Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin convinced the Valdai Club that it was no point using a forked stick against the Georgian army.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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“So, Let’s Negotiate for It!”
// Vladimir Putin demonstrated belligerent pacifism
Yesterday during his meeting with western political analysts Prime Minister Vladimir Putin retorted to the accusations of the “disproportionate use of force” in Georgia, and South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity stated that his republic will “certainly join Russia”. Later Mr Kokoity said they misunderstood him, but Kommersant special correspondent Andrey Kolesnikov believes that Mr Kokoity’s statement could be interpreted the only possible way.
Valdai Club members – famous western political analysts and journalists – gathered early in the morning in the Radisson’s conference hall to meet with the Presidents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia first. Apparently, all they managed to discuss in the morning was the perfect fresh lobsters they had had in Rostov-on-Don the day before. In fact, they hardly seemed to understand what ill wind had brought them in this town half-way to Sochi.
The political analysts had visited Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov in Grozny, who disarmed them (both in the literal and figurative sense of the word). They were shown Grozny and the Chechen President’s residence. The sites truly impressed them. Still, they were able to talk about lobsters only.
To meet with the two independent republics’ leaders, the political analysts had to go through metal detectors. Within the two days of the club’s meetings they appeared to have got accustomed to that procedure, and I think they’ll even miss it when they return home.
A good-looking lady in a red coat went through the detector.
“Oh, Helene’s here too!” rejoiced political analyst Andranik Migranyan, who, supposedly, worried where they would refer him to – the East or the West (Andranik Migranyan lives in New York mostly, which prompts him to reflect on his self-identification).
“Helene Carrere D'Encausse is Permanent Secretary of the Institut de France,” Mr Migranyan told me. “When seeing her, you might think that it’s just a likable middle-aged woman. But when she starts talking about her friendship with General de Gaulle… You have to hand it to her.”
Nikolai Zlobin, a distinguished American political analyst, came up to us. He has participated in all Valdai Club forums – he has never missed any, I guess. It is him who told me a year ago in the presidential residence Bocharov Ruchei that he urged Vladimir Putin to give a “warranty” saying that he was not going to run for president for the third consequtive time.
“I was the only person,” Mr Zlobin told me immediately, “who warned the West of Abkhazia’s independence back ten years ago!”
“And what about South Ossetia?” I wondered.
“No, I didn’t say anything of that kind about it,” Nikolai Zlobin laughed. “And I’m not saying anything now. I’m an American expert, after all.”
“Before you wrote it, I published an article “Unbreakable union?” with a question mark in the end,” Andranik Migranyan retorted.
Another political analyst “surmounted” the metal detector.
“Oh,” Mr Zlobin rejoiced, “it’s him! He was the first of us to ask Putin a straightforward question, “Are you going to leave or not?” And Putin answered, “And what should I do, in your opinion?” And he was left speechless!”
“Who?” I wanted to know.
It’s hard to imagine a speechless Putin. He was not caught unawares even as he heard he was to give a warranty.
“The guy out there,” Mr Zlobin pointed to a political analyst of about sixty years old. “That was quite a show…”
“Do we have a chance to see anything similar today?” I asked cautiously. “We expect something of that sort.”
“We need a question,” Nikolai Zlobin answered. “We need to ask Putin a very good question! I know you’ve got one!”
I really had one, but Mr Migranyan noted wisely that it would be better if everyone asked their questions themselves. I was sure, nonetheless, that Mr Zlobin would cope without extra help.
Suddenly the doors opened wide and two luxurious German cars drove to the entrance. Mr Bagapsh went out of the first car, and the security officers accompanying him – from the second.
With the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia he status of Sergey Bagapsh and Eduard Kokoity grew by one car of the kind at least.
Answering a question of a Chinese political analyst, Mr Bagapsh stated that his republic doesn’t apply for help to anyone.
