Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (center), Minister of Defense Anatoly Serdyukov (left) and commander of strategic missile forces Nikolay Solovets visit the 54th Division of Rocket Strategic Missile Forces, May 15, 2008.
Photo: Alexander Miridonov
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The Defense Ministry Acknowledges U.S.
// A superpower
The Russian military considers the main threat to the country actions by the West and acknowledges “the growing technological and military technology supremacy of the leading overseas countries.” Those conclusions are contained in fragments of the draft “Concept for the Development of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation through 2030,” prepared by the Defense Ministry and published Friday by the Interfax information agency.
The authors of the concept suggest that Russia is entering an era of crises at various levels and military threats will not be reduced, but rather grow. It is noted in the draft concept that the most substantial danger in the coming years is that “to provide legitimacy for its unilateral actions, the West will try to obtain international legal recognition of the North Atlantic Alliance as a united organization with the right to use force on the basis of the decisions of its own governing organs.” The document notes that “considering the continuity of Washington’s foreign policy, [and] the content of the long-term programs for military construction, it can be assumed that military supremacy will be seen in the United States as an important condition for the successful realization of its foreign policy… and the American military presence will be preserved in all key regions of the world.”
Mikhail Barabanov, lead expert at the Center for the Strategy and Technology Analysis, commented that “The estimation of the military and political state of the world in 2030 made in the new Defense Ministry document shows that Russia will have to live in world where the U.S. will still dominate and will try to preserve its world dominance through aggressive methods.”
Head of the Center for Military Prognosis Anatoly Tsyganok thinks that the U.S.’ striving is obvious, but hard to realize in view of worldwide anti-American tendencies. Objectively, Russia’s No. 1 potential opponent is located in a completely different part of the world. China has many more reasons to threaten Russia territorially than NATO or the U.S. However, the increasingly strident opposition between NATO and Russia is pushing our country into China’s embrace.”
The authors of the concept acknowledge domestic problems as well as they list the challenges they are confronting. The most fundamental of them is the widening gap between Western sources of external threat and the ability of the Russian armed forces to deflect them. The military admits a growing lag in reaction to “the growing technological and military technology supremacy over Russia of the leading overseas countries, which allows them to outstrip [Russia] in developing means for armed battle of the next generation and to equip their armed forces with them on a mass scale.”
The Russia military will not be sitting on its hands, however. It is noted in the concept that the strategic missile forces will continue to turn out new fixed and mobile missile complexes and to improve tactical management and communications. Simultaneously, the air and naval components of the strategic and offensive forces will be developed as well. In addition, an air and space defense system is planned to counter threats in the air. At present, Russia has 762 carrier missile loaded with 3373 nuclear warheads, and the U.S. has 986 missiles with 4116 warheads. A number of experts say that Russia’s nuclear potential will decline until it restores full-scale production of nuclear arms.
The Russian military will not forget the tried and true methods either. The 2030 concept suggests maintaining mandatory military service. It is recommended to leave the draft age (18-27) and service term (12 months) unchanged.
\nThe final version of the concept will be submitted to Defense Secretary Anatoly Serdyukov in September.
Ivan Konovalov
All the Article in Russian as of Aug. 04, 2008
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