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The Waning GDP
Russia’s GDP stepped up 5.9 percent in October of 2008, the RF Economic Development Ministry concluded in the monitoring report for January through October. But with no seasonal factor taken into account, the GDP narrowed by 0.4 percent past month, and the industrial output went down by 2.4 percent. With the oil price of $50 a barrel, the GDP is officially estimated to gain roughly 3 percent in 2009. The analysts, however, speculate that the government will be able to ensure such growth provided its bailout spending prove absolutely efficient and a barrel of oil costs at least $60.
The monthly monitoring report that the RF Economic Development Ministry released yesterday estimates the GDP growth at 5.9 percent in October. The indicator was 9.3 percent a year earlier, so the rates are nearly half as fast now. The GDP stepped up 7.5 percent in January through October of 2008 vs. 7.8 percent in January through October of 2007.
The Economic Development Ministry is the only division of government that assesses the monthly growth of GDP. Under its estimate and with no seasonal factor taken into account, the GDP lowered by 0.4 percent on year in October of 2008 for the first time in the recent decade.
Similar to Russian statistics authority Rosstat, the subordinates of Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina estimate the slowdown of industrial pace at 0.6 percent in October. But less the seasonal factor, the industrial output lost 2.4 percent that month.
Exactly the slowdown of industrial growth in processing industries (3.4 percent in October of 2008 less the seasonal factor) was the key reason of GDP’s slowdown, people in the Economic Development Ministry say. Amid the branches that suffered from reduction are metallurgy, chemical industry, production of electric equipment, electric and optical devices, production of construction materials.
“The estimate of the Economic Development Ministry isn’t surprising. There is almost nothing to grow. Less the seasonal factor and given that there were fewer working days in October, the industry fell 2.5 percent,” concluded Tatiana Orlova from ING Russia.
The Economic Development Ministry will present the adjusted macroeconomic outlook for 2008 through 2011 in late November. In the yesterday’s report, it estimated the 2008 inflation at 13.4 percent to 13.5 percent and the GDP growth at 6.8 percent.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 25, 2008
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