Georgia War Spills Over to New World
// Russia mobilizes Latin America for war against the U.S.
Since the war in Georgia, Russia has been much more active in Latin America. A Russian delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin completed a visit to Caracas and Havana yesterday. Kommersant has learned that, besides economic cooperation, a major topic during the visit was the development of an alliance between Russia, Venezuela and Cuba. Moscow considers the formation of such a union a worthy response to U.S. activity in the former Soviet Union.
Energetic Visit
This was Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin’s second visit to Latin America in the last two months. He became the head of the intergovernmental commission on cooperation with Cuba in July and, at the beginning of August, traveled there with Secretary of the Security Council Nikolay Patrushev and leading figures in Russian energy (deputy chairman of Gazprom Alexander Medvedev, general director of Surgutneftegaz Vladimir Bodganov, vice president of Rosneft Mikhail Stavsky, Energy Minister Sergey Shmatko). Kommersant has learned that the visit was largely a response to the agreement between Washington and Prague on the placement of U.S. radar in the Czech Republic. The officials were studying the possibility of reclaiming Russian military facilities in Cuba. Havana reacted quite coolly to the idea at that time and the delegation left the Island of Freedom without anything in writing.
The situation has changed since then. The war in the Caucasus and the cooling of relations between Russia and the West have forced Moscow to look harder for partners among the countries that do not have good relations with the United States. Apparently that was what brought Sechin back to Havana. “The Russian leadership has come to understand that partners can be sought far away as well. With the West’s reserved relations with Russia after the war in Georgia, it might find the allies it so needs in Latin America,” Vladimir Davydov, director of the Russian Academy of Science’s Latin American Institute, commented for Kommersant. Nicaragua’s recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is a clear example of such partnership.
Sechin stated that the visit was once again on Russia’s initiative. He said Moscow’s desire to show “support for the Cuban people and its leadership in overcoming the consequences of the recent hurricane” was the motivation for his second visit in a month and a half. Sechin was again received at the highest levels in Havana. He met with deputy chairman of the state council Carlos Lage and Cuban leader Raul Castro. Again no agreements were announced and the nature of the talks was described only fuzzily. Only Roscosmos head Anatoly Perminov was willing to say that “the possibility of Cuba creating its own space center with our help was preliminarily discussed.”
In Venezuela, where the Russians arrived on Tuesday, there were again no new contracts. “Almost everything that was possible to sign on energy was signed during Chavez’ visit to Moscow,” a source in the delegation noted. The major agreements between PDVSA and Russian companies were signed in Moscow in July in the presence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. TNK-BP reached an agreement with PDVSA on the exploration of the Ayacucho 2 bloc in the oil-rich Orinoco Province, LUKOIL reached an agreement on the exploration of the Junin 3 bloc and Gazprom agreed to certifying and estimating the reserves of the fields of the Ayacucho 3 bloc.
Yesterday Sechin announced that the Russian oil companies plan to create their first ever consortium to work in Venezuela. “The idea of creating a consortium to include practically all the major oil companies of Russia came from the companies themselves, which want to work in Venezuela and not just here,” Sechin stated. “Some of the blocs are exceptionally difficult. It is rather hard for one company to bear such expenses and a consortium allows the expenses to be shared. The consortium could work on project in third countries, in the region, and the companies are examining the possibility of partnership with Cuba, which, in my opinion, is not a bad construct.”
Friends in Arms
Kommersant has learned that military-technical cooperation was no less a topic of discussion. Rostekhnologia head Sergey Chemezov, who was also in Caracas, stated that Russia and Venezuela “are holding negotiations on deliveries of air defense system and modern armored vehicles, including the BMP-3.” According to Chemezov, the Venezuelans also expressed interest in the Su-35 airplane, which will complete testing next year and go into mass production in 2010.
Caracas is being offered a choice between the Su-30MK2V and the new Su-35. The enthusiasm of the arms-makers is due to problems in their field. Venezuela has been one of the biggest buyers of Russian arms in recent years, but now negotiations are stalled on many deals that have already been outlined. A well-informed source says that, instead of 12 Il-76 or Il-78 military heavy transport planes, an agreement is being drawn up for Il-76’s and two Il-96’s. Negotiations on two or three Project 636 submarines have bogged down as well. “Venezuela,” the source said, “has expressed the desire to acquire a lot of BMP-3’s, but there have been no negotiations yet, but rather a preliminary exchange of opinions.” One problem is that Caracas wants to buy the equipment on credit, which the Kremlin is extremely wary of. That was discussed while Chavez was in Moscow.
Nonetheless, Moscow is confident that a new contract with Caracas will be signed. “We are assuming that Chavez will place an order for submarines with us, since Venezuela won’t find an alternative,” a defense industry source commented.
Evidence of that is Chavez’ announcement yesterday that he intends to visit Moscow again at the end of the month “in connection with the dynamization of the new world geopolitics.” It will be the Venezuelan leader’s second visit to Russia in three months, a new record in Russian-Venezuelan relations. Sechin stated in response that he will visit Caracas again in October to take part in a high-level intergovernmental commission session. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin appointed him head of the Russian section of that commission last week. “It’s possible that something will be signed in September, when Chavez comes to Russia,” a source familiar with the negotiations said.
Chavez spoke a lot about a different kind of military-technical cooperation in his talks with Sechin, that is, the two Russian Tu-160 strategic bombers that are completing their visit after taking part in training flights over the Caribbean Sea. Col. Chavez thinks the exercises will be a warning to Washington. “Venezuela is not alone! Russian is with us!” he exclaimed when he greeted the Russian pilots. “They are our strategic partners. The Russian Tu-160 bombers on our land are a warning to the empire of the U.S.A.!” Chavez and Sechin also discussed the maneuvers off the shore of Venezuela scheduled for November with a Russian naval squadron headed by the missile cruiser Peter the Great, the flagship of the Northern Fleet.
Asymmetrical Responses
Experts have no doubt that the close contacts between Latin America and Moscow is an attempt by Russia to find allies against the U.S. “These visits and maneuvers can be seen as an asymmetrical response to Washington,” specialist Davydov told Kommersant. “The Kremlin turned toward Latin America long ago. They are very sensitive there to changes in the U.S. They know that the beast is starting to slip and they can let themselves make broader contacts and search for alternatives.”
The growing military ties between Russia and Latin America are of interest beyond Moscow. Beijing derived great satisfaction from the Russian flights over the Caribbean as well. Chavez will visit China on Sunday. That country has long seen Venezuela as a key link in its energy security. In 2006, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Chavez agreed that China would help Venezuela modernize its fleet of oil tankers in order to increase shipments of oil from the Orinoco belt to China. It lobbied for the reconstruction of the Panama Canal through Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing at the same time. The canal is being managed by Hutchison Whampoa, which Li controls, through 2020. The canal will be modernized by 2014 and will be able to accommodate tanker with carrying capacity of up to 300,000 tons.
The only thing that worries Beijing is guaranteeing the security of the canal, without involving the Chinese armed forces. The presence of a Russian squadron in the Caribbean will make that task much easier for the Chinese comrades.
Alexander Gabuev, Alexandra Gritskova, Denis Rebrov
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 18, 2008
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