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Political Maneuvers
// Russian-Venezuelan naval exercises wrap up
The active phase of Venrus 2008, the joint Russian-Venezuelan naval exercises, was concluded yesterday in the Caribbean Sea. Sixteen ships of various classes took part in it. The political goal of the exercises was to show the United States that it is not alone in the Atlantic Ocean any more, and it can be considered reached. But evaluations of the military component of the exercises differ radically.
The exercises were held about 100 miles off the coast of Venezuela. From Russia came the heavy nuclear missile cruiser Petr Veliky, the large antisubmarine vessel Admiral Chabanenko, the tanker Ivan Bubnov, an SB-406 rescue tug and 1600 marines. Venezuela was represented by 12 warships: the F-21 Mariscal Sucre, F-22 Almirante Brion and F-24 General Soublette frigates, a tank landing ship and eight patrol ships, as well as a squadron of Su-30MK2V’s and 700 marines.
According to Capt. Igor Dygalo, aide to the chief commander of the Russian Navy, all the tasks set for the exercise were completed successfully. They worked out joint tactical ship maneuvers, made tours of inspection, rescued a vessel in an emergency and refueled in the process. The main task of the joint naval group was resisting air attack using antiaircraft weaponry.
Many experts doubts the stated goals and the effectiveness of the exercises, however. Retired vice admiral Vladimir Komoedov, a member of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee and former commander of the Black Sea Fleet, told Kommersant that “The task of naval forces is to attack and resist attacks. Why were there inspection and rescue operations using a heavy missile cruiser and an antisubmarine ship? It was a senseless expense.” Komoedov said Venrus 2008 would be a truly effective maneuver if the size of the Russian group were at least doubled and included versatile atomic submarines, if joint artillery and missile launches were held and ships were reconfigured for military use. The aviation element would also have to be expanded, Komoedov said.
Naval expert Vladimir Shchebakov told Kommersant that a group in which only the Petr Veliky had real military capacity (20 launchers for Granit anti-ship missiles) cannot successfully ward off a naval attack by a “likely opponent.” A U.S. aircraft carrier strike force usually consists of 2-4 aircraft carriers, 2-4 cruisers, up to 24 frigates with missiles and traditional weapons and one or two nuclear submarines. Each aircraft carrier will have up to 90 planes, of which no less than 50 will be Hornet fighters. “Therefore, even the makeup of the joint Russian-Venezuelan group should sooner be seen as a means of realizing a political goal and not military goals,” he concluded.
The one military task that was successfully completed, experts say, was the appearance of Russian ships from the Northern Fleet in the Caribbean Sea. “That was quite a valuable event for the Russian Navy, for which group maneuvers with foreign navies has become an extremely rare phenomenon in the post-Soviet period,” commented Mikhail Barabanov, editor-in-chief of Moscow Defense Brief. “In addition, our fleet showed its abilities overseas for the first time in many years.” It can be added that it was the first such mission for the Petr Veliky.
Ivan Konovalov
Chavez Will Run Again
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez called on his advisors in the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela to make all the necessary preparations to hold a referendum in January on a constitutional amendment to remove the two-term restriction on the president. “If we plan to do it, then let’s do it soon! No ‘tomorrows,’ there is only ‘right now,’” Chavez urged his party members, saying that the voting procedure “could be prepared in December.” Before the initiative is brought before the country’s central elections committee, the approval of 30 percent of the members of the national assembly (where the United Socialist Party has a majority) and the signatures of 15 percent of the voters are needed.
Party representatives began speaking of attaining a new term for Chavez in July, saying “for the peace, calm and development of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez should remain president.” Under the current Venezuelan Constitution, the president can serve only two six-year terms. Chavez was first elected in 1998 and was reelected in 2000, when a new constitution was passed. The removal of the restriction on the number of presidential terms was among the 69 constitutional amendments Venezuelan authorities brought before a general referendum in December of last year. Fifty-one percent of voters opposed the measures in Chavez’s first defeat in his ten years in power. In spite of that setback, the president’s expectation of success in understandable.
“Many of those who voted in 2007 were supporters of Chavez, and they remain supporters of Chavez. The problem was not him, but the reforms, which were prepared too hastily, without public discussion, and with a lot of defects,” Oleg Yasinsky, an expert on Latin American socialism living in Chile, told Kommersant. Chavez currently has an approval rating of 60-70 percent.
Vyacheslav Leonov
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 03, 2008
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