A Lot to Talk About with Somebody
// The price of the question
The second round of the Geneva talks on South Ossetia and Abkhazia give no cause for even cautious optimism at first glance. The basic differences between Russia and Georgia are too obvious. The situation is especially difficult because it will not change in its essence, even if radical changes occur in the highest leadership in Georgia. No matter who replaces Mikheil Saakashvili as president of Georgia, he will not choose a course toward reconciliation with Russia, and Moscow should have no illusions about that. Even Igor Giorgadze’s marionette party is in favor of Georgia’s territorial integrity. But it is also illusory to hope that Moscow will reverse its recognition of the two former Georgian autonomies.
The question logically arises about the expediency of continuing the Geneva talks. It should be understood what problems can be solved in their third, fourth or 25th rounds.
Leaving emotions aside, it is clear that, besides the legal status of the “rebel” republics, there is a problem with violence to be solved in two hot spots. I am referring to terrorist and partisan activities in the Gali District of Abkhazia and the Leningori District of South Ossetia. And the Moscow declaration on Nagorny Karabakh, made at the beginning of the month and stating the principle that every conflict should be settled exclusively through political means, without the use of violence, will get nowhere without the final determination of the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
That is what Moscow has been seeking from Tbilisi for the last four years. The Geneva talks give it the opportunity to attain its goals with the help of Western intermediaries.
The second issue is the presence of international monitors in and around the conflict zones. After the August war in the Caucasus, the internationalization of the two conflicts became a reality. It is important for Moscow to see to it that the format of the international presence, even though it is not in Moscow’s interests, is in a format beneficial to it, since it cannot be avoided. Possible benefits for Moscow from the Geneva talks may be the initiation of strategic talks not with Georgia, but with the European Union.
Finally, participation by representatives of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the talks, even if they have the status only of experts, is already partial international legitimization – if not as separate states, at least as political units whose participation is necessary of a settlement is to be reached. Discussion of the status of Kosovo started similarly. Pristina was not built in a day.
Thus, Moscow has the opportunity to talk tete-a-tete with Europe in Geneva on a wide range of issues of Caucasian security without engaging in empty squabbles with Georgia. There is practically nothing to talk with Tbilisi about today any way.
Sergey Markedonov, head of the department of international relations, Institute for Political and Military Analysis
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 18, 2008
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Photo: Vasily Shaposhnikov
