Anyway, current events may end the consumer boom of over five years, say the analysts of Development Center.
Photo: Grigoriy Sobchenko
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Acceleration with Grave Aftereffects
The September financial turmoil of Russia probably had strong internal roots, signals the regular outlook of Development Center. The analysts draw attention to the surge in credits given to the nation in July and August that was accompanied by savings’ decline and give it as the key reason for this year’s growth of retail.
The actions of government and the CBR aimed at sustaining the nation’s trust in the banking system won’t break the trend but rather make the economy’s landing softer, says the outlook of Development Center released October 1. The outlook compiled in view of July and August statistics shows that September crisis of Russia’s banking system wasn’t much related to the stock market; its first signs appeared a month before the events of September 16 to 18.
According to the analysts, the decelerated increase in the actual income of the population in August didn’t affect the retail. At the same time, credits granted to individuals and non-banking sector stepped up in summer significantly (4.1 percent).
At the same time, saving activities of the nation undermined by inflation surge of past year hadn’t come to a halt by the fall. No more than 5.2 percent of the income reached bank deposits in January through July vs. 6.3 percent a year earlier.
The analysts are very skeptical about potential continuation of investment boom despite all efforts of the governments to refer to the state investments as a substitute for the capital outflow. Russia’s Central and North-West Federal Districts led in investments slowdown in August. There, the investment growth lost 80 percent and the aggregate share of those two regions in the overall investments narrowed from 34 percent to 31 percent.
The scenario of Development Center specifies the end of the credit boom in economy, the transfer from the peak to decline. The global financial crisis, capital outflow and the slump on the stock markets only provoked and aggravated the changes.
Anyway, the current events may end the consumer boom of more than five years. But the government has been staking on continuously high domestic demand of the population to ensure economy’s growth starting from 2004.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 07, 2008
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