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After Russia's military appear in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the two republics will have to abandon their dreams of independence (a Russian outpost, the river of Inguri).
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Oct. 21, 2008
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Convoy to Follow Recognition
// Russia’s FSB border guard to appear at the Abkhaz and South Ossetian borders
Kommersant found out that Russia’s FSB border guard will defend the Abkhaz and South Ossetian borders. Representatives of the Interior Ministry told Kommersant that corresponding agreements will be signed with Tskhinvali and Sukhumi as soon as the State Duma ratifies the Treaties on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance with the two Caucasian republics – yesterday drafts were introduced by President Dmitry Medvedev. Russian border guards as well as Abkhaz and South Ossetian military are planned to be allocated at the perimeter of these republics’ borders. Representatives of the Georgian Foreign Office told Kommersant that they will consider means of responding to that step as soon as Moscow’s “imperialist plan” is fulfilled.
This week the Russian government is going to complete processing all necessary documents to formalize neighborly relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russia has recently recognized. Yesterday President Dmitry Medvedev introduced the Treaties on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance with the two Caucasian republics into the State Duma for ratification, suggesting that the MPs should consider this matter as soon as they can. According to the Kremlin press service, Mr Medvedev’s request is explained with “the treaties’ being of vital political importance”.

Judging from the documents’ wording, which is completely the same in both documents (see the Presidential Administration’s web-site www.kremlin.ru), they are regarded as highly important due to a bright outlook for military cooperation. For example, the two treaties stipulate that “to ensure the security of the Contracting Parties, as well as peace and stability in the South Caucasus, either Party will give the other Party’s armed forces the right to construct, use and modernize the military infrastructure and military bases on its territory”. It is obvious that neither Tskhinvali nor Sukhumi is likely to consider deploying their military bases on the Russian territory. But in early September Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov reported to President Dmitry Medvedev that the matter of deploying 3800 Russian soldiers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia has been coordinated with the leaders of the two republics.

Meanwhile, Kommersant found out that Moscow is going to take advantage of another opportunity provided in the friendship treaties with Tskhinvali and Sukhumi. Namely, it is going to take control of the Abkhaz and South Ossetian borders, including the Georgia-patrolled sectors. The mechanism of this sort of cooperation is described in Article 7 of the two treaties, which reads that guarding the borders of the two republics “will be implemented by the two Contracting Parties basing on their security interests as well as peace and stability in the South Caucasus”. That article also specifies that separate agreements for border guarding issues should be concluded. Representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry told Kommersant that they will be signed after the Duma ratifies the friendship treaties.

“We are planning to conclude such agreements with both Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” Andrei Kelin from the Foreign Ministry’s CIS Affairs Department told Kommersant yesterday. “The scheme resembles the one we once applied with Armenia. Guarding borders will suggest mutual financing and mutual border guarding.” According to the diplomat, since neither Abkhaz nor South Ossetian military have any experience of border guarding, Russia will help create such military units in the republics. In case Tskhinvali and Sukhumi some day state that they do not want Russian military to guard their borders any longer, the latter will leave, Mr Kelin promised.

So far both Abkhazia and South Ossetia are looking forward to the Russian State Duma’s ratifying the friendship agreements (which the two republics’ Parliaments did on September 24 and October 2, respectively). Sukhumi and Tskhinvali are ready to welcome Russian border guards “They will cement our states’ security, I believe,” Abkhaz Deputy Defense Minister Gari Kupalba told Kommersant. “We negotiated a lot for it with Russia. We rely on it as a guarantor of our security. After the Duma ratifies the treaty, we will conclude military agreements with Moscow, where the mechanism of ensuring security will be laid down.”

Tskhinvali also confirmed the information about drafting military agreements with Russia. “As things stand now, the border will be guarded by Russians. This necessity existed even prior to the Georgian aggression. International monitors prove good-for-nothing. Evidently, our border needs fortifying,” South Ossetia’s press and information committee head Irina Gagloyeva told Kommersant. According to her, without Russian military’s help, Tskhinvali will have difficulty defending its borders; and Moscow has sent a clear message that is can provide aid. However, Chief of South Ossetia’s KGB Boris Atoyev told Kommersant that “the process may take much time”; he was unable to name the date of Russian military’s appearing in his republic.

Anyway, the Russian State Duma has already expressed readiness to try its best to allow the executive power cooperate more closely with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. “Maybe the treaties will be ratified on Friday,” Deputy Chairman of the State Duma International Affairs Committee Leonid Slutsky presumes. “We will discuss it at our committee on Thursday, and then the parties will discuss it too. Apparently, there is going to be no disagreement over the issue. It is a critical matter to Russia, so everything might be processed promptly.”

At the same time Tbilisi promised to respond to Moscow’s steps as soon as Russian border guards appear on the Georgian territory. “We have no secret plans to counter imperialism. But we will consider mechanisms of reacting to it,” Georgia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze told Kommersant. “We have an opportunity to respond reciprocally. The International Criminal Court in the Hague has taken our suit against Russia, after all. After Russian military appear in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, no one will be able to call Russia’s line a peace-keeping mission.”

According to Mr Vashadze, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will have to abandon their dreams of independence after the deployment of Russian troops on their territory. Indeed, Sukhumi and Tskhinvali will find themselves in more isolation because they will have to coordinate all border-related issues with Moscow.

Vladimir Solovyov

All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 21, 2008

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