“We ask only one thing: do not impede our development!” (Presumably, the remark didn’t concern Russia – A.K.)
Sergey Bagapsh didn’t tell anything new. It would be silly of you to expect something else from him. And the experts didn’t even bother.
South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity also behaved as usual, but before the audience like that it looked defying.
The first question asked to him related to the number of casualties in the conflict.
“Two thousand? A thousand and seven hundred? Three hundred people? We get different information,” a political analyst tried to elicit the truth.
“More than a thousand and six hundred people,” Eduard Kokoity said with confidence. “The majority of the casualties are refugees escaping from South Ossetia – they were shelled by Georgia’s tanks and artillery. Many of them were buried on the territory of South Ossetia, in different places…”
So, he meant that the death toll he mentioned was hard to check. However, a few minutes later the members of the club heard a more accurate figure from him – 1631 people.
An American correspondent asked Eduard Kokoity how much time it will take South and North Ossetias to unite. It didn’t even occur to Mr Kokoity to wonder why the journalist was sure that the two republics will unite.
“No doubt, the reunification of North and South Ossetia is the restoration of the justice,” he stated. “It’s an essential stage we must overcome. South Ossetia will join Russia!”
Then he told those gathered that someone has suggested that North Ossetia should secede from Russia to unite with South Ossetia forming an independent republic.
“We were offered recognition before Kosovo!” he exclaimed.
It was clear who offered it – those who recognized Kosovo. How did all those people manage to contact Eduard Kokoity within a short period of time?
“Yes, we’ll surely join Russia,” he reiterated.
It seemed the South Ossetian President didn’t understand who was listening to him. He either didn’t want or was unable to consider it. He didn’t bother to be evasive at all.
“Whatever the American bureau is saying now to deny having a hand in the conflict,” it was true pleasure for him to use the Soviet word “bureau” referring to the U.S. establishment as he spoke before politicians and journalists who were part and parcel of that bureau. “Indeed, American instructors trained the Georgian army!”
Eduard Kokoity didn’t seem aware of the fact that he was not in the Kremlin at that moment – he addressed a far less cordial audience. They could easily fancy that Mr Kokoity revealed Russia’s top secret plans in this war: in some years South Ossetia will ask for admission to the Russian Federation, and it will be admitted because someone promised something like that.
The recognition of South Ossetia will turn out a real annexation. No one will want to interpret it differently. And they will have the point.
Eduard Kokoity didn’t appear to take it into account. He had a more important business. He hurried to deliver his speech. And there was nothing to prevent him from doing that.
Suddenly he seemed to regain the sense of proportion remembering what these people were.
“Whatever you do to train them (Georgian military - Kommersant),” he addressed the Club members, “whatever uniform and equipment you ship, they are good-for-nothing: they retreated like cowards! As to the masculinity of that man (Mr Saakashvili – A.K.), I wouldn’t even mention it – it is simply absent!”
Mr Kokoity tried his best to make everything Vladimir Putin could state in two hours during his meeting with the Club members seem an act of peacefulness and humility.
But what the Russian Prime Minister said later had nothing to do with the possible intention of Mr Kokoity. Vladimir Putin got outraged as soon as he heard the first question. It risked becoming the last one. The Prime Minister had said that his position is honest, open and blunt. But I couldn’t have imagined that he will be so uncompromising.
Political analyst Jonathan Still asked him about the disproportionate use of force in South Ossetia, about the reasons why Russian bombers smashed Gori and Poti. Mr Still spoke for long. Apparently, that very word combination – the disproportionate use of force – made Vladimir Putin blow his top.
“I’m not surprised to hear this question,” he said. “I’m surprised at the might of the so-called West’s propaganda machine! Fantastic! Amazing! It’s disgraceful! Nonetheless, the disgrace is out there! Fantastic! Well, I know, people are suggestible. Besides, an ordinary person doesn’t follow developments attentively. It’s easy to impose a viewpoint on them. But I don’t believe that the people in this hall are unaware of the reality, the way it all went. Here is the truth: Georgia’s armed forces began their operation to restore constitutional order, as they put it.”
