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Nov. 20, 2008
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Gov't Expects 2 More Yrs. of the Same
The economic crisis in Russia will last two more years, according to a report on competitiveness during the world financial crisis published by a Russian State Council working group, Vedomosti newspaper writes. According to the report, the Russian GDP will grow 7.4 percent in 2008, as compared to the 7.8 percent predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development. The country’s economy will grow only by 3 percent in 2009, according to the report, although the federal budget for 2009-2011 approved by the State Duma and Federation Council is based on a growth rate of 6.7 percent.
The State Council report does not touch on inflation, but the authors of the report think that consumer prices, especially for food and other necessities, will grow at an increasing rate. Inflation has already reached 12 percent in Russia since the beginning of the year, although the Ministry of Economic Development’s official forecast for the year was 11.8 percent.

The report also predicts that, if oil prices drop to $50 per barrel, the deficit in the Russian budget will exceed 1 percent of the GDP. Eighty percent of the country’s exports, including natural gas, petroleum products, metals and fertilizer, have decreased in value because of falling oil prices. Finance Minister Alexey Kudrin had stated previously that the budget would remain in the black as long as oil sold for $70 per barrel.

At the beginning of the month, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2008-2009. It lowered its forecast GDP growth from 7 to 6.8 percent in 2008, and from 5.5 to 3.5 percent in 2009.

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