Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach will revise the 2008 inflation outlook no sooner than he has the preliminary results.
Photo: Ilya Pitalev
| Other Photos |
 |
|
 |
Inflation Halted at Pre-Crisis Level
Russia’s statistics authority Rosstat released yesterday the final evaluation of September inflation. The given figure is 0.8 percent, i.e. materially above the expectations of analysts. Although the inflation remains at around 15 percent in the annual terms, Economic Development Ministry doesn’t intend to revise the inflation outlook for 2008 through 2010 (12 percent by close of the year). The general unwillingness of economic authorities to adjust the outlook could be attributed to the risk of worldwide deflation. For Russia, however, this factor will hardly work before year-end.
Rosstat confirmed yesterday the official estimate for September inflation. It was 0.8 percent, the 0.6-percent forecast of the economic analysts notwithstanding. Consumer prices surged 10.6 percent from January through September (vs. 7.5 percent a year earlier), and the annual inflation remains at 15 percent.
The accelerated inflation is mostly blamed on the government’s money injected into economy to oppose liquidity turmoil.
The better part of economic analysts upgraded the inflation outlooks for 2008 far back in August, giving from 13.4 percent (Merrill Lynch, Renaissance Capital, ING Russia, HSBC) to 14 percent (World Bank, IMF) in Russia in 2008. “The annual inflation will remain at 15 percent. I see no reasons for decline,” said Evsei Gurvich, who heads the expert economic group.
But the economic leadership of the country appears more optimistic. Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach announced yesterday that his ministry didn’t intend to change the inflation outlook for the year or for the following years. “We have given the outlook, and I hope it won’t require revision,” Klepach said, reiterating that the ministry forecasts this year’s inflation at around 12 percent and is elaborating additional actions to stabilize situation on financial market.
A source with the ministry said they still have enough time to revise the inflation outlook till the year-end. The official outlook for 2007 inflation was revised only in December of 2007.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 07, 2008
|
|
|
