin ranked as No 2 thanks to the fact that he lost less than Mikhail Fradkov in the rating.
Summing up the results of the third quarter of 2004 we mentioned that the positions held by Mikhail Fradkov and Aleksey Kudrin were very close. We will remind the reader that back then the prime minister's showing in the rating was 1020 and that of the Minister of Finance – 971. In the past quarter Kudrin took Fradkov's place, which is quite unusual. Throughout the whole time of the publicity rating (since the beginning of 2002) it was only twice that the prime minister yielded his second place: in the fourth quarter of 2003 - to Mikhail Khodorkovsky and in the second quarter of 2004 - to Alexander Veshnyakov. Both “failures” of the premier could be predicted because they were determined by outstanding events – the arrest of Russia's wealthiest person and the presidential elections.
This time both Kudrin and Fradkov have lost points in the rating. The premier lost more. Of course it would be wrong to jump to the conclusion on the basis of our rating that in the near future the government would resign (though the situation does remind of 2003 when in the very same way Kudrin was at the back of the pack and in the fourth quarter premier Kasyanov ranked third). However, such weak positions of Mikhail Fradkov in the Russian mass media are at least surprising.
We should also mention that gradually mass media is losing interest in terrorism. If after Beslan the word “terror” could be encountered in various forms in 31% of the publications of the central press and news reports of the main TV channels and radio stations, last quarter this indicator went down to 9,3%. Compare: during the same period of time the word “Ukraine” could be encountered in 10% of materials in mass media.
There is no doubt that the mass protest of pensioners brought about by the replacement of social benefits with cash and the expected appointment of governors will for sure introduce significant changes into the present balance of forces at the political Olympus. In three months we will find out about the changes in the rating as a result of the coming events.
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The Year of Economy
Together with the past quarter Vlast sums up the general results for 2004. Our rating vividly demonstrates that economy remains the main problem of the country. If they insistently recommend that the question of doubling the GDP should be solved in ten years the number of members of the economic block of the government has already doubled in the top-ten of the rating.
The Year of Economy
On studying the list of 100 most popular politicians, officials and businessmen of 2004 one can see that the representatives of the economic block of the government have essentially consolidated their positions in the rating. On the results of 2003 apart from prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov only Minister of Finance Aleksey Kudrin managed to make it into our rating's top-10.
And now Mikhail Zurabov, German Gref and Alexander Zhukov are in close vicinity to the new premier, Mikhail Fradkov, and the permanent head of the Ministry of Finance. Thus on the results of the year the share of members of the government's economic block in the rating's top-10 has increased from two to five people, i.e. by 2,5 times.
Summing up the results of 2003 we predicted a gradual increase of Mikhail Khodorkovsky's rating in 2004 as well. Partially this did come true – in the first, second and third quarters the rating of the disgraced oligarch did consistently increase. However, in the fourth quarter it fell almost by three times. It turned out that the society was mainly interested in the fate of the assets of YUKOS and after the auction on the sale of Yuganskneftegaz the interest in Khodorkovsky's trial noticeably decreased.
The past year was a turning point for Aleksey Miller. If in 2003 his rating kept falling with every quarter, in 2004 the dynamics was absolutely different.
The position of Alexander Zhukov significantly improved as well (he moved up 46 lines) – so did the position of Igor Sechin, Dmitry Medvedev (moved up 41 lines) and Dmitry Kozak (a 24-line progress). Judging by the dynamics of the rating index Dmitry Kozak stands a chance of continuing with this increase this year.
As for Gennady Troshev (moved down 82 lines), Murtaza Rakhimov (moved down 80 lines), Victor Kazantsev (62 lines) and Sergey Yastrzhembsky (58) – they must be dissatisfied with the results of the year. To all appearances in the near future the participants of the fall-group will be unable to make it back to the top. Sergey Shoigu is the only exception – every once in a while the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations has a chance to demonstrate his worth.
The appointment of the regional leaders by Vladimir Putin will become one of the most interesting political events of 2005. At the same time all the acting governors are trying to enlist the president's support. According to the results of 2004, the top-5 of “the most public” governors looks as follows: Yuri Luzhkov, Roman Abramovich, Alu Alkhanov, Valentina Matvienko and Boris Gromov. The near future will show if there will appear any new figures in this circle and how high they will rank.
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| The Increase Group (Rating by the Quarter) | | Figure | I Quarter | II Quarter | III Quarter | IV Quarter | Kozak Dmitry
| 67 | 81 | 88 | 129 | Miller Aleksey
| 62 | 69 | 100 | 121 | Fursenko Andrei
| 20 | 95 | 163 | 174 | | Shamanov Vladimir | 3 | 5 | 15 | 16 |
| The Fall Group (Rating by the Quarter) | | Figure | I Quarter | II Quarter | III Quarter | IV Quarter |
Voloshin Alexander
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11 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
Gaidar Egor
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51 |
17 |
13 |
10 |
Kasyanov Mikhail
| 648 | 88 | 46 | 30 | Klebanov Ilya
| 11 | 7 | 5 | 4 | Krasheninnikov Pavel
| 21 | 11 | 8 | 7 | Lukin Vladimir
| 23 | 13 | 10 | 10 | Potanin Vladimir
| 82 | 44 | 40 | 13 | Rumyantsev Alexander
| 16 | 10 | 7 | 7 | Stepashin Sergey
| 289 | 136 | 111 | 54 | Fedorov Nikolay
| 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | Kharitonov Sergey
| 282 | 14 | 9 | 5 | | Shoigu Sergey | 146 | 75 | 68 | 42 |
The increase and the fall groups have been compiled on the basis of newsmakers' rating by the quarter in the course of 2004. Both groups include the newsmakers whose rating by the quarter did not go lower than 3 in the course of the year. The increase group unites the newsmakers whose rating consistently increased with every quarter. The fall group unites the newsmakers whose rating consistently decreased with every quarter (Alexander Voloshin, Vladimir Lukin and Alexander Rumyantsev are an exception – their rating did not change in one quarter).
All the Article in Russian as of Jan. 24, 2005
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Photo: Yury Martyanov
