Genre photo. A drop of water on a coin. The inscription reads: "The Bank of Russia."
Photo: Ivan Makeev
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Summer Surge in Import Made the CBR Apprehensive
Of all statistics, the indicators of Russia’s foreign trade in August are, perhaps, the most expected data. Both the CBR and the Federal Customs Service release their estimates at least with a month delay. The data on July export and import was provided only past week.
Under the data of the Federal Customs Service, the unsteady dynamics of import growth eventually led to the increase in its growth rates. But the oil was rather expensive then (above $120/bbl), the ruble was appreciating, and both the export and import growth manifested the record pace at that time.
The export stepped up 53.2 percent on year (to $282.2 billion) and the import went up 48.2 percent (to $151.5 billion) in the first seven months of this year. The import worth soared 13.5 percent on month in July, the export increased 7.2 percent, and the seven-month trading balance reached $130.7 billion.
According to the CBR data, the surplus of Russia’s foreign trade stepped up 1.49 percent to $19.1 billion in July; the June indicator was $18.862 billion.
The situation was different in August. First the CBR shifted from the policy of foreign-exchange targeting to the policy of inflation targeting. The oil prices went down and the oil export stagnated, while the ruble continued to appreciate. More likely than not, the trading balance suffered material losses in August, while the import rates were in line with July performance or even higher than the April record of 50 percent on year. The capital outflow that gained momentum in August couldn’t be ignored either. And last but not least, exactly the August indicators will show the effect of Russia’s clashes with Georgia for South Ossetia on export and import achievements of the country.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 11, 2008
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