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The Second Time Around
// The price of the question
The present visit by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko to the United States is substantively different from his first, already forgotten, visit in the spring of 2005. At that time, the leader of the Orange Revolution was not only warmly received by U.S. President George W. Bush, he was feted in both Houses of Congress, which is a rarity for foreign leaders. Three and a half years after that visit, when Ukraine was hailed as the “forefront of world democracy,” Yushchenko must be remembering it like a beautiful dream that he will never have again.
The Ukrainian leader is getting a different reception this time. Nonetheless, Yushchenko needs Washington’s support today much more than he did then, at the dawn of his presidency.
A number of factors point to this. When he flew to Tbilisi and stood on the central square alongside Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili at the height of the war, Yushchenko burned the bridges on his relations with Moscow. Thus, his foreign policy is by force more centered on America than before the war. Implementation of his national mobilization scenario implies that Kiev will have a powerful ally that can cover the country with its broad reach. That role falls to the U.S.
Of course, it must be unpleasant to Yushchenko that Bush did not pay as much attention to him as he was counting on this trip. But something else is far more important. In his recent speech in Italy, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney confirmed support for the color revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine and scolded the Europeans for not doing the same. Ukraine and Georgia are mentioned in the same breath by the U.S. presidential candidates as well. That means that the continuing support of the Orange in Ukraine is guaranteed after the elections. Yushchenko has only to convince the American leadership that it is he, not Yulia Tymoshenko, who has thrown her lot in with Moscow, who is the true bearer of the Orange standard that American agreed to support four years ago.
The other factor that makes this visit exceptionally meaningful is the Ukrainian leader’s unenviable position at home. He is an easy target now for other politicians and the butt of jokes, and he will have only one chance to return to his former standing with his nation. That will come if he can present real fruit of integration with the West, which was the main idea of the Orange.
After the events in the Caucasus, Yushchenko can probably not count on Europe any longer. Ukraine’s European Union membership has been consigned to the far future, and U.S. allies in NATO oppose Ukraine’s membership. While Europe is strict and skeptical, bringing up difficult issues and not hurrying to approve Ukrainian democracy, America only wants to hear Yushchenko talk about his devotion to Orange values. But he has had many years’ practice at just that.
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 01, 2008
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