He listed the events in their chronological order giving many details (much more than Mr Kokoity did), and I was astonished to see frightened Mr Still nod permanently. His seat was opposite Vladimir Putin’s one, the table was a large oval, and the Prime Minister couldn’t have reached Mr Still even if he’d attempted. For all that, Jonathan Still seemed to be considering that opportunity.
“Congratulations!” the Prime Minister went on. “I want to congratulate everyone engaged in it. Pretty good job. But the result is bad. And it’ll always be so if your policy is immoral. An immoral policy always loses”
A cameraman whispered to a correspondent standing next to him, “3.54!” It is done to easily find a quotation in a time study: Vladimir Putin uttered it at the end of the fourth minute of his speech. A quotation of this kind would be enough for the whole article.
“So, it was necessary to wipe away the bloody sniffles and bow the head?” Mr Putin asked Mr Still.
He shook his head: no, it was unnecessary.
“4.30,” the cameraman whispered, and the correspondent put it down.
“Indeed, we went beyond South Ossetia, because there was military infrastructure there,” Mr Putin continued. “What did you expect us to do? To brandish a penknife?”
“4.52.”
“Did you expect us to use a forked stick there?”
“5.05!”
“They should have understood we would deliver a blow in their mug!”
“5.07…”
“This said, I explained the military aspect. Now,” the Prime Minister spoke in complete silence, which even seemed undue. “What did the World War 2 start with? What did it end with? Did they intend to stop at the Russian border? Just to fire a bit from there and leave?”
After it Vladimir Putin said abruptly, “So, let’s negotiate for it!”
Experts looked at one another. They must have been thrown into confusion.
Meanwhile Vladimir Putin offered an excursus of the Kosovo recognition (“We swallowed it!” – “11.03!”).
“That’s why Russian President Dmitry Medvedev proposed peaceful conflict settlement principles,” Mr Putin finished with pleasure, leaving the experts at sixes and sevens.
Meanwhile we learnt that Mr Kokoity had disavowed his statement over the inevitable reunification of the two Ossetias. He said they misunderstood him and that he meant a different thing.
He must have been prompted to realize his mistake. (It’s unlikely that he should have understood it without any help). However, it was difficult, even hardly possible, I’d say, to misunderstand his phrase “We’ll certainly join Russia!” But several editions managed to do it all the same.
The Valdai Club meeting lasted for some three hours. Mr Putin had much to astonish you with.
For example, he said that when he was in China, he met with the country’s leaders and told them he was aware of China’s problems with Taiwan and other challenges of that kind, and he stated that he won’t “plague” the Chinese government with the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Besides, Vladimir Putin sent a clear message that he had the recognition of independence in mind back on August 8.
Vladimir Putin once again defended U.S. President George Bush regardless of the complicated situation in the U.S.-Russian relations after August 8, “I treat Bush better than many Americans.”
Answering a question how he’d react if it was possible to annihilate a nuclear weapons class, for example, ground nukes, Vladimir Putin stated unexpectedly that if he’d been told about it two or three years ago, he would have frankly replied he didn’t believe in it, but now he’d say that the world can’t abandon nukes totally, but it’s unlikely that all countries involved will agree to it – it’s better to start doing it yourself first. It was the statement to impress the Club members the most – the effect was even stronger than Vladimir Putin’s statement regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
As to his relations with Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin said that the former is commander-in-chief and no tank or soldier will move without his order. At the same time Mr Putin insisted that Dmitry Medvedev was free to decide what to do.
“How long will you work as Prime Minister?” asked Nikolai Zlobin, who had been preparing his question.
“As long as God wants it,” replied Vladimir Putin realizing that he won’t cope without outer help.
Andrey Kolesnikov
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 12, 2008
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