French President Nicolas Sarkozy (foreground) is prepared to cover Russian President Dmitry Medvedev against attacks from the EU, but only in exchange for serious concessions.
Photo: Alexander Miridonov
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Enforced Victory
// Pres. Says It’s Over in Georgia
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced the end of the military operation in Georgia yesterday. Russian forces have achieved all their goals and “the aggressor has been punished.” French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the main mediator in the conflict, admitted after meetings in the Kremlin that peace has not been attained yet. The condition on it is Georgia’s complete renunciation of all claims on South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia will be forced to accept unpleasant losses too, however.
A War with No End
Medvedev made the announcement of the end of the war several hours before the arrival of the French president, who has been the chief mediator in negotiations between Russia and Georgia. Meeting with the Russian Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff Nikolay Makarov, Medvedev announced that “the goal of the operation has been achieved, the safety of our peacekeepers and the civilian population has been restored, the aggressor has been punished and has borne very significant losses, its armed forces have been disorganized.” In connection with that, the president announced, he has “made the decision to end the operation to enforce peace.”
It is obvious, however, that the conflict is not over. First, Medvedev has said that, should centers of violence arise in South Ossetia, Russian forces should eliminate the resistance. Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff Anatoly Nogovitsyn explained that the decision to cease fire did not mean that the Russian armed forces would not carry out other activities of a military nature on the territory of Georgia, including intelligence.
More importantly, with the end of military actions, a new fight begins – for the right to call oneself the victor. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili announced at a meeting in Tbilisi soon after Medvedev’s announcement that Georgia had won the war.
Medvedev had to prove his victory at negotiations with the French president. The negotiations lasted about four hours. The presidents also dined in that time and were joined for dinner by Russian President Vladimir Putin. After the negotiations, the presidents held a press conference, at which they said that peace had yet to be attained, but they have agreed on a plan. It consists of six points: the nonuse of force, a final cessation of military action, a guarantee of free access to humanitarian aid, the return of Georgian armed forces to their permanent bases, while Russia forces will return to the lines that preceded the beginning of the military actions. The final two points were written with particular care: until international mechanisms are created, Russian peacekeeping forces will take extra security measures, and the world community will begin a discussion of the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and the path to guaranteeing them stable security.
A journalist from Liberation asked the French president why there was no mention of Georgia’s territorial integrity in the points listed. Sarkozy answered at great length that it is a good thing Russia will acknowledge Georgia’s sovereignty, and this is not the time to talk about Georgia’s territorial integrity. Medvedev explained how he understands the last point. “Can the Ossetians and Abkhazians want to live within Georgia? That question has to be posed to them. And they will give their unambiguous answer,” he said.
After the press conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed that the status of the two unrecognized republics will be settled in the near future. A Kommersant source in the French Foreign Ministry stated that the point can be considered a compromise: The European Union can agree to the separation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but only if Russia renounces other demands, such as Saakashvili’s immediate resignation.
Counting Up the Points
The topic of regime change in Georgia did not come up during the two president’s press conference, but the Russian foreign minister spoke about it in some detail yesterday. “We are proceeding from the position that Mr. Saakashvili can no longer be our partner, and it would be best if he stepped down,” Lavrov said. “Saakashvili hasn’t even thought to be penitent and continually claims that he is right killing our citizens and citizens and giving the order for tanks to crush women and children.”
Lavrov also mentioned his recent conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, during which he said that Russia is not making Saakashvili’s resignation obligatory for the cessation of military operations, but it thinks that it would be better, if he left. Lavrov was indignant that Rice considered it appropriate to telephone her European colleagues and say that the Russian foreign minister told her that Russia had decided to overthrow Saakashvili and only then will it cease military operations. “Someone even wrote that nonsense into a speech that President Bush was supposed to read,” Lavrov said. U.S. President George W. Bush did state in a speech on the White House lawn that he would not allow the overthrowing of the democratically elected president of Georgia. “Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century,” Bush said.
A Kommersant source in the Russian Foreign Ministry said yesterday that Russia does not object to Saakashvili’s remaining in office, although no one in Russia will speak to him any more and European diplomats will have to have to engage in go-between diplomacy to link Moscow and Tbilisi.
