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Nov. 24, 2008
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Nino Burjanadze Ready to Substitute for Mikhail Saakashvili
// Georgian former parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze challenges Mikhail Saakashvili
Nino Burjanadze challenges Mikhail Saakashvili
Yesterday was a momentous day for Georgia: former parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze held her new opposition party’s congress against the background of modest celebrations of the rose revolution’s anniversary. It means that the countdown to her confrontation with President Mikhail Saakashvili has begun. Kommersant found how high Nino Burjanadze’s chances to become President are.
War as defeat

Despite the tradition to mark the rose revolution’s anniversaries with a great pomp, which was introduced by President Saakashvili, Georgia didn’t hold grand celebrations this time. Explaining the demonstrative lack of splendor, the Government referred to the August tragic events. You could see war remembrance elements in everything the President and the cultural community members, who took part in state-organized rallies, did on that day. In the morning the leaders of the pro-presidential National Movement laid wreaths at the tombs of soldiers who were killed in South Ossetia; famous artists, including singer Vakhtang Kikabidze, attended refugee camps and gave people presents.

The day before Mikhail Saakashvili, who had just returned from Kiev, where he had participated in the Holodomor remembrance week, delivered a TV address to the nation declaring November 23 the Solidarity Day. He said that Georgia’s people show solidarity with refugees from South Ossetia and families that lost breadwinners as a result of hostilities. Obviously, solidarity with society was the reason for the President’s declaring the broadest amnesty in his time in office: yesterday some 2,000 convicts who were sent to prison for minor offences were released. In total, the amnesty, which suggests cutting sentences as well as expunging criminal records and paroles, relates to 10,000 convicts, which is a half of Georgia’s convicts, who are either in prison or under examination.

Opposition regards the President’s gesture as having political motives. “The Government understands that convicts’ families and relatives are the most proactive community participating in all mass protest actions in Tbilisi,” independent political analyst Murman Kuprashvili told Kommersant. “It is now important for Saakashvili to defuse tensions in society, so he will try his best to win over this group.”

Demonstrating society his readiness to compromise, the President went on using anti-Russian rhetoric. He stated that the revolution goes on “despite the fact that Georgia was attacked by the world’s major aggressor.” The President compared Georgia with his favorite folklore hero Amiran (similar to Greek Prometheus), who was chained to the Caucasus Ridge. “At the last moment, when he was about to get free from fetters, a raven came flying and chained the hero to the cliff anew,” the President seemed to get carried away by his story. “But it was the last time the raven came flying. These are the evil empire’s last vain attempts to prevent Georgia from becoming free. The empire is doing worse.”

According to the President, the situation in Georgia is improving because the rose revolution inspires the Georgian people. “The rose revolution put an end to pension arrears practices, resolved energy supply problems and defeated corruption, which had undermined the state,” Georgia’s President stated. “This is why we were attacked. Our achievements and the fact that Georgia established itself as a sovereign state prompted Russia’s aggression. But we will continue addressing social problems, ensuring jobs and eradicating poverty.”

In conclusion Mr Saakashvili called on people to be tolerant and united, since “the Russian aggression has deteriorated and complicated the prospect of restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity, inflicting considerable losses on its economy.” This statement can be referred to as the only mention of restoring territorial integrity in the President’s speech.

War as victory

Nevertheless, this topic was highlighted by the President’s former supporter Nino Burjanadze, who now heads the Democratic Movement – United Georgia opposition party. Yesterday, chairing the first congress of the party she created not long ago, Ms Burjanadze made her demands public for the first time, confirming experts’ assumptions that she will run for president.

In her interviews with Georgian media, Nino Burjanadze made no secret of the fact that it was the August war that fostered her party’s creation. But a lot of her former colleagues doubt it. “Nino Burjanadze is very ambitious; she would never put up with the role of an informal leader of human rights activists,” a Georgian MP told Kommersant. “She needed a pretext to legalize her political ambitions, and she got it when the war broke out; her “43 questions to Saakashvili” drew the widest response in society.” Ms Burjanadze doesn’t accuse President Saakashvili of unleashing the war. Rather, she blames him for conducting hostilities unskillfully, with the military operation’s launch having been untimely. However, according to Ms Burjanadze, the main reason for promptly founding the party is the crisis, Georgia found itself in because of the Government’s policy, and the necessity to hold early elections in spring already.

The Democratic Movement – United Georgia party’s congress, which was held in the Basketball Palace yesterday, resembled the pro-presidential National Movement’s congresses, where Ms Burjanadze used to take an active part. The former Speaker and her team must have thoroughly prepared for the meeting: the palace was decorated with blue (the party’s color), and its motto “Democracy today!” arrested the attention of everyone who entered the hall. All delegates and guests were given folders with documents, including application forms to join the party, as well as the party’s charter, which reads that its founders consider restoring territorial integrity and Euro-Atlantic integration Georgia’s priorities.

In her opening address, Ms Burjanadze asked to remember those who fell in the August war with a minute of silence. Then she made a caustic remark that “despite the lost war, the Georgian Government tries to save face and is unwilling to resign.” “We lost the war; our territories are occupied; thousands people, both Georgians and Ossetians became refugees,” Ms Burjanadze said, “But the Government boasts that it builds camps for them!” The new opposition leader pledged that she will not allow “Georgia’s dismemberment” and that her party will make the Government “resign peacefully and democratically, after elections.”

Ms Burjanadze did not specify which tools she will use to press for power transition. But delegates said in the lobby that in the near future Tbilisi will become the venue for “peaceful protest actions,” whose participants will demand to call early elections and create a democratic environment to hold them, including via “the liberation of the media.”

War as precursor of change

No one in Georgia can give a definite answer whether Ms Burjanadze is able to unite the country’s opposition to challenge Mikhail Saakashvili. Leader of The New Right opposition party David Gamkrelidze thinks that it is too early to speak about Nino Burjanadze’s influence, “First she should establish her party and determine her goals.” Georgian opposition activists often accuse Ms Burjanadze of siding with Mikhail Saakashvili on November 7, 2007, when authorities used truncheons and gas to disperse a rally in Rustaveli Avenue. “She was Saakashvili’s adherent too long to change overnight,” members of the Republican Party believe.

“Opposition leaders regard Nino Burjanadze as a strong rival,” independent expert David Avalishvili told Kommersant. “They are not going to help her become more influential by paying too much attention to her party.”

The intelligentsia has been biding their time: they were absent at the congress of Nino Burjanadze’s party, which did not prevent her from stating that they were present nonetheless. However, the absence of the artistic community was offset with a vengeance with the presence of the U.S. and British Ambassadors and representatives of several international organizations. It confirmed the rumor that the West is searching for an alternative for Mikhail Saakashvili.

Ahead of setting up her party, Ms Burjanadze visited Europe and the U.S. A few Georgian experts opine that the West sent her a clear message: Georgia is located in the zone of the West’s energy interest, and it cannot allow the country to be governed by a leader who may jeopardize the region’s security. This might be the reason for Ms Burjanadze’s stepping up her political activity.
Georgy Dvali, Tbilisi; Olga Kirillovak

All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 24, 2008

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