The Next Letter in BRIC
Growth tendencies in Eastern Europe are making it necessary to adjust the forecasts of their roles in the world economy in the next ten years, because several of them were underestimated, say analysts from Goldman Sachs investment bank in a review of the economic growth potential of 12 new members of the European Union. The “new EU,” the analysts say, can be seen as a fifth component of the new economic world that is associated with BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). According to the Goldman Sachs analysts, the combined economy of the 12 countries is comparable to the economies of Brazil and Russia, as is their rate of growth.
The real GDP of the “new EU” will increase four and a half times by 2050, the analysts say, and it will be comparable to the GDPs of Germany, Turkey, Great Britain and Mexico. Previously, the majority of analysts at investment organizations had viewed the “new EU” only as a satellite of the “old EU.” Now Goldman Sachs has shown that, by 2050, judging by current trends, the main economic development indicators of that group of countries will be very close to the European average, and surpass those of “old EU” members such as Portugal and Spain, and a number of “new EU” countries, such as Estonia and Slovenia, will surpass France and Germany in GDP per capita.
The real GDP growth rate in the “new EU” will approach that of the “Old EU” only in 2040. The demographic situation in BRIC and the “new EU” will be comparable only in 2045. The “old” and “new” EU will come to differ in that indicator between 2020 and 2025.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 29, 2008
|
