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Inflation was 12.5 percent in Russia from January through November vs. 10.6 percent a year earlier, the countrys statistics authority Rosstat announced December 5.
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Dec. 08, 2008
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Inflation Pressure Goes Dn On Future Expectations
The inflation was 12.5 percent in Russia from January through November vs. 10.6 percent a year earlier, the countrys statistics authority Rosstat announced December 5. Consumer prices increased 0.8 percent in November vs. 0.9 percent in October. The daily average pace slowed down to 0.0281 percent vs. 0.041 percent in November of 2007. Food prices rose 1.3 percent (15.3 percent from early this year), while nonfoods climbed 0.5 percent (7.8 percent). The prices for paid-up services of the population grew 0.7 percent in November and 14.8 percent from early this year. In annual terms, the inflation slowed down from 14.2 percent in October to 13.8 percent in November.
In line with peculiarities of Russias budget system, most of the government costs are made closer to the end of the year. The accelerated spending of budgetary overhand is the traditional inflation booster here. But the situation differs this year.

The RF Finance Ministry, for instance, was to spend 2.2 trillion rubles in November and December, although its spending stood at roughly 600 billion rubles in the previous ten months. But in the ministry, they are in no mood to spend the money at large, having preferred to lay it aside for the bailout actions of 2009.

The crediting and money compression that was provoked by the global financial collapse could be viewed as another factor to contain the pace of consumer prices in November of 2008. The money supply (M2) growth slowed down to 18.4 percent as of November 1, 2008 vs. 25 percent in September of 2008, the CBR reported, specifying that it apprehends the annual growth of 28 percent this year vs. 47.5 percent posted in 2007.

The basic, or monetary, inflation that excludes the influence of seasonal factor and administrative management lowered to 1.1 percent (12.7 percent from early this year) vs. 1.3 percent in October.

But the fall reduction in money supply growth will affect the inflation with the lag of three to six months, i.e. no sooner than in the first quarter of 2009. So, the government has no grounds to forecast the rapid inflation decline but may contain the inflation within a digit number in 2009.

The inflation will probably slow down to 8 percent in 2009, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin forecasted despite the absence of outlook of Economic Development Ministry. At the same time, this years inflation is to remain within 13 percent, according to the CBR; the indicator will be the maximum of the latest five years.

All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 08, 2008

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