Europe’s New Diplomacy
European monitors started deploying at the perimeter of the security zone Russia mapped out round Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The appearance of the EU police forces in the conflict zone is one of the practical effects of the special role Europe played in the challenging international situation which has recently developed in the Caucasus.
You can hardly overestimate this occasion’s significance for Europe. President Sarkozy’s diplomatic effort – he first managed to substitute for the entire European Union later persuading his EU counterparts to support his line – may be the start of Europe’s turning into a global broker. It is the first time in history that European states act in the capacity as mediators between two super-powers – Russia and the United States.
With Tbilisi’s attack on Tskhinvali and Russia’s reciprocal blow, the previous confrontation of Moscow and Washington has been brought to the local conflicts level. In the current dispute between Russia and the U.S., which is often referred to as a new cold war, Europe should be very careful and pragmatic. The European Union would be satisfied with keeping this confrontation at the farcical level mostly. Moreover, such a state of affairs would be beneficial to it.
First, a mild form of a cold war between the U.S. and Russia secures Europe’s central role in international politics. Second, Europe’s real brokering ability can be effectively applied during debates, rather than a full-scale confrontation. You should bear in mind that in military terms Europe’s value is minimal. Within the fifteen years since the European union announced its aim to create a common foreign and defense policy, there has been no true progress in it.
On the other hand, the EU has accumulated quite a potential of diplomatic mediation. In case the previous cold war repeats with a farcical cold war of the 21st century, the EU’s defense and security policy won’t appear stagy any longer, meeting with voters’ loud applause.
The European global mission will be complicated if the U.S. and Russia escalate the conflict. For example, if Moscow and Washington decide to foster addressing the “Ukrainian matter”, each guided by their own principles. Given that neither U.S. presidential nominees doubts the necessity for Kiev to join NATO, Europe will face a hard choice.
The outcome is actually not that obvious, provided the U.S. diminishing capacity to give Europe anything important as well as demand anything from it. Apparently, it is the first time the choice will hinge on Russia’s prudent policy. Under such circumstances Moscow will be able to take advantage of the great economic interdependency between Russia and Europe. In fact, the time for it to be converted into new political relations is likely to come soon.
Timofei Bordachev, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), the State University Higher School of Economics (HSE)
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 02, 2008
|
