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British Scientists Say This Year Will Be Hottest Ever
Weather forecasters at the British Meteorological Department say that this year will be the hottest ever on the planet, with an extended warming period contributing to overall increased temperatures around the globe.
The British experts say that there is a 60-percent likelihood that this year's temperatures are likely to exceed those of 1998, the current hottest year on record, by 0.54 degrees over the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14 degrees Celsius. That average was exceeded by 0.52 degrees in 1998.
The meteorological department's prognosis is based on two factors. The first of those is greenhouse-gas emissions and aerosol emissions. Greenhouses gases cause global warming, while aerosols cause cooling.
The second factor considered is the effect of the El Niсo. El Niсo is the unusually warm ocean stream that passes the northwestern coast of North America and, experts think, influences annual climate change more than anything else. A moderate-strength El Niсo has already been established in the Pacific, and is expected to persist through the first few months of 2007. The lag between El Niсo and the full global surface temperature response means that the warming effect of El Niсo is extended and, therefore, has a greater influence the global temperatures during the year.
www.kommersant.com
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