One more important issue for determining the victor in the war is the presence of peacekeepers in the conflict zone. Medvedev concluded the joint press conference with Sarkozy by stating that “Our peacekeepers will continue to fulfill their function, because they are a key factor is guaranteeing security in the Caucasus. That’s how it was and that’s how it will be.” Saakashvili was announcing the denunciation of the peacekeeping mission at the same time and called the Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia occupiers. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza has already thrown support behind that position, saying that Russia committed serious aggression on the territory of Georgia and is no longer a peacekeeper there.
Sarkozy stated that European peacekeepers are ready to go to the conflict zone, but the issue has to be settled in steps. Obviously, there is no reason to expect a serious concession from the EU in the question. In the course of potential settlement of the status of the unrecognized republics, the world community will insist that international forces control the conflict zone. Georgia and South Ossetia will be discussed in Brussels by the foreign ministers of the EU under the chairmanship of French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. Kommersant has learned that the presidents of Poland and the Baltic countries are insisting that Sarkozy call an emergency EU summit, although he announced at yesterday’s press conference that it was too early for the EU heads of state to meet, since Georgia had yet to respond to his peace plan.
The Russian idea of organizing an international tribunal on genocide and ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia was not developed yesterday. The presentation of the Russian argument in Brussels by Russian representative to NATO Dmitry Rogozin was cancelled. The session of the Russia-NATO Council was called off at the initiative of the United States. Lavrov complained to journalists that the U.S. is not letting Russia use terms such as “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing.” Sarkozy also stated that he does not intend to discuss accusations made by Moscow against Tbilisi, referring Moscow directly to the International Criminal Court. Chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Luis Moreno-Ocampo confirmed yesterday that the court had received communications concerning the situation in South Ossetia and an investigation into it was highly likely. He did not specify which warring side the documents were received from. Tbilisi had announced that it petitioned the International Criminal Court to investigate the events.
International Disorganization
Certain clarity came into the relationship between Georgia and NATO yesterday. Unlike the Russia-NATO Council, a Georgia-NATO council took place. Revaz Beshidze, Georgian ambassador to NATO, stated that it was NATO’s refusal to give Georgia a membership action plan for the alliance that encouraged Russia to wage war. “That refusal gave Russia the signal to attack Georgia,” he said. Those present at the session in effective agreed. After the session, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that words of solidarity and support had been uttered for Georgia. He called Georgia the organization’s friend and partner. De Hoop Scheffer also accused Russia of disproportionate use of force and said that Russia had violated Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He also assured Tbilisi that the decision to consider providing it with a membership action plan in December remains in force. Kommersant sources in European diplomatic circles say that not all of the NATO countries are in favor of that decision, however.
Several international organizations may undergo configurational changes due to the war. Saakashvili announced Georgia’s withdrawal from the CIS yesterday and called on Ukraine and other state to do so as well. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported that it had not received any official communication from Tbilisi and so could not comment on that suggestion. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and the presidents of Poland and the Baltic states arrived in Tbilisi late yesterday evening to show their support for Saakashvili. It is possible that Yushchenko will make a decision about his country’s membership in the CIS soon. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Denisov stated yesterday that Russia regrets Georgia’s decision, and he recalled that certain procedures are necessary for leaving the CIS.
Deputy speaker of the Estonian parliament Kristina Ojuland urged yesterday that Russia be ejected from the Council of Europe. She told Kommersant that she had already discussed the matter with chairman of the PACE political affairs committee Goran Lindblad and filed a formal application to consider the topic at the next session of the PACE. “It won’t be the first time the issue of depriving Russia of its vote has been raised,” she told Kommersant. “But last time, it was because of the situation in Chechnya, which is part of the Russian Federation. Now the situation is much more serious, since it is a matter of an attack on a sovereign state.”
Finally, one more consequence of the war may be the exclusion of Russia from the Group of Eight, at least temporarily. Yesterday, the heads of the foreign ministries of the G7 discussed the situation in Georgia, without inviting Lavrov. When a U.S. State Department representative was asked when Russia’s Lavrov was not included in the meeting, he replied, “We just didn’t call him.”
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Aug. 13, 2